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re: Reminder Mark Halperin will have Selzer in at noon to discuss her Iowa poll
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:30 pm to SlidellCajun
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:30 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Trump might actually be in trouble in Iowa
0
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:33 pm to Proximo
yep that is a fair summation. from the little bit I heard.
add in Halperin schooled people to not post attacks to her that is not good spirited.
I think only the left attack personally so she knows she is good.
add in Halperin schooled people to not post attacks to her that is not good spirited.
I think only the left attack personally so she knows she is good.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:35 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
Which really says, I made a shitty poll to help Kamala and the news cycle, but I’m not going to apologize and I will remain credible no matter how much I sold out.
But thats the thing. She wont.
I agree with Rasmussen in that this election reminds me a LOT of 1980, and that its going to be a political earthquake realignment election. And i think a huge consequence of this will be the realization across the board that everyone now knows the media are gaslighting liars and bullshite artists, and worse, THEY realize that their power is gone. Brian whatshisface at CNN has said that media leaders have told him this is exactly what they’re afraid of, that if Trump wins, its s huge flashing red sign that the emperor has no clothes, and everyone knows it. Everyone will see that no one believes them. They're finished. And theyll die out. That’s GLORIOUS.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:36 pm to boogiewoogie1978
Iowa is not going blue.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:37 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Are you afraid of any independent thought
That's not independent thought. Logical Independent thinking requires you to look at her crosstabs and question why she has a sample size that no way represents Iowa's electorate based off early vote data and a 130,000 increase in Republican Registrations. Your thought process is I have to believe what she is telling me. That is Zombie Brain thinking, not independent thought
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:38 pm to cajunangelle
She didn’t have an answer for her own crosstabs nor about the R voter increase in every single county in her state. Wild stuff.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:41 pm to texn
Sadly no. They will keep trotting her out as "the gold standard of polling"
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:42 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Iowa is not going blue.
I don't think anyone's expecting it to go blue. Would you say Trump will win big like the Emerson poll claims? Or will that 6 week abortion law tighten things up?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:44 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
She didn’t have an answer for her own crosstabs nor about the R voter increase in every single county in her state. Wild stuff.
What she said about this is that her employer (The Demoines Register) doesn't allow the publication of the crosstabs and that this goes back to 1980.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:47 pm to RLDSC FAN
I'd say abortion is an issue. The abortion issue seems to be more focused and concentrated on the Governor rather than Trump.
There is no real polling in Iowa becuase convention wisdom is Trump wins. Trump and Vance have been here, but not much. I don't remember the last time Kamela was here. I don't play close attention though, so could be incorrect about the visits. I do pay close attention to Iowa though, and have access to internal polling on a regular basis.
There is no real polling in Iowa becuase convention wisdom is Trump wins. Trump and Vance have been here, but not much. I don't remember the last time Kamela was here. I don't play close attention though, so could be incorrect about the visits. I do pay close attention to Iowa though, and have access to internal polling on a regular basis.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:48 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Are you afraid of any independent thought?
Be honest
I am not.
I know that "senior women" are not enough to turn Iowa from a state where the Governor and both Senators are Republicans, and the entire House delegation is Republican, and where Republicans won 6 of 7 statewide races in 2022, and that Trump won by over 8 points in 2020 into a state that Harris leads by 4 on the eve of the 2024 election.
So unless she has some other reason for such a drastic change it is clear she is full of shite.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:51 pm to Pandy Fackler
quote:
What she said about this is that her employer (The Demoines Register) doesn't allow the publication of the crosstabs and that this goes back to 1980.
Obviously, that’s what I meant. Polling data without crosstabs available for her to answer to? Once again, wild stuff.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:53 pm to lsufan1971
I'm glad you posted this interview. I listened to it from beginning to end, and if folks go into it and just listen to the discussion and her explanation of things without being nutzo about it, then it's pretty interesting.
She says she used the same methodology she always uses and she stands by the results. Maybe she's wrong, we'll see. But to assume she's been bought off or paid by anyone other than The Demoines Register is just frickin' crazy but alas, this is the Tigerdroppings poli-board.
She says she used the same methodology she always uses and she stands by the results. Maybe she's wrong, we'll see. But to assume she's been bought off or paid by anyone other than The Demoines Register is just frickin' crazy but alas, this is the Tigerdroppings poli-board.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:54 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'd say abortion is an issue.
You may be onto something....
Google AI Overview....
Iowa's abortion law is considered one of the most restrictive in the country. It was passed by the Republican-majority Iowa Legislature in 2023 and went into effect in July 2024. The law was blocked by a legal challenge until earlier this year, when the Iowa Supreme Court ordered an injunction to be lifted.
A poll found that most Iowans oppose the new law, including 91% of Democrats, 88% of suburban women, and 78% of those who identify with no religious group.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:57 pm to Pandy Fackler
If she is right then either all other polls are wrong or Iowa does something no other state have ever done, flip 12 points from last election while not seeing anything remotely close to such a flip in any other state.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:57 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
do pay close attention to Iowa though, and have access to internal polling on a regular basis.
How many points would you say he wins by?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:59 pm to cypher
quote:
You may be onto something....
Google AI Overview....
Iowa's abortion law is considered one of the most restrictive in the country. It was passed by the Republican-majority Iowa Legislature in 2023 and went into effect in July 2024. The law was blocked by a legal challenge until earlier this year, when the Iowa Supreme Court ordered an injunction to be lifted.
A poll found that most Iowans oppose the new law, including 91% of Democrats, 88% of suburban women, and 78% of those who identify with no religious group.
This issue is so much bigger than The Right fully appreciates. Also, one of the women callers made an interesting point when she basically said that senior women on the younger age scale are alot different socially and politically than senior women who are older.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:59 pm to Iowa Golfer
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 2:00 pm to Pandy Fackler
Trump has nothing to do with abortion
EV swing shows republicans 12% better than 2020
EV swing shows republicans 12% better than 2020
Posted on 11/3/24 at 2:05 pm to Pandy Fackler
quote:
said that senior women on the younger age scale are alot different socially and politically than senior women who are older.
The younger women was pointing out Trump leading with 30-59 age group with women. She also said she never hears women in her group concerned about abortion only the media
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