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4
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:56 pm to Chromdome35
Rough day with 400 deaths. Hoping we will see that number taper in the coming days.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:57 pm to beezy
we should know more by end of next week
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:58 pm to beezy
You’re not wrong. Growth rate is slowing, or at least stabilizing.
25% every day is still pretty shitty because it compounds like compounding interest but it’s better than the growth rate increasing.
I want to see single digit growth rate.
25% every day is still pretty shitty because it compounds like compounding interest but it’s better than the growth rate increasing.
I want to see single digit growth rate.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:00 pm to Tiguar
Louisiana “state doctor” flat out said they’re not tracking those who were at home quarantined even with a positive.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:21 pm to Tiguar
New York is experiencing it's hot zone and contributing to the sharp increases.
West Coast is avoiding for now thanks in part to early halting of incoming travel from China and early social distancing vs NYC which was promoting social gatherings in early March and later travel ban from Europe are having a an impact. And it is our largest city with ~9 million people with very high population density.
I hate to say it, but we should expect to see steep curves for both cases and deaths for about another week at least, hoping that NY cools off by the and no other spots turn on.
West Coast is avoiding for now thanks in part to early halting of incoming travel from China and early social distancing vs NYC which was promoting social gatherings in early March and later travel ban from Europe are having a an impact. And it is our largest city with ~9 million people with very high population density.
I hate to say it, but we should expect to see steep curves for both cases and deaths for about another week at least, hoping that NY cools off by the and no other spots turn on.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:22 pm to NorCali
quote:
And it is our largest city with ~9 million people with very high population density.
Plus public transit.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:24 pm to NorCali
quote:
hoping that NY cools off by the and no other spots turn on.
I'm thinking New Orleans is the next big driver.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:26 pm to beezy
It won’t be the highest deaths we see
We are a nation of 325 million people.
Deaths will peak at more than 1,000/day
We are a nation of 325 million people.
Deaths will peak at more than 1,000/day
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:26 pm to the808bass
quote:
Plus public transit.
Bingo, and a big Chinese new year street party at the wrong damn time.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:33 pm to beezy
quote:
am I wrong to think that the daily growth is a sign that the curve is flattening? also deaths...jesus, i pray thats the highest we see
Look at the curves for total cases and total deaths. They look like they are getting steeper. When those curves start to flatten, then you know.
this is why tracking daily % can be very misleading day to day. The curves for total is where you see the trends.
I rally hate to say this, but deaths have been doubling about every 2-3 days and lag behind new cases, so as long as new cases continue to rise sharply, the expectation is the deaths will continue to rise, unless one of the medicines actually have a positive effect in the serious cases.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:06 pm to NorCali
I'm starting to get truly concerned, we aren't that far away from some ugly numbers and I don't see anything slowing down at this point.
The math on the growth rate is very straightforward and is perfectly described by the "Give me 1 cent the first day, 2 the next, 4 the third and on the 30th day you'll have to pay me $5.6M" however in the case of this outbreak, instead of doubling in size every day it's doubling every three. In the above example, it would take 90 days to get to the $5.6M
We're up to the point now where the numbers will get ugly fairly quickly if that curve doesn't start to flatten out soon. We are at most 5 days away from 1000 deaths a day. This isn't me being alarmist, it's pure mathematics. We'll be at 100K dead in 17 days if this doesn't slow down. We're going to blow by H1N1 in 10 days.
That doesn't leave us much time to flatten the curve, we better pray that Hydroxychloroqunine/zpack works.
The math on the growth rate is very straightforward and is perfectly described by the "Give me 1 cent the first day, 2 the next, 4 the third and on the 30th day you'll have to pay me $5.6M" however in the case of this outbreak, instead of doubling in size every day it's doubling every three. In the above example, it would take 90 days to get to the $5.6M
We're up to the point now where the numbers will get ugly fairly quickly if that curve doesn't start to flatten out soon. We are at most 5 days away from 1000 deaths a day. This isn't me being alarmist, it's pure mathematics. We'll be at 100K dead in 17 days if this doesn't slow down. We're going to blow by H1N1 in 10 days.
That doesn't leave us much time to flatten the curve, we better pray that Hydroxychloroqunine/zpack works.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:19 pm to Chromdome35
quote:This won’t stay the way, but if it were to continue doubling every 3 days (i.e., 26% per day), it would be 1.074 billion after 90 days.
it's doubling every three. In the above example, it would take 90 days to get to the $5.6M
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:27 pm to NorCali
quote:
so as long as new cases continue to rise sharply,
But they aren't.The rate of increased cases has declined the last 5 days.In others words, while increasing the aren't increasing exponentially.
Deaths should soon follow on the same pattern.
Its what happening in Italy and China (If we can believe them)
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:32 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
and China (If we can believe them)
You can't.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:34 pm to Chromdome35
You can't just extrapolate from here to kingdom come. These numbers will flatten out quickly. Hopefully, within one month.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:35 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I'm starting to get truly concerned, we aren't that far away from some ugly numbers and I don't see anything slowing down at this point.
The math on the growth rate is very straightforward and is perfectly described by the "Give me 1 cent the first day, 2 the next, 4 the third and on the 30th day you'll have to pay me $5.6M" however in the case of this outbreak, instead of doubling in size every day it's doubling every three. In the above example, it would take 90 days to get to the $5.6M
We're up to the point now where the numbers will get ugly fairly quickly if that curve doesn't start to flatten out soon. We are at most 5 days away from 1000 deaths a day. This isn't me being alarmist, it's pure mathematics. We'll be at 100K dead in 17 days if this doesn't slow down. We're going to blow by H1N1 in 10 days.
That doesn't leave us much time to flatten the curve, we better pray that Hydroxychloroqunine/zpack works.
the issue is that nyc has only been on lockdown for less than a week I think.
The numbers will continue to accelerate until April.
There is ZERO REASON to expect the curve to flatten in the next week or so.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:36 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:If it tkaes until april 27th for a flattening, we are looking at half a million deaths.
These numbers will flatten out quickly. Hopefully, within one month.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:51 pm to auggie
quote:When was that?
Bingo, and a big Chinese new year street party at the wrong damn time.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:54 pm to RD Dawg
quote:Yesterday Italy has more deaths than any other day. Their rate of growth in new cases started to decrease (i.e., growing at a lesser rate) nearly 3 weeks ago.
Its what happening in Italy
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