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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/20/23 at 11:26 am to LSUEnjoyer
Posted on 8/20/23 at 11:26 am to LSUEnjoyer
quote:
Russia is suffering a greater level of attrition than Ukraine despite Ukraine being the side on the offensive. That is objectively illogical.
Can we go back in time and post this for the pro Russian trolls who are claiming 8:1 losses (Ukraine to Russia) despite Russia being on the offensive
1
Posted on 8/20/23 at 11:45 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Can we go back in time and post this for the pro Russian trolls who are claiming 8:1 losses (Ukraine to Russia) despite Russia being on the offensive
I think all objective people here know that the real number of casualties on either side is not known.
We do get some realistic estimates, but even those are subject to speculation.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 12:14 pm to doubleb
MishaBear is probably the person I'd recommend to follow - he has family in both Russia and all over Ukraine and he is the only one truly reporting on Zelenskyy's unpopularity all over rural Ukraine. Flags are far less common than they used to be and many of the blue / yellow "flags" that have been painted on light posts all over Ukraine since 2014 have now been painted over in white as a symbol of disillusionment and distress over the Cabal now running the country through Zelenskyy.
They are all Christian and despise the globalist puppet for persecuting so many churches and for also canceling elections to protect his own sweaty hide. He breaks down how many love Ukraine but feel that Ukraine has been hijacked by foreign powers and the shots are being called from Western Europe and perhaps Israel.
They are all Christian and despise the globalist puppet for persecuting so many churches and for also canceling elections to protect his own sweaty hide. He breaks down how many love Ukraine but feel that Ukraine has been hijacked by foreign powers and the shots are being called from Western Europe and perhaps Israel.
This post was edited on 8/20/23 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 8/20/23 at 12:48 pm to ColtRange
It's actually amazing how wrong GOPe_Tiger always is.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 1:25 pm to bucknut
quote:
It's actually amazing how wrong GOPe_Tiger always is.
I can't imagine the time this guy puts into following this war.
It's unhealthy.
Poring over maps and strategizing like some general.
It's truly bizarre.
I think he needs help.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 2:07 pm to ColtRange
quote:
I'll agree that you have an unbiased take occasionally but you have the blue & yellow glasses back on 5 minutes later. Based on your predicted outcomes, you gave it a 0% chance that Ukraine accomplished none of those goals, and maybe they will, but it's not looking promising at the moment. So I am not buying the whole "things are going according to plan" and that public perception is wrong.
Well, you are certainly correct that the Ukrainian offensive has not played out the way that I -- or anyone else -- expected.
Everyone expected Ukraine to fight the way that they tried to on the first day of the offensive, to use combined arms tactics to try to smash through Russian lines. Obviously, the Ukrainian military expected the offensive to work that way as well, which is why they began the offensive that way.
That failed spectacularly, as we all know, and the Ukrainians completely changed their plan to one of attrition. Even then, though, it wasn't working and wouldn't have worked -- without cluster munitions.
So, I thought that Ukraine would use up its equipment in the offensive. That's why I and everyone else thought that if Ukraine hadn't succeeded in about two months, that the offensive would be a failure.
But Ukraine isn't "using up" it's men and equipment in the fight.
LSUEnjoyer couldn't be more wrong here:
quote:
You are assuming Russia is suffering a greater level of attrition than Ukraine despite Ukraine being the side on the offensive. That is objectively illogical.
Here's a link to the person keeping the table of open-source equipment losses on the southern front in Zaporizhzhia and southern Donetsk Oblasts (the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis and the Velyka Novosilka - Staromlynivka axis): LINK. As of two days ago:
quote:
Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 18 August 2023.
In summary: 348 UA losses vs. 331 RU losses
But look at the spreadsheet and sort it by date, and you'll see that Ukrainian losses were sky-high at the start of the offensive, and Russian losses have been much higher since.
In fact, from the start of the offensive through June 11, there were 102 Ukrainian losses to only 33 Russian losses. Since then, there have been 299 Russian equipment losses in the South, compared to only 246 Ukrainian losses.
So, every day, the balance of power on the front is shifting more towards Ukraine. Of course, Russia is moving more equipment to the front to replace losses, but that gets harder all the time as Ukraine clamps down on supply routes.
And that's why I'm more confident now about the ultimate success of Ukraine's offensive:
1) Ukraine is preserving the strength of its force as it advances.
2) Every kilometer that Ukraine advances makes Russian logistics more difficult. When Ukraine takes Staromlynivka, that will put Mariupol squarely in HIMARS range, and a little further than that will put the Russian helicopter base in Berdyansk in range. Further west, Ukraine doesn't have to actually take Tokmak to mess up Russian logistics; if they take push south to the east of the town and cut the railway, it makes Russian supply all have to come by truck, and it would put Melitopol in the range of regular artillery.
