igoringa

I remain heavy in on Iren - still absolutely loved the long-term potential.

The fact that Sweetwater will be the flagship Vera Rubin DSX project for Nvidia (per Nvidia themselves) is enough for me to hold strong

I am not familiar enough with NBIS' build out schedule.

They were sitting on $8 billion and had some room in ATM post earnings call - Doing this now I wonder if there is a major GPu buy coming or a new deal.

note offering

still blabbing on .....

Emphasizing a point made several times, I do think it is important for those that read this thread to understand the money board is not a representative sample of society in any means - and do not get caught up comparing where you are to others.

I know in my 20's and 30's I was no where near where some of the current posters are posting but managed to really gear up in my 40's and now in my early 50's we are in good shape.

The goal is a tough one as the expense side is so critical. I am still putting kids through OOS school and will for years (although 529 covers lions share until one said she wants to be an MD lol), paying Long term care for a parent etc. Probably keep plugging until that is done.

I am fortunate enough that when I call it quits I can probably consult part time as much or little as needed so it will be a staircase retirment.

NBIS and HGRAF has accelerated the timeline :) IREN not so much lol and uranium will shortly (I can dream right?)

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Shades of Enron

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He obviously has no idea what happenned at Enron if he is correlating a public announcement of $500 billion of 3rd party money with Enron's Jedi and the like.

As i said in the other thread, Burry has called 27 of the last 2 bubbles ... more crying wolf does not move the needle.

At the end of the day, regardless of the LLM provider (or open source) we are massively short compute and the game has just begun. The real usage rate of GPUs (well beyond 5 years nevermind beow it) and ST auction rates of MWs clearly demonstrate it with physical dollars being spent.

If you believe we are going to truncate compute growth and just stop and watch China run away - all the power to you - but I do not believe that will happen. I do not think the massive earnings growth across the market is independent of AI - it is not a coincidence.

Not a single factor to me suggests bubble in the classic sense of it. Yes there will be misallocated capital but there is currently more real demand then supply - that is not the sign of a bubble.

The circular financing argument is way stretched also - if Nvidia directly lent credit to a customer like hundreds of companies do, would we say circular financing? But somehow not providing the financing, getting 500 billion of third party capital injected is. I do not understand it.

yeah, don't get me wrong. There will always be your hurdles but the negative EPS dissipates pretty quickly if we buy the 9 billion AR by the end of the year plan compared to three right now that's a triple on the top line. Well, not even talking about 27.

And in regards to revenue outpacing capex and overhead - at 20-25 per MW and the incredible lifespan we're seen with current chips is the e game changer in that regard.


The shorts argue aggressively chip should be depreciated over three years as that's so useful life - reality is showing a very very different picture which massively changes the economics in ROI. The payback time gets ridiculously short of these metrics.


Never mind, the brilliant Nvidia play to backstop debt effectively guaranteeing that extended useful life to keep the flywheel running. The only true fly in the ointment would be a decrease or taper in demand - and we truly aren't even through the first end of that.


The last 72 hours could not be more bullish. shite happens so maybe something will jump up and bite us but man the thesis has been triple downes in my mind

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This is the definiton of a short squeeze. Plus, what bear case is left? Coreweave is stretching GPUs out to nine years now. Nebius is selling short term contracts at auctions for 3-4x pricing. I think we'll be making new all time highs soon. igoringa: Please correct me where I'm wrong. I haven't had any time to look into much today.

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I have been traveling today too, so I haven't had a huge amount of time to look into this - but yes, I think you hit the nail on the head. Those two facts decimate, any realistic bear case. I am the first to try to be glass half empty out of conservatism. Sure there may be delays here and delays there and public pressure on the industry, but that's gonna only make available capacity that much more scarce.


Coreweave's nine year A100 scenario is so significant - I mean, it cannot be overstated. And NBIS 20 mill average in conjunction with $40-$50 million short-term auction corroborating spacex's known transactions - there is no reasonable argument left.


Burry and the shorts will likely try to keep pointing to circular financing, but at the end of the day there is an end customer paying these prices and that customer is not getting funded by Nvidia. To the extent there is a circular nature, it is in the ultimate production of the final deliverable and not financing of the end customer - that is a pretty big fricking difference as it validates the end demand is true.


Nebius and Coreweave did the entire industry, a solid, and we are reaping the reward

"we see price opportunities in the 40-50 million per megawatt range"

Sweet merciful god

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I bought two $220 Septembers Blow the top off kind of quarter is my guess.

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you are braver than I am - I've added some calls over this downturn but out to January 27.

This earnings release is going to be incredibly dynamic. Vineland is going to be a short-term drag the more I look at it. It's impossible for them to meet their current timeline. I hope I'm wrong but it's impossible.


But they have so much else going on and so much potential news they could drop about literally 12 countries if they wanted to never mind just standard increases never mind the independence Missouri rumors.


I think they'll be massive movement in the stock. I just don't know what direction I'm confident mid to long-term multiples above where it is but next week I'm nervous.