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Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:32 pm
quote:
Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
"We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.
I like it when there expectations are low.
LINK
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Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:36 pm to Northwestern tiger
I've had a commercial developer tell me this a few months ago. Apparently, much of the commercial construction/real estate industry knows this is coming
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:38 pm to Northwestern tiger
That may very well be the case. Its not like the Trump economic agenda will be advanced in any way shape or fasion with a dem controlled House.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:40 pm to Northwestern tiger
Not surprising.
Slowdowns periodically are natural.
Slowdowns periodically are natural.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:43 pm to Northwestern tiger
I’m not surprised considering the Democrats are already talking about more regulations
I also predict their will be more focus on the economy by the liberal msm, compared to the success of the last 2 years, in an effort to talk the economy down to help Democrats win in 2020
I also predict their will be more focus on the economy by the liberal msm, compared to the success of the last 2 years, in an effort to talk the economy down to help Democrats win in 2020
This post was edited on 11/19/18 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:45 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I've had a commercial developer tell me this a few months ago. Apparently, much of the commercial construction/real estate industry knows this is coming
I'll take "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies" for $500, Alex.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:47 pm to Northwestern tiger
Chase was predicting the beginnings of a recession in late 2020 but the success we've seen from the regulatory and tax cuts caused them to push that back to 2021.
My worry now is that with the Dems set to take over the House at the beginning of the year they will skewer any trade deals he might have been able to create with these trade wars. At the least I would like to see the USMCA signed before the Dems take office (but that's probably a pipe dream since speculation about a signing at G20 have died off significantly since the beginning of October).
My worry now is that with the Dems set to take over the House at the beginning of the year they will skewer any trade deals he might have been able to create with these trade wars. At the least I would like to see the USMCA signed before the Dems take office (but that's probably a pipe dream since speculation about a signing at G20 have died off significantly since the beginning of October).
Posted on 11/19/18 at 12:51 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.
that framing seems quite pessimistic
i wouldn't quite call an annual figure of ~2% a "crawl", either. but a few quarters at 1.6 or worse, maybe
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:06 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
This used to be the standard of excellence when Obama was president.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:08 pm to Northwestern tiger
I was told the stock market would crash after Trump was elected.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:08 pm to Northwestern tiger
Sounds reasonable. So much of the last few quarters has been tax cuts and stimulus. I've referred to that a "juicing" the economy to create government driven growth, and apparently Goldman agrees. Once the cash infusion works its way through the system, things go back down.
Also, we have (at least from what I've seen) a fundamentally strong economy right now. So that supports the no-recession projection.
Tariffs and restrictions on global trade have and will continue to have a negative effect. I can't imagine that America's present disdain for the rest of the world helps things, but it is difficult for a non-expert to quantify the negative effect. Without a doubt we could be in an even better position absent Trump's anti-trade policies.
Also, we have (at least from what I've seen) a fundamentally strong economy right now. So that supports the no-recession projection.
Tariffs and restrictions on global trade have and will continue to have a negative effect. I can't imagine that America's present disdain for the rest of the world helps things, but it is difficult for a non-expert to quantify the negative effect. Without a doubt we could be in an even better position absent Trump's anti-trade policies.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:12 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
like it when there
Where?
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:12 pm to Northwestern tiger
Dem priorities are:
1a. Muh Russia
1b. Tanking the economy
1a. Muh Russia
1b. Tanking the economy
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:18 pm to Northwestern tiger
Global Currency Reset.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:20 pm to Northwestern tiger
This is nothing. If stocks crash Trump will blame it on Congress and his Trumpkins will nod excitedly.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:24 pm to TBoy
quote:
So much of the last few quarters has been tax cuts and stimulus.
So much? 
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:28 pm to Northwestern tiger
A Dem congress tends to have that effect, but the President ends up with the blame if he is Republican.
Posted on 11/19/18 at 1:34 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Goldman Sachs downgrades Microsoft’s stock, says they will ‘gradually deteriorate’ if they don’t change
RON EMAIL @RONWINBETA APR 12TH, 2013 IN LATEST NEWS
Microsoft just cant catch a break these days. But negative or positive press is a result of being the software giant. According to a new report, Goldman Sachs has downgraded Microsoft’s market share from “hold” to “sell.”
Heather Bellini, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, is recommending that investors sell their Microsoft stock and downgraded the software giant’s stock from neutral (hold) to a negative rating (sell). Bellini believes Microsoft will gradually deteriorate if they don’t change their direction right away.
quote:
Goldman Sachs on Microsoft: Sell now
JULIE BORT APR 1, 2015, 11.29 PM
Microsoft's stock is trading at about $40, coming slightly back down earth since November, when it reached a 14-year high of about $50.
And it's time to sell, warns Goldman Sachs in a scathing research note on Tuesday.
The Goldman Sachs team, led by analyst Heather Bellini, believe the stock will drop to $38 within the next 12 months.
quote:
Goldman Sachs on Microsoft: 'We Were Wrong'
By Luke Kawa
18 December 2015, 19:33 GMT+5:30
Goldman Sachs is throwing in the towel on its bearish stance on Microsoft, upgrading its shares to "neutral "and boosting its 12-month price target to $57 from $45 on Friday.
The technology company has vastly outperformed the S&P 500 since analysts downgraded it to "sell" in April 2013:
In a note to clients entitled "Righting a Wrong," analysts led by Heather Bellini explain what they missed.
quote:
"We upgrade Microsoft to Neutral from Sell. Since its addition to the Sell list on 4/11/2013, Microsoft is +84 percent vs. the S&P +29 percent. Despite out year estimates consistently compressing, we failed to appreciate that the stock would disconnect from downward EPS revisions, and the significant upward re-rating of the multiple driven by Microsoft’s transition to the cloud (Office 365 and Azure). We were wrong. On average, out year consensus EPS [earnings-per-share] estimates have declined 11 percent in fiscal-year 2015 and 13 percent in fiscal-year 2016 from one year before the beginning of the fiscal-year, yet during that time Microsoft’s NTM P/E [next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio] multiple has increased from 10x to 20x."
quote:
Microsoft from 2013 to 2018 :-
Posted on 11/19/18 at 2:51 pm to teke184
quote:
A Dem congress
Did i miss something? Dems dont control congress
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