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re: Texas Early Voting Numbers
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:31 am to Tiger Ryno
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:31 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:
I'm telling you me and all my friends in the suburbs who early voted observed disturbing number of Biden type voters in the lines.
I saw this in inner city location too, no surprise there.
Driving outside of any major city in TX it's probably close to 75% trump supporters. Those folks don't want the urban centers to strong arm them. I expect the rural vote to be motivated to GOTV.
I will agree, TX is not trending in the right direction.
0
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:31 am to MickeyLikesDags21
quote:
If Texas voters adhere to their party affiliations, the early voting there could indicate that President Trump is on track to meet or exceed his 9 point win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, meaning the polls are understating support for Trump by an average of about 7%. If that does end up being the case, it could mean two things: political polling has gotten worse since 2016; and Texas isn’t turning blue anytime soon.
If Trump wins by more than 9, it will mean he wins by well over 1,000,000 votes in Texas.
A million.
And with Cruz running in 2024, it could mean Texas doesn't even come remotely close to turning blue until 2032.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:31 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:Quite sad.
Scruffy is sad.
I’ll just get myself ready, mentally, for the outcome I don’t want.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:33 am to MickeyLikesDags21
As a disclaimer, the NBC data is from a commercial data model.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:33 am to Scruffy
Scruffy...I talked to your dad last night. He said you better get on the Trump train or you are out of his will.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:34 am to landmanner
quote:If you actually know my dad, you already know he is giving it all to his grandson.
Scruffy...I talked to your dad last night. He said you better get on the Trump train or you are out of his will.
I got cut out 20 years ago when my youngest brother was born.
He needs a better threat.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:35 am to RebelExpress38
This is the 2016 county map from 2016....
LINK
This is the EV turnout map as a % of 2016 vote...
LINK
Highest turnout seems to be in suburban counties that were ~60-40 Trump in '16. Lower relative turnout in both deep blue counties (especially bordering Mexico) and some of the deepest red counties in the Panhandle.
Curious as to why Texas voting is so off the charts this year? Georgia, which should be a closer state, is at ~80% of 2016 turnout, FL is at ~76% turnout, WI/MI @ 55% turnout, PA @ 35% turnout, etc.
LINK
This is the EV turnout map as a % of 2016 vote...
LINK
Highest turnout seems to be in suburban counties that were ~60-40 Trump in '16. Lower relative turnout in both deep blue counties (especially bordering Mexico) and some of the deepest red counties in the Panhandle.
Curious as to why Texas voting is so off the charts this year? Georgia, which should be a closer state, is at ~80% of 2016 turnout, FL is at ~76% turnout, WI/MI @ 55% turnout, PA @ 35% turnout, etc.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:35 am to Scruffy
quote:
It is Trump versus every literal institution within the US, from the media to big tech to the entrenched government bureaucrats.
It is an enormous concentration of power and influence arrayed against him. It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen or read about in history.
If he pulls it off it will surpass his 2016 result as the greatest election victory ever.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:36 am to Scruffy
quote:
Scruffy
I like reading your posts.
You're obviously a smart guy and pulling for Trump but you're not going to set yourself up for disappointment. I think it's a healthier approach then "Trump's going to win in a landslide!!!"
Biden has a legitimate shot at this because of the forces working FOR him. My optimism stems from the hope that the majority of Americans are able to see through all of the bullshite. If Biden wins then we're truly worse off for this reason alone.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:38 am to Scruffy
quote:
Even Texas might go blue.
I don’t see this trending well for Trump.
Makes perfect sense to for Texas to go with the I'm going to kill oil candidate.
If people are willing to vote against their economic interests on that scale because the guy that would be better for their livelihood and families says mean things, then God help us.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:38 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:
If Trump wins by more than 9, it will mean he wins by well over 1,000,000 votes in Texas.
A million.
And with Cruz running in 2024, it could mean Texas doesn't even come remotely close to turning blue until 2032.
We need conservatives and right of center voters from blue states to start moving to Texas. Liberals have been moving to AZ, CO, FL, GA, NV, NC, and TX for decades. It’s time we do the same.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:39 am to GeneralLee
I have to think Trump's internals are telling him Texas is in the bag or he would have taken a day to do 3 or so rallies in the state. No way he leaves Texas to chance
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:42 am to Scruffy
Change your user nane to Negative Nancy.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:47 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:
90% of siburburban women are voting against Trump because he's a meanie.
People said that last time. He got 52% fo suburban women last time. He will get the same or more.
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 8:48 am
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:48 am to MickeyLikesDags21
quote:
As of Oct. 29, NBC News has analyzed Texas’ early and by mail voting through Oct. 26, finding that 54% of those voting early are Republican vs. 36% Democrat and 10% other or unknown. This gives the Republicans up to an 18% lead in early voting in Texas, or 8% if all the unknown and first-time voters are assigned to the Democrats.
Sad Nate Bronze has mentioned a number of times that people shouldn't read too much into early voting numbers (mainly Dems) because the traditional Dem advantage isn't there because EV is up across the board. He also has been hammering that people should ignore the national polls and that swing states are tight enough that the polls & models could be susceptible to systemic errors. Basically, he is saying this looks like '16 but with more early voting.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:51 am to Scruffy
It's fine to be concerned, but being concerned about Texas is probably wasted anxiety. Early voting has Reps up 16% (53 to 37). Reminder, Gallup has consistently polled Republican approval of Trump in the high 80s to mid 90% since this summer (currently 95%).
The 53 to 37 leaves 10% other. Even if every single other voted D, that's STILL a 6% lead in voting. Before election day voting, where Reps historically have higher turnout.
Worry about other states, go put your vote in for your preferred candidate, but don't worry about Texas.
The 53 to 37 leaves 10% other. Even if every single other voted D, that's STILL a 6% lead in voting. Before election day voting, where Reps historically have higher turnout.
Worry about other states, go put your vote in for your preferred candidate, but don't worry about Texas.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:59 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:
Texas is gonna flip. There has been massive fraud in Texas this year combined with extremely high suburban turnout and 90% of siburburban women are voting against Trump because he's a meanie.
Please refrain from watching MSM news and turn off your computer. If symptoms remain, call your doctor.
Help is available for TDS. It may require long term commitment to objectivity. It is reversible if caught in early stages.
ETA: other alternatives include:
TEXAS: NO STFU!
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 9:01 am
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:19 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Curious as to why Texas voting is so off the charts this year?
With the registered (R) showing up in such large numbers it probably has a lot to do with Biden talking down the Oil and Gas industry. As diverse as Texas' portfolio has become O&G still puts food in millions of families bellies in the state.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:27 am to Scruffy
quote:
If you actually know my dad, you already know he is giving it all to his grandson.
You dont want his Tulane memorabilia? He claims its valuable stuff.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:32 am to UGATiger26
quote:Yeah but we already have proof that dim operatives are getting paid tens of thousands of dollars in cash to cast ballots for Biden from Republican registered voters.
Umm...based on what I'm seeing, early and mail-in voting returns for Texas based on party ID is 37% D / 53% R / 10% I
Now, I'm not saying That's enough for Biden to win, but it's concerning. We take Texas for granted and the dims have been (albeit illegally) putting in major work there, and Harris and Biden still visiting TX tells me they have reason to think they can make it real close with the frickery happening.
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