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re: If Dems “found” ballots in ‘20 in order to win then Biden would have outperformed polls
Posted on 6/28/23 at 10:59 pm to Jon Ham
Posted on 6/28/23 at 10:59 pm to Jon Ham
If Biden had the votes to win, why throw the poll watchers out, board the windows, and do it at 4AM while the Country slept?
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 3:36 pm
0
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:01 pm to Jon Ham
There would be no need to manufacture votes if he was winning as much as the polls predicted. You drop illegitimate ballots when you're losing.
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:01 pm to Jon Ham
Polls don't equal votes. The whole premise of the hypothesis is false.
To quote Philip Bump at The Washington Post...
“How plausible is it, really, that Joe Biden got 10 million more votes than Barack Obama? That Trump became the first incumbent since the 19th century to gain votes (8.4 million) and still lose his reelection bid? The first to win all the bellwether states and 18 of 19 bellwether counties and still lose? The first to gain House seats (14) and still lose? The first to see his primary vote exceed 75 percent (he got 94 percent) and still lose?”
To quote Philip Bump at The Washington Post...
“How plausible is it, really, that Joe Biden got 10 million more votes than Barack Obama? That Trump became the first incumbent since the 19th century to gain votes (8.4 million) and still lose his reelection bid? The first to win all the bellwether states and 18 of 19 bellwether counties and still lose? The first to gain House seats (14) and still lose? The first to see his primary vote exceed 75 percent (he got 94 percent) and still lose?”
This post was edited on 6/28/23 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:04 pm to GRTiger
quote:
There would be no need to manufacture votes if he was winning as much as the polls predicted. You drop illegitimate ballots when you're losing.
Good point. Polls showed him winning, but like 2016 the polls underestimated Trump’s support. Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 at almost the same level as he did in 2016, but that wasn’t enough to catch Biden.
Polls showed Biden ahead and Biden won.
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:04 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
If Dems created votes that they didn’t actually earn, then the polls would obviously have not “captured” those fraudulent votes, and therefore Biden would be outperforming the polling.
Ugh. Doubling down on stupid
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:11 pm to bamabonners
quote:
“How plausible is it, really, that Joe Biden got 10 million more votes than Barack Obama? That Trump became the first incumbent since the 19th century to gain votes (8.4 million) and still lose his reelection bid? The first to win all the bellwether states and 18 of 19 bellwether counties and still lose? The first to gain House seats (14) and still lose? The first to see his primary vote exceed 75 percent (he got 94 percent) and still lose?”
Trump barely beat Hillary and needed the assistance of Comey and Jill Stein to do that. Throw in covid, an opponent that’s not Hillary, social media censoring bad news for the opponent, and boom Joe’s your president without much need for faking ballots. It’s entirely conceivable.
Also throw in Trump looking like an absolute fool in the first debate. That probably cost him the election.
This post was edited on 6/28/23 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:15 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Good point. Polls showed him winning, but like 2016 the polls underestimated Trump’s support. Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 at almost the same level as he did in 2016, but that wasn’t enough to catch Biden.
Polls showed Biden ahead and Biden won.
You're supposing that fraud wasn't present from results that could have come from fraud. Your hypothesis is illogical. I could hypothesize that undperforming in swing states and in some cases just barely winning is a sign of fraud.
You cheat to win, not beat the spread.
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:17 pm to Jon Ham
I disagree with you mate - they strategically flipped in just a few key cities. Juuuust enough to flip the election. Such a small number that it didn't really swing the overall numbers.
Election was DEFINITELTY stolen in a variety of ways. It is so obvious that I'm kind of surprised you don't see it.
Ron is still a smarter choice than Don for 2024 imo. But I might be wrong. If Trump somehow won I'd cry tears of joy.
Election was DEFINITELTY stolen in a variety of ways. It is so obvious that I'm kind of surprised you don't see it.
Ron is still a smarter choice than Don for 2024 imo. But I might be wrong. If Trump somehow won I'd cry tears of joy.
This post was edited on 6/28/23 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:28 pm to Jon Ham
Shut the frick up. Biden stole the 2020 election. stop pretending otherwise 
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:40 pm to Jon Ham
This tortured bullshite is how you know the house of cards is starting to collapse.