I don't even think that the Ukrainian offensive will end with the arrival of mud season, since so much of the work now happens with dismounted infantry.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 2:17 pm to Tiger985
quote:
I can't imagine the time this guy puts into following this war.
It's unhealthy.
Poring over maps and strategizing like some general.
It's truly bizarre.
I think he needs help.
War may be hell for those involved in it, but, from afar, it's also fascinating. Lots of people enjoy reading books about the strategy and tactics of war, and I'm certainly one of them. When I was a junior in high school (some 33 years ago), I spent my Christmas break reading five different books on the siege of Vicksburg, because I wanted to understand it.
This is the first conflict in history where we can get so much of that information in real time, instead of having to read about it years later in books.
Do you not have any hobbies or interests where you try to understand something? I want to understand this war, because it shows us all the ways that warfare is changing, as well as the ways that are the same as they have always been.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 3:17 pm to SirWinston
quote:
and perhaps Israel.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 4:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
The nature of war is changing before our eyes in nearly real time.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 4:41 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
It appears Netherlands have confirmed they will supply F-16's to Ukraine, they currently have 42.
I wonder how long it will take experienced fighter pilots to adapt to the F16.
I saw a while back that Poland had given Ukraine aircraft that allowed them become like Wild Weasels and fire American anti-radiation missiles.
This post was edited on 8/20/23 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 8/20/23 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Since then, there have been 299 Russian equipment losses in the South, compared to only 246 Ukrainian losses.
That’s an unsustainable loss rate if your intention is to remain on the offensive. In fact, if you know the size of the reserves Ukraine has at its disposal for this offense, it’s a simple mathematical equation to calculate the point at which their forces will be exhausted. The same is true for Russia. It’s devolved into a war of pure attrition. The matter will be decided by who reaches the point of exhaustion first.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 4:59 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Andrey Medvedev, Russian journalist & member of Moscow City Council:
“It was a year ago. Late in the evening of the 20th, I received a call from an acquaintance, an employee of a certain organization, who told me that Dasha Dugina had been killed and that it was definitely a terrorist attack.
The next day we met Vladlen, who had just returned from the front. We sat, drank coffee, talked about the war. And then Max said he wanted to go to the place where Dasha had been killed to lay flowers. So, we went.
A year ago, it seems like a lifetime ago. The Kharkov retreat hadn't happened yet. We were still holding Kherson. Arnie Ogneborets, Igor “Bereg” Mangushev, Vladlen were still alive. Mobilization hadn't started yet, there were no UAV strikes on Moscow.
But in general, the day Dasha Dugina was killed was the day when many people came to a new understanding of what was happening. That this war is not against the Kremlin or the regime. It's literally against all of us. That this is a war of terrorism. That the enemy kills just for words and thoughts that seem dangerous. Dasha's murder made many people who neither supported the war nor sympathized with the authorities see the West with different eyes. When the mainstream media began to write understandingly and approvingly about the murder of “the daughter of the Kremlin's chief ideologue.”
We've lost a lot of people this year. I mean everyone. The country. About the families that received death notices. But have we become afraid? Weakened? Did we decide to surrender? Were we broken by Izyum and Kherson, by strikes on the Crimean Bridge or our cities?
Of course not. The war correspondents didn't stop filming, the volunteers didn't stop raising money and going to the front, those public people, who weren't afraid to speak out before, continue to do so now. Our warriors, both professional and mobilized, continue to fight to the death. Their heroic women continue to wait and believe. Yes, waiting for your man to return from war is heroism.
Time passes, but the bitterness of loss does not become less, and the pain will never finally go away. But we all believe that our brothers and sisters in Christ, Dasha, Vladlen, Arnie, Rostislav, Bereg, and hundreds of others, are alive with God.
‘Know ye not, that so many of us as were baptized into Jesus Christ were baptized into his death?
Therefore, we are buried with him by baptism into death: that like as Christ was raised up from the dead by the glory of the Father, even so we also should walk in newness of life.
For if we have been planted together in the likeness of his death, we shall be also in the likeness of his resurrection.’
Our fallen ones are with us. And as our Lord defeated hell, so Russia will defeat her enemies.
Not soon, the way is long and difficult. But she will win.”
So not biolabs Nazis or NATO. Now it's about terrorism
LINK
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:17 pm to bucknut
quote:
It's actually amazing how wrong GOPe_Tiger always is.
He's been right way more than the poliboard Putanists.
