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igoringa
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | South Mississippi |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 12412 |
| Registered on: | 6/29/2007 |
| Online Status: | Online |
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re: OUST - LiDAR for Physical AI and Smart Infrastructure
Posted by igoringa on 5/22/26 at 12:02 pm to HogPharmer
quote:
Jan 2027 $35c
Up 100% on 17 of these - kicking myself not going in heavier - usually sell after a double as I do not like too much in the money. Not sure yet on this whether I am going to push out the exercise price of subsidize shares - I do not want to decrease exposure.
0
re: FCEL - Speculative Fuel Cell Growth Play Similar to Bloom Energy
Posted by igoringa on 5/22/26 at 12:00 pm to bayoubengals88
Markos Tweet with 9 venture response
Interesting counter weight. Markos is pretty solid dude - 9 ventures who was the genesis of the Fairfax County find in response was fairly benign.
I picked up a few calls this morning - will probably just watch beyond that to see if this deal firms up
Interesting counter weight. Markos is pretty solid dude - 9 ventures who was the genesis of the Fairfax County find in response was fairly benign.
I picked up a few calls this morning - will probably just watch beyond that to see if this deal firms up
So the more I look at this one, the more I struggle with my investment level being too light.
I am rather tied up with big bets on other players but the more I read on this the more excited I get. have a few (17 35 Jan options and 1,600 shares) but really need to add more.
My draw to it is it is a classic two prong investment: (1) legitimate significant use opportunity into a brand new world - love the domestic aspect; and (2) we know there will be a monster physical AI pump in the future, regardless of success and they are positioned for that.
I am going to have to lift up the cushions on the couch
I am rather tied up with big bets on other players but the more I read on this the more excited I get. have a few (17 35 Jan options and 1,600 shares) but really need to add more.
My draw to it is it is a classic two prong investment: (1) legitimate significant use opportunity into a brand new world - love the domestic aspect; and (2) we know there will be a monster physical AI pump in the future, regardless of success and they are positioned for that.
I am going to have to lift up the cushions on the couch
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/22/26 at 8:19 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
So what’s your plan? As you know, we may have to pay a premium for FCEL…
Now who said I have a plan lol
My plan should have been to buy when I was down 8% pre market when I woke up to piss at 3 AM but I didnt lol
I think I am going to ease in with a few calls as a spec bet - I am just paranoid some dumbass lawyer just attached it as an example since this is not final approval stage. Unlikely but I am paranoid
and I also wanna add that the allure of a bloom energy is they provide an answer to the chokepoint now of power. Nbis deal is the perfect example. - bloom is plan C for Nbis, but it's an acceptable plan because they can do it this year - as opposed to 4-7 years.
There is no sign that the Ballard Vertu project is happening until 27 2829 at best - even if not backup but actual primary power generation.
There is no sign that the Ballard Vertu project is happening until 27 2829 at best - even if not backup but actual primary power generation.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/21/26 at 8:08 pm to bayoubengals88
my primary question on this putting aside my bias I have against Ballard earned over 30 years is this:
Everything I see about the joint venture product with vertiv is for backup generators - not the actual power generation so I'm not sure why it's being compared to bloom. for example, the test pallet they're excited about I think is 1.5 MW - that's back up level of power - replacing existing diesel generators I'm not saying that's not good but that's completely different than bloom or fcel if this 60mw leak is right.
So I guess I don't get the draw from an AI infrastructure point of view into Ballard. The existing business of bus fleet has done nothing for me for a decade as I've watched them spend half $1 billion for a business that has no real significant upside.
Outside pure momentum of association with AI I am missing the play - particularly on a short-term option basis unless you're playing momentum - as opposed to I was there for example which looks like to be in the center of the AI move - or fcel of they truly are 60 mw providers
Everything I see about the joint venture product with vertiv is for backup generators - not the actual power generation so I'm not sure why it's being compared to bloom. for example, the test pallet they're excited about I think is 1.5 MW - that's back up level of power - replacing existing diesel generators I'm not saying that's not good but that's completely different than bloom or fcel if this 60mw leak is right.
So I guess I don't get the draw from an AI infrastructure point of view into Ballard. The existing business of bus fleet has done nothing for me for a decade as I've watched them spend half $1 billion for a business that has no real significant upside.
Outside pure momentum of association with AI I am missing the play - particularly on a short-term option basis unless you're playing momentum - as opposed to I was there for example which looks like to be in the center of the AI move - or fcel of they truly are 60 mw providers
re: FCEL - Speculative Fuel Cell Growth Play Similar to Bloom Energy
Posted by igoringa on 5/21/26 at 4:01 pm to bayoubengals88
So assuming this is legit in terms of what was found - yeah this is a pretty big deal and I would think much more significant than Ballard (unless again I am misreading Ballard where its product with Vertiv is simply a KW level backup they hope to get into Mw). That is not providing the main power source for anything.
