lynxcat

I still have some big limit buys on levels that I hope we don’t reach. If we do, then I’ll be sad.

Chat GPT on Kiper for the last 20 years in projecting QBs.

Alright, let’s dive into it — assessing Mel Kiper Jr.’s accuracy in evaluating quarterback talent over the last 20 years (2005–2024) is a fascinating project.

High-level summary first:
• Kiper is respected for his deep research and historical knowledge, but like all draft analysts, he has not been highly predictive when it comes to quarterbacks.
• QB is the hardest position to project, and Mel has had some big hits, some big misses, and a lot of average calls.
• Overall, his QB evaluations are better than the random media narrative, but worse than the best NFL front offices.

I’ll break this down for you in a simple structure:

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Mel Kiper’s QB Evaluation Accuracy (2005–2024)

Type Examples Summary
Big Wins Loved Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Josh Allen (despite low college completion %), Justin Herbert Accurately identified long-term starters and stars, even when there were doubts.
Big Misses Jimmy Clausen (Top 5 grade, bust), Jake Locker (Top 10), Johnny Manziel (Top 5), Zach Wilson (Top 2 in 2021) Overhyped players who flamed out quickly.
Underrated Stars He was lower on Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts (had Day 2 grades) Struggled to predict some of the modern dual-threat breakouts.
Good Predictions vs. Consensus Had doubts about Blaine Gabbert, Paxton Lynch, Christian Ponder, who all flopped When he trusted his scouting over hype, he often nailed bust predictions.
Trends Favors size, arm strength, and “traditional” pocket traits Sometimes slow to fully embrace new dual-threat or non-traditional QB playstyles.



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General Observations
• When he trusted his own board rather than hype (e.g., doubting Gabbert or Ponder), he was often right.
• When he bet heavily on traits over production (like with Clausen or Locker), he often missed.
• New era mobile QBs (Lamar, Hurts) surprised him — he was a little old school about mobility at first, though he’s adapted more recently.
• Overall predictive accuracy on QBs is about 50/50 — roughly matching NFL GM success rates (because even they miss big on QBs).

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Examples: Major Cases

Year QB Kiper’s Grade Reality Hit or Miss?
2008 Matt Ryan #1 overall player Multi-year Pro Bowler, MVP Hit
2010 Jimmy Clausen Top 5 player Massive Bust Miss
2011 Cam Newton Top pick, very high on him MVP, Super Bowl Hit
2011 Jake Locker Top 10 grade Out of league quickly Miss
2017 Patrick Mahomes Mid-to-late 1st round grade Arguably GOAT trajectory Mild Miss (but NFL missed too)
2018 Josh Allen Supported him despite concerns Superstar Big Hit
2018 Lamar Jackson Late 1st/early 2nd MVP Mild Miss
2020 Justin Herbert High grade despite “college questions” Superstar Hit
2021 Zach Wilson Very high on him Bust Miss



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If you had to give Mel Kiper a “QB Scouting Grade”
• Compared to the NFL: Better than average GM results (~50% hit rate), but not elite.
• Compared to other analysts: Top 25%, ahead of most major media guys, but guys like Daniel Jeremiah (more recently) might be trending better.
• Score: B to B- overall for QB evaluation over the last 20 years.

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Summary of Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths Weaknesses
Excellent at evaluating arm talent, mechanics, leadership. Overweights traditional size/traits, underweights improvisational ability early on.
Good instincts on bust potential when media gets hyped. Sometimes blinded by pre-draft hype, especially from blue blood schools.
Adapting over time — more respect now for mobility and creativity. Missed the full breakout potential of guys like Mahomes and Jackson.



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I do not understand the run up on gold. It's so rooted in historic storage of value but was a completely different era of human existence.

30% of gross probably lands you 50% of take home. That’s not leaving much wiggle unless you have a high income.

I’ve started using ChatGPT for random queries and it’s gotten significantly better in recent months. It’s way better than a standard google query now.

CNBC on my drive in. Typically catch the very beginning of Squawk…it’s really good and they get some great interviews / are very well connected.

SpaceX is one of the greatest companies ever created and the average person isn’t even familiar with it.

Elon is one of the greatest inventors in the history of the world.

That’s a meaningful chunk of the budget when the biggest pieces cannot be touched.

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