Posted on 6/28/23 at 11:45 pm to GRTiger
Who says Hillary and her cronies didn't use fraud back in 2016?
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:42 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Conclusion: The data shows Biden did not outperform the polling in any of the swing states.
Because the polling was flawed.
Why Were The Polls Off?
"Yes, Joe Biden ended up winning, as forecasters predicted. But polls overestimated his support in multiple swing states"
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/19/936317341/why-were-the-polls-off-pollsters-have-some-early-theories
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
"Most national polls accurately estimated that President Joe Biden would get more votes than President Donald Trump nationally, but Biden’s certified margin of victory fell short of the average margin in the polls at both the national and state levels. Polling overstated support for Biden relative to Trump, and Biden’s 306-232 victory in the Electoral College was narrower than predicted by many election forecasters."
https://aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx
How pollsters are trying to fix election polls after 2020
Washington CNN —
"Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades"
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/19/politics/polling-error-2020-report/index.html
Posted on 6/29/23 at 3:27 am to Turbeauxdog
I dont like to admit this - but your hypothesis makes sense - not in an absolute manner, but it should not be dismissed without analysis.
The "polls" are admittedly wrong - and wrong for a lot of unknown reasons.
BUT - they are - hypothetically - independent of the actual mechanism going on behind the scenes in the 'fraud' scenario ----- or ARE they>> that takes the 'conspiracy' to another level and at some point, the piling on of conspiracy coordinations leads to nothing but mush.
But - I am going to think about this with a clearer head - I admit I had not noticed that relationship before
so
for a genuinely thoughtful input
OR
for another conspiracy level (just kidding - that was to placate the unohus.)
carry on - well done
The "polls" are admittedly wrong - and wrong for a lot of unknown reasons.
BUT - they are - hypothetically - independent of the actual mechanism going on behind the scenes in the 'fraud' scenario ----- or ARE they>> that takes the 'conspiracy' to another level and at some point, the piling on of conspiracy coordinations leads to nothing but mush.
But - I am going to think about this with a clearer head - I admit I had not noticed that relationship before
so
for a genuinely thoughtful input OR
for another conspiracy level (just kidding - that was to placate the unohus.) carry on - well done
Posted on 6/29/23 at 3:36 am to Jon Ham
quote:
If Biden won swing states in 2020 due to the Democrats “finding the votes necessary” in the middle of election night to flip the outcome
Motherfricker I watched this happen with my own two eyes. As did the rest of the world.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:03 am to Jon Ham
quote:Houston, we have a problem.
the polls
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:20 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 at almost the same level as he did in 2016, but that wasn’t enough to catch Biden.
You keep saying almost the same level. If Trump had outperformed the polls at the exact same level, would he have won?
I'd also be curious to see poll vs actual in non-swing states, both blue and red.
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:24 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Hypothesis: If Biden won swing states in 2020 due to the Democrats “finding the votes necessary” in the middle of election night to flip the outcome, then the actual election results would show Biden outperformed the polling leading up to the election.
quote:
Conclusion: The data shows Biden did not outperform the polling in any of the swing states.
A valid conclusion to a potentially flawed hypothesis. It is possible that the original polls were so flawed that the number of votes (allegedly) found wasn't enough to push Biden's total beyond the poll estimates. Your numbers suggest the 2020 polls were less accurate than the 2016 polls. They may have been even more inaccurate if (alleged) vote finding did not occur
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 4:40 am
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:38 am to TittleMeThis
Why wouldn’t they be?
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:41 am to Richleau
I think it is very possible
Posted on 6/29/23 at 4:48 am to Jon Ham
There is just one thing to remember about polls, they are just that, polls. It is an ESTIMATE and a GUESS who is going to show up on Election Day. A candidate could be leading in one poll in one demographic and area but if something happens like bad weather on Election Day or long lines at the polling area and hampers that group from voting. It will show up in the results. That is why every pollster includes a margin of error. It is so they can claim they were still right even though they blew it on the sample size demographics or they knew it was going to be a nut cutter to cover their arse.
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