Bard

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Australian female cop breaks push-up record

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Gold Coast Senior Constable Jade Henderson broke the record for the most amount of pull-ups within one hour.

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Do you even gym, bro? :casty:

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People who use the R word casually is lame

And I don’t mean in the sense of the medical term. It’s like the lowest form of comedy and they have nothing interesting to say.

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I would rather see it all go to lowering the debt rather than raising inflation. :casty:

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Will they conscript foreign migrants or just German born citizens?

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The migrants would be more likely to kill, but do you really want them armed?

I check the traffic map every day before leaving the office. Looked at it about 15 minutes ago and there are 3 fricking accidents on 10/12 between the river and Denham (4 if you count 110). :banghead:

Looks like I'll be on Florida today.

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Yeah that’s like 10% of the world population. On one hand it’s not terribly difficult to imagine how the entire world spazzing out for 15 minutes or whatever might result in a lot of deaths. On the other hand.. 10% of the population?

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There may be more to the story, but right now I'm chalking up the non-accident deaths (plane accident, falling, etc) on pre-existing health issues (triggered aneurysm, heart attack, etc).

I thought my sister and her husband were crazy for home-schooling their kids in the 00s. They both went to a private school when the older son was in high school and the younger in junior high. Both were straight-A students, the younger one used to get frustrated because his classmates couldn't seem to understand that getting classwork done during free time THEN fricking off was a lot better than fricking off first then trying to gear back up to get things done (read: poor time-management skills because that isn't taught in most schools).

Both kids have blown through college and proven me wrong about their choice to home school.

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You picked one item on a list and found fault with that - as opposed to loking at all the costs / benefits.

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I picked it because I didn't have time to go through the whole thing (only now getting the time to do that much writing/researching) and it was to point out that the 50yr is very likely to create more of the very thing it's being touted as addressing (thus being germane to the overall topic).

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but just writing it off bc some of you Baws were able to pay off your 15 yr morgages early - is not a solution.

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We bought in 2014, we may not see rates go low enough to make refi'ing to a 15yr affordable before we pay it off. :lol:

To set the stage for my counter stance, I'm going to sum it up from some of my other posts first before getting to your points.

The average age of a first-time home buyer is 38.
The lower the loan time period, the higher the note.
The crossover point for a 50yr mortgage would be 40 years.
The average retirement age in the US is 62.
The average for income drop upon retirement is 31%.

40%-50% of 30yrs get paid off. 80%-85% of 15yrs get paid off. Extrapolating that to a 50yr mortgage would likely be something like 15% of 50yrs ever being paid off (and I think that would be on the high side).

For a 50yr loan, you're only accruing around 5% equity after 10 years. For comparison, with a 30yr mortgage you have ~22% equity in 10 years.

The average annual difference between the 30yr mortgage rate and the 15yr mortgage rate over the last 30 years is .58%. We'll go ahead and assume it would be similar from the 30yr to a 50yr (since we really have nothing else to go on), meaning that the current rate for a 50yr would likely be 6.89% (current average 30yr is ~6.31% and 15yr is ~5.7%).

A 50yr mortgage at 6.89% for a $200k home would be a total price of $711,939.14. That's $511,939.14 in interest for a home the initial buyers will likely never realize full ownership (meaning that, at best, these are generational loans). For comparison, a 30yr mortgage on a $200k home at 6.31% would be $446,129.85 with total interest being $246,129.85.

With all of that said, a 50yr mortgage doesn't feed supply, it creates only more demand with the hope being the demand increase causes supply to increase. Supply is what needs to be addressed and there are avenues for that, depending on locality (reforming zoning and/or land use rules, streamlining permitting processes, updating building codes for flexibility, grants and/or low-interest loans for encouraging adaptive reuse of buildings, etc.).

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1- It’s a far more workable solution than rent control

2-it’s a hedge against increasing rent, which is the biggest problem facing young people

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It's a placebo. The calls for rent control come from the prices of rents going up so much. Rents are going up due to increasing demand due to housing price increases rising so much. Instituting a 50yr mortgage will create more demand for housing (and thus then for rentals).

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3-it’s an appreciating asset so the equity in it will naturally also increase even if they’re making minimum payments

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From our $200k home example, after 10 years they would have ~$6k equity in the home (not including appreciation). If we look at the CAGR (nominal, compound annual growth rate) for the last 30 years (4.64%) and add that in, the accrued equity comes out to ~$15k (or ~7.5% of the home's original price, or ~2% of the total mortgage price). At the risk of repeating myself, that amount of equity for that long a period is a placebo.

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4-nothing prevents anyone from paying early

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Agreed, but unless it's a few decades early, paying a little extra each month is going to have no noticeable effect for a very long time.

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5-increases stability in communities

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Possibly, but if so it won't be the positive you think it will be. Going back to our $200k home example, if a family buys such a home they aren't going to be able to sell it without being underwater on their next purchase for a couple of decades due to the low equity accrual rate. That means they either don't move because they can't afford it (which can also mean a lack of upward mobility) or they just declare bankruptcy and go back to renting. At this point the price will depend on what the bank will take for it.

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6-it creates a heritable asset

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Agreed. And the mortgage will also be heritable. Hopefully a descendant is doing well enough to finally pay it off.

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7-I’d much rather see someone finance a house for fifty years than rent a house till they’re fifty.

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I don't disagree, but I think this doesn't fix that issue but allows for the illusion that it does.

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8-it’s feasible if there were age limits, and down payment requirements for qualifying

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Agreed, but then it's not working for those outside the age limits and/or down payment requirements, which I believe would be a majority of those who are having the most problems affording homes now.

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10-nothing prevents anyone from purchasing 15/20/30 yr mortgages

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Agreed and I'm not so much saying it shouldn't be tried as I am saying it's not going to fix affordability, but rather exacerbate it.

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It just takes the tongue in cheek literally.

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Cheek-tonguing is also a hidden benefit of Platinum Membership, but only at the St George Membership Fulfillment Center.

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Eminent domain overrides your title.
Under the Fifth Amendment’s Takings Clause, any government can condemn your land for “public use” (now broadly interpreted to include private development, Kelo v. City of New London, 2005) and force a sale at “fair market value.” Your consent is irrelevant; the state holds the superior claim.

Regulatory takings and zoning erode use.
Environmental regulations, historic-preservation rules, or zoning changes can prohibit rebuilding, renting, or modifying your own land—sometimes rendering it worthless—yet courts often deny compensation (Penn Central test). You “own” the dirt but not the right to use it.

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Just wait til you read this. You can't hate the climate crazies enough.