Like 10 to 1.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:27 pm to StormyMcMan
Russian propagandists change their story on a regular basis.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:39 pm to doubleb
This account can be a little premature but tends to be accurate on the whole
LINK
quote:
Russian Sources are reporting that their Forces have now Withdrawn from the Settlement of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region with Ukrainian Elements now said to have Liberated at least 50% of the Town and entered the Central Sector
LINK
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:43 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian Sources are reporting that their Forces have now Withdrawn from the Settlement of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region with Ukrainian Elements now said to have Liberated at least 50% of the Town and entered the Central Sector
There are Ukrainian reports hinting at that too. Russia no longer holds any of Robotyne. Ukraine holds the northern part of the town, and the southern part of the town is in the gray zone.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:47 pm to bucknut
quote:
It's actually amazing how wrong GOPe_Tiger always is.
I've written numerous times in this thread that my opinions are worth what you pay for them. I claim no military expertise. I don't post here to try to generate some kind of following or something. The reason that I post here is that the regulars on this board help each other understand the war, by pointing out things that others have missed. If I post something dumb, I want to know why, so that I can understand.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 5:51 pm to LSUEnjoyer
quote:
Truly interesting strategy by the Ukes charging headlong into the strongest point of Russian fortifications over and over and over again.
That isn't one of the strongest points, and while it is certainly not the weakest, it is a section where the defensive depth between lines is relatively compacted and Ukraine had to attack somewhere.
If a breakthrough eventuates there is not a lot of space to trade for time to stabilise the situation as the 2 major fortification lines defending it are within several kilometres of each other. With the slow progress thus far this may be a moot point, a lot will depend on how well defended the subsequent lines are, and how quickly a retreat could be effected to them.
Comparatively the section leading directly to Melitopol has at least one extra major fortification line which have been more heavily constructed and the defensive depth between the major lines is over 50% greater than those along the Robotyne section.
Melitopol itself is the southern strong point of a line extending south west from Tokmak between the northern access roads for Melitopol, the T0401 and E105, that overlooks the Molochna river. That whole section has been constructed on the premise they would need to defend attacks from the east.
Critically the Robotyne area has access to major logistic routes leading into Tokmak and even taking the areas to the east of Tokmak significantly weakens logistics to much of the front leading back to Dontesk for Russia and provides access south to the coast.
Many months ago there was discussion on where Ukraine would likely counter attack and Tokmak was one of the targets identified as likely to be key due to it being the centre of logistics for much of the Zaporizhzhia axis and the Russian fortification layout along with Ukraine's focus on that area confirm this in my view.
Edit: Added quote.
This post was edited on 8/20/23 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 8/20/23 at 6:06 pm to ColtRange
quote:
I'll agree that you have an unbiased take occasionally but you have the blue & yellow glasses back on 5 minutes later. Based on your predicted outcomes, you gave it a 0% chance that Ukraine accomplished none of those goals, and maybe they will, but it's not looking promising at the moment. So I am not buying the whole "things are going according to plan" and that public perception is wrong.
Maybe the salient point that you should consider from his post is the fact that you don't really bring very much to this thread, especially if the standard for posting here is to provide an 'unbiased take,' which is both a nonsensical term and one by which you don't even abide.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 6:23 pm to OutsideObserver
I agree with your post, but especially this part:
I feel certain that Ukraine is going to push east of Tokmak and south to southeast after that. One look at a topographic map will tell you why. The highest points on this map are about 1000 ft.
The further that Ukraine goes to the east, the fewer gullies and streams it will have to cross. That's important in any time, but it's especially important as mud season approaches this fall. The swampy land around Tokmak and Melitopol is ill-suited for any kind of Ukrainian action over the late fall and winter months.
If Ukraine can push past Tokmak to the east and get to the P37 highway towards Berdyansk, I think that they would try to follow it, or work east of it.
quote:
Critically the Robotyne area has access to major logistic routes leading into Tokmak and even taking the areas to the east of Tokmak significantly weakens logistics to much of the front leading back to Dontesk for Russia and provides access south to the coast.
I feel certain that Ukraine is going to push east of Tokmak and south to southeast after that. One look at a topographic map will tell you why. The highest points on this map are about 1000 ft.
The further that Ukraine goes to the east, the fewer gullies and streams it will have to cross. That's important in any time, but it's especially important as mud season approaches this fall. The swampy land around Tokmak and Melitopol is ill-suited for any kind of Ukrainian action over the late fall and winter months.
If Ukraine can push past Tokmak to the east and get to the P37 highway towards Berdyansk, I think that they would try to follow it, or work east of it.
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