re: Harris now the comfortable betting favorite on all sites; wtf is going on?

Very well stated

Follow the money...

The Big Short

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Makes zero sense

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Makes mathematical sense. From your bubble you can't see it.

It easy to see why he appeals to his base, but that's likely a third of the country. Dems have a third. And then there is this other third up for grabs who may or may not show up on Election Day.

The #1 swing vote is suburban women. They are most likely to change. Dems offered up a candidate they like and Republicans offered JD Vance. Republicans were already losing this and they made it worse this month.

The next block was getting the black nonvoter to show up on Election Day. Dems offered up a black candidate who wasn't necessarily loved by the black community. However, Trump questioning her black identity seems to have circled the wagons. Once Beyoncé and Obamas dance on stage with her at the DNC you can expect black registration and turnout to be near Obama levels. And you can also count on Trump to say something racist during the debates and to make it a bigger deal by saying for weeks it's not racist.

Youth vote. This one is always hard to read. Young people are unreliable at the polls. They may say they are going, but something else comes up. This is the swing demographic Trump seems to have targeted. You see him out with his younger son more. He did the Adin Ross thing. Then the glichy X thing last night. Trying to appeal to young urban voters. Problem is, he comes off as very old. Not Biden frail old man, but an old rambling boomer. And Trump may be great with a crowd or in a debate, but in a podcast, where what you say matters, it's noticeable that Trump rambles and it's boring.

Other fringe demographics would be Latinos who Trump polled well with in the past because of the machismo stuff and abortion; perhaps up in the air this time. And union workers who listened to Trump and Elon last night, two wealthy men argue who was the better downsizer - while laughing.


All Kamala has to do is smile and waive and read teleprompters.

Why are you voting for Kamala? Be specific.

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I still think he’s waiting until she and Tampon Timmy are locked in at the convention. He already spent valuable ammo (possibly prematurely) on proving what a horrible candidate JoeTato is, I think he wants to make 100% sure who he will be running against. Plenty of time to show the voters what an idiot his opponents are, better to let them think she’s going to win so they don’t put Big Mike in her place.

She's locked in. There is no time to waste showing how empty she is.

A lot of folks will do anything to have a reason to vote against Trump.

Biden's age was a bridge too far for a lot of people.

Now, they are being force-fed Kamala 24/7, and it works. People are incredibly stupid. I was with a group of people this weekend, and a few women in the group were praising her because "she seems fun."