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re: Reminder Mark Halperin will have Selzer in at noon to discuss her Iowa poll

Posted on 11/3/24 at 4:42 pm to
Posted by TDTOM
Member since Jan 2021
25893 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

Trump is going to win


Do you mean Iowa or the Presidency?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10613 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 4:48 pm to
I suspect both. And it's not, or shouldn't be close.

She almost needs to run the table. He doesn't.
Posted by TDTOM
Member since Jan 2021
25893 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 4:51 pm to
From your lips to God’s ears.
Posted by Jbird
Shoot the tires out!
Member since Oct 2012
90756 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:00 pm to
I am northwest Iowa. Only place I see her doing well is Iowa City Ames and the southeast part of the state. Counciltucky will be as deep red as Sioux county
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16412 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:36 pm to
quote:

She knows more about polling Iowa than literally anyone else?


She’s respected by just about everyone in the business

No one on this board knows any better than she does.
She could be right here
Posted by SportTiger1
Stonewall, LA
Member since Feb 2007
29860 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:41 pm to
quote:

No one on this board knows any better than she does.
horseshite.

I know that you can't poll 800 people that don't come close to matching the electorate and be right.

Statistics 101

67% of her sample says they were never trumpers. Does that line up with Trump's 55% support 4 years ago? Did 1M California liberals move to Iowa when I wasn't looking ?

Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10613 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:47 pm to
Has to be NW Iowa metro. NW Iowa is further social issues right than most churches.

What Trump did in 2016 was look at the Iowa metro areas and try to better 2012 by 10 basis points. I forget exactly where it ended up, but I delivered Linn County. Someone else was chair and took credit for it, but I essentially delivered Cedar Rapids in the numbers it needed to be at in order to guaranty the state's victory.

When it gets don to precincts it is purely a mathematical formula.

Now all this said, I have some history in gambling, and some outside influence on unions, so what I do isn't exactly for everyone, and it's pretty non-conventional. As I posted earlier, the Republican establishment is a bit uncomfortable with me, and the reasons aren't 100% political.

I don't care. Never indicted, never convicted. Forfeiture? Another topic. I've gone legit. But I associate socially with some gentlemen that are New York centric (Trump knows this), and they have reputations.

All this posted, one of the qualities I have that is good, and also bad, is I don't give a frick what anyone thinks of me, and largely I don't have to.

I'm not a fan of intellectual liberals, or intellectual conservatives for that matter. I'm not a fan of social issue conservatives. I'm a fan of winning, and doing whatever it takes (without putting myself at risk) to win.

Politics is a blood sport to me. I love it dirty.

Roger Stone is my favorite of all the Trump people. We don't do anything political together, but when I'm in Florida he hangs out at a cigar lounge I go to, and we smoke and bullshite. really smart (and sneaky) guy in a good way.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 5:53 pm
Posted by DiamondDog
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2019
13244 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:49 pm to
You sound like a crazy person.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10613 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:53 pm to
There is a very fine line between sanity and insanity. I'm certainly on the edge.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134933 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:02 pm to
quote:

the Republican establishment is a bit uncomfortable with me, and the reasons aren't 100% political.

I don't care. Never indicted, never convicted. Forfeiture? Another topic. I've gone legit.
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