WSJ: Trump thought opening Hormuz Straight was imminent, Iran had other plans

WSJ: Trump considering Iran Deal not tied to nuclear development

TLDR; Trump is likely to indefinitely extend the ceasefire and end the blockade if Iran opens the Straight for traffic, however Iran wants far more than ending the blockade as part of that deal.

“Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.”

Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House’s ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proven too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proven to be powerful leverage for the country, stalling commercial traffic and roiling global oil markets. Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those promises has proven premature.

If the U.S. can keep the nuclear program in check and traffic resumes in the strait, then Trump is more likely to extend the current ceasefire indefinitely, the officials said. Trump also is expected to lift the U.S. military blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran fully reopens the strait, they added.

One major complication for the Trump administration is money. Iran is seeking billions of dollars in war reparations in addition to an agreement to unfreeze the country’s assets around the world. Trump has said the White House wouldn’t allow any taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a deal appears unlikely without the U.S. unfreezing some assets, possibly with conditions attached.

There also is a dispute about whether the U.S. should issue waivers to let Iran sell oil on the open market. The U.S. had agreed to the waivers last June as part of an interim peace agreement with Iran. That ceasefire fell apart after Iran attacked ships in the strait, and the U.S. reinstated sanctions on the Iranian oil trade.