This suggests actual generation of a material amount (ie like a Bloom).
God it is hard to chase these names though - but I definitely want to look more at this
This suggests actual generation of a material amount (ie like a Bloom).
God it is hard to chase these names though - but I definitely want to look more at this
re: FCEL - Speculative Fuel Cell Growth Play Similar to Bloom Energy
Posted by igoringa on 5/21/26 at 3:02 pm to slinger1317
quote:
I owned about $1000 of this 20 years ago. It didn't move for years, so I sold it after about 5 years
Today has been a time traveling day for sure on this board. Doesn't mean it is a bad thing but this is the past decades greatest pumps being rolled out.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/21/26 at 2:17 pm to bayoubengals88
Appreciate it. I will wish you guys luck on it - I have heard that story with Ballard for 30 years now. Actually was the first stock I ever researched in my life (dating myself I know).
The 3X cash multiple is actually the highest it has been in years - for large periods of time they trade at 1X or even less.
I do not quite see the numbers turnaround when I look at the 5 year trend.
Vertiv intrigues but I do not see much from Vertiv on it and I see conflation of bring your own power vs backup - I believe this product is backup (hence 200 KW not hundreds of MW). I could be wrong though.
The legacy business has never really been profitable and they have done it for well over a decade.
Again hope for the best for you guys on this one - not for me (which is probably good for you lol).
The 3X cash multiple is actually the highest it has been in years - for large periods of time they trade at 1X or even less.
I do not quite see the numbers turnaround when I look at the 5 year trend.
Vertiv intrigues but I do not see much from Vertiv on it and I see conflation of bring your own power vs backup - I believe this product is backup (hence 200 KW not hundreds of MW). I could be wrong though.
The legacy business has never really been profitable and they have done it for well over a decade.
Again hope for the best for you guys on this one - not for me (which is probably good for you lol).
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/21/26 at 12:59 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
SO bullish the name. Or as bullish as I can be after 24 hours
So why I guess is my quesiton. Noting the company's history - noting a major shareholder dumped last week 8 million or so shares etc...
quote:
Have you figured out what you are going to do with your covered calls?
Nope - stuck in paralysis
Ballard power system? holy shite - what year is it. they were the great Canadian hope when I was in college in 1996 and 97.
quote:
while Nbis is red.
I really think it could be the Bloom Energy deal - although it may be a smart decision to lock in that power - I cannot imagine that was Plan A. The more I look into it the more I think the Vineland smoke was real - which again shows people can through around GW this and MW that - actually building and procuring in this environment is not easy.
NBIS Bloom Energy
Curious as to the others take on this.
To me I like NBIS being proactive and procuring power of any form, but (1) It leads me to wonder of the permitting issues at Vineland are more real than we thik; and (2) once again reiterates the thesis that power is the game - and so many of these announced MWs are just not going to actually happen
Curious as to the others take on this.
To me I like NBIS being proactive and procuring power of any form, but (1) It leads me to wonder of the permitting issues at Vineland are more real than we thik; and (2) once again reiterates the thesis that power is the game - and so many of these announced MWs are just not going to actually happen
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/19/26 at 7:09 pm to bayoubengals88
and the amazing part about that Google that is, it has simply just begun - the amount of compute that will be needed over the next couple years is absolutely ridiculous and will constrain
Scarped the bottom with some current week options on NBIS, CIFR, and IREN - quick 2K flip on dead cat bounce. Looks like if I held a few minutes more could have doubled or tripled that but oh well - - too many scars from the fall lol
Being marginally in a top bracket now, I just cannot rationalize to myself to do Roth at this time.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by igoringa on 5/17/26 at 4:40 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
H200 spot just hit $6.40
And this is the basis of my thesis in effect, every GPU will be in demand and utilized over the coming years. Obviously love NBIS can provide value on top of the bare rental - but it is the sheer demand for compute to me that remains the key.
Hence I play so many in the space and look at GWs under contract as my first driver
quote:
Can you imagine where we would be if we had employed the current strategy with NBIS in November? July '27 options instead of December?
would've been millions legitimately would've been retirement level
congrats!!!
my wisdom is AskJeeves was my first stock investment ever lol
Others have explained it well - this is nothing like 1999. The companies in 1999 had no profits no realistic plans or anything of the like.
Others have explained it well - this is nothing like 1999. The companies in 1999 had no profits no realistic plans or anything of the like.
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