re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The triangles are Russian defenses and unfortunately I do not think ISW denotes what specifically each triangle represents although my understanding of it is that it's a combination of minefields and entrenchments although if I am wrong about that I hope someone will educate me.

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The triangles on the ISW map denote lines of field fortifications; trenches, bunkers, strongpoints, etc. Minefields and dragons teeth, where present, will be between these.

Brady Afriks fortification map is a good resource if you want to get an idea of the scope of the Russian field fortifications. If you zoom in and click on a red dot it will take you to a reasonable quality satellite image of that area.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=46.99282026169826%2C36.9278873918615&z=9

The below image is an example taken of Tokmak and you can clearly see the ring of trenches around it.

It appears Netherlands have confirmed they will supply F-16's to Ukraine, they currently have 42.

https://nos.nl/liveblog/2486582-nederland-en-denemarken-leveren-gevechtsvliegtuigen-zelensky-voor-tweede-keer-in-nederland

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Rutte confirms delivery of F-16s to Ukraine
Prime Minister Rutte has confirmed that the Netherlands and Denmark will supply F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine. He did this at the press conference in Eindhoven, which also includes Ukrainian President Zelensky. Friday it was already announced that the United States had given the green light for the delivery of the American aircraft. As soon as the training of the first group of Ukrainian pilots has been completed, the aircraft may be transferred, Minister Blinken of Foreign Affairs said.

At the press conference, Rutte called the delivery the next step in cooperation between Ukraine and the Netherlands. Next Thursday is Independence Day in Ukraine. According to Rutte, it may be bitter to celebrate a big party while a war is going on. He said to continue working with Ukraine "until it is Independence Day there every day".

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No clarity on quantity of F-16s yet
President Zelensky says that after training Ukrainian pilots and technical personnel, outgoing Prime Minister Rutte will discuss the amount of F-16s delivered to his country.

Rutte announced that the Netherlands still has 42 aircraft. "We need a number of these to help with training in Denmark and later also in Romania. We are going to see if we can supply the rest of the devices, but we do not yet know how many exactly we can deliver."

It is also unclear when that delivery will take place. In addition to pilot training, other matters must also be taken into account. For example, the infrastructure in Ukraine must be in order before the F-16s can operate there, Rutte said.

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Just want our money but not our opinions?

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Probably your grandpappy's tax dollars considering mostly retired forever equipment and the tone of your comment puts you a millenial mentality

On the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis, the density of the minefields near the front was a much bigger problem for Ukraine than they or their western partners had anticipated. Not only on the disastrous first day of the Ukrainian offensive which produced all the pics of dead Bradleys, but for a long while afterwards, Ukraine made minimal progress.

The Russian fortification lines do not, themselves, present great difficulty to Ukraine. Ukraine has already broken through one line near Robotyne. A trench or a spike pyramid isn't as big of a problem as a mine, because they don't blow up Ukrainian vehicles and can be cleared.

Ukraine has also gotten much better at demining since the start of the offensive. What is working very well for them now is using thermal drones to map the mines right after dark. When Ukraine knows where the mines are, the problem becomes much more manageable.

But all the Russian lines of fortification don't mean anything if Russia lacks the ability to defend them.

As the Ukrainian offensive began, many military analysts thought that Russia would defend lightly and carefully above its fortified lines, and then defend those lines with great force.

But that isn't what's happened. Russia has fought very hard above those lines and is taking very significant losses, such as at Urozhaine.

Look at the geolocated artillery losses since the start of the offensive (as of August 16th):



Both sides are suffering significant attrition, but Russia's continual loss of artillery on the front during this offensive is gradually weakening their ability to resist.

Again, a trench means nothing unless it can be defended.

We are seeing more towed artillery losses for Russia vs self-propelled. For shoot and scoot u obviously want self propelled. The fact that Russia is heavy in artillery is a given but those numbers are mostly stockpiles of towed.

What they are short on is self propelled. Western donated artillery and smart munitions coupled with counter battery radar is currently an advantage for Ukraine.

Russia use of drones is their strength right now

A Russian Tu-22M Strategic Bomber was destroyed by a Ukrainian Kamikaze Drone at Russia’s Soltsy Air Base, ~660km from Ukraine

This is the first visually confirmed destruction of a Russian Strategic Bomber in the war, at least two others were previously damaged by drones

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It happens every time Russia is publicly perceived to be doing well in the war and Ukraine is perceived to be doing poorly, and that is somehow the public perception right now (e.g. there's a Washington Post front-page story right now entitled "Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory")

But the public perception is often wrong, and I think it is now. The newer trolls here should know that I don't always look at the war through blue-and-yellow colored glasses -- I was very negative about prospects for the Ukrainian offensive before cluster munitions arrived.

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I'll agree that you have an unbiased take occasionally but you have the blue & yellow glasses back on 5 minutes later. Based on your predicted outcomes, you gave it a 0% chance that Ukraine accomplished none of those goals, and maybe they will, but it's not looking promising at the moment. So I am not buying the whole "things are going according to plan" and that public perception is wrong.

Things clearly aren’t “going to plan” from a strategic standpoint and the US government has said so.

That said, 20/20 hindsight kind of begs the question as to what, exactly, decision makers were looking at to think this was going to be a quick event.

NATO doctrine relies on, at the very least, contested air space.

I recall some news pundit with foreign policy experience saying something very salient at the beginning of this war after the attack on Kyiv failed.

“I have spent my whole life convincing people Russia is not 12 feet tall. Now I will have to constantly remind them Russia is not 4-feet short” or something to that effect.