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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:12 am to CleverUserName
quote:
I would “allege” that this firm has been wrong about pretty much every prediction of a Trump economy
well let's see some examples of all these egregiously bad projections, and relative to some good ones. this allegation ought to be pretty easy to substantiate.
quote:
they are and have been sketchy at every turn
goldman sachs is a big beast. how has their unit that forecasts us gdp been "sketchy"?
quote:
unless the house begins a full fledged “resist” movement and basically drag down the economy
let's lay down some benchmarks, since everyone is making this excuse all the time now. what would gdp have been if the republicans had kept the house? what exactly is the house gonna do to slow down gdp growth- force trump to reinstate obama's Clean Power Plan or something? make him revisit his nafta 1.1 change that slightly tightens rules-of-origin requirements for automaking?
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 8:14 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:49 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
well let's see some examples of all these egregiously bad projections,
Well just that little fact that they would have either ceased to exist or been seriously hobbled without taxpayer funded bailouts due to their underwriting of loans and mortgages by people with crap credit. And then misleading investors while doing it.
Trump will be terrible for stocks in 2017
quote:
Goldman Sachs Says Donald Trump Will Be Terrible for Stocks in 2017
Only a minor boost from tax cuts
quote:
Goldman Sachs predicts only minor boost from Trump’s tax cuts
Tax cuts no big boost for economy
quote:
Goldman Sachs doesn't think the Republican tax bill would be a big boost to the US economy
Tax cuts could cause recession
Trumps policy’s will cause higher unemployment, inflation, and a slower economy
quote:
In a note on Monday, Goldman economists Sven Jari Stehn and Alec Phillips argued that Trump’s economic policies could bring about both higher inflation, more unemployment, and a slower economy—largely due to the president-elect’s promise to pair more spending with protectionism, both of which have the potential to significantly increase prices, Bloomberg reported.
And on and on and on and on.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:05 am to TigerBlazer
well if you keep calling for it every year eventually you will get it right and can say "I told you so". lol
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:07 am to CleverUserName
quote:
Trump will be terrible for stocks in 2017
not an economic forecast and not from their macroeconomic forecasting unit
quote:
Only a minor boost from tax cuts
quote:
Tax cuts no big boost for economy
both very much in line with the mainstream, and already appearing to be shown to be correct, if you actually take 5 seconds to look at what they actually said
quote:
argued that Trump’s economic policies could bring about both higher inflation, more unemployment, and a slower economy—largely due to the president-elect’s promise to pair more spending with protectionism
we argue that about excessive government spending all the time! protectionism necessarily does that as well, if it's effective.
but to the point of it being a bad prediction, that is part of a general criticism of trump's general plans from before he was even inaugurated.
so to recap, on the tax cuts, they're right so far, and weren't out on a limb to begin with. on the subject of this thread- their projections of growth in the economy- i'll note you didn't even bring an example of their past projections for comparison. and what they said about the eventual effects of increasing spending + protectionism are correct. you did link something that one of their units said about stocks which was wildly wrong- but sorry, the stock market isn't the economy. and this doesn't support your sweeping allegations about their projections for "the trump economy"
really, you just don't like the gdp numbers they project. like i said, they strike me as a tad too pessimistic too
ETA: i just realized, one of those articles you linked did show that they had a pretty decent projection for 2017 RGDP growth of 2.1%. Turned out to be 2.2%
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 9:13 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:08 am to TBoy
You want to talk about juicing after the Osiah had 8 years of almost 0% interest.
Even mentioning juicing, proves you are a 100% total hack.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:13 am to upgrayedd
quote:
I've had a commercial developer tell me this a few months ago. Apparently, much of the commercial construction/real estate industry knows this is coming
Ive heard the same verbiage but with a tone of..."because it always does"
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:16 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
economic agenda will be advanced in any way shape or fasion with a dem controlled House.
infrastructure work saves the day.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:23 am to CelticDog
quote:
infrastructure work saves the day.
it could
it seems we're hellbent on not having the feds pay for it though, so it won't happen
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:42 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
what are you suggesting?
I’m suggesting there is a lot of subjective criteria in the analyst’s prediction.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:43 am to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
quote:
But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.
Four quarters of growth and they believe the US will skirt a recession? That's a hot take.
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