re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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But they aren't.The rate of increased cases has declined the last 5 days.In others words, while increasing the aren't increasing exponentially.

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I look at it a bit differently by focusing on the absolute numbers. on March 22nd new cases were 9k, then 10k, then 11k, then 13k, then 17k, and now 18k today. So it doubled in 5 days. But look at the very first graph of total cases. The slope shows you how steep it is.

But I think I see the point you are trying to make. If you look at the 19th, it took 1 day to double, then on the 20th it took 3 days to double, and from there it took 5 days. So, I get it, the rate of day to day growth may have decelerated, but the absolute number of cases is still growing sharply and that is, unfortunately, the key metric since at this point the trend in deaths (and probably serious cases) is still aligned.

Perhaps a bit of good progress. A rapid test from Abbott was FDA cleared.
LINK

Next big diagnostic step will be a serology test to see who has been exposed and now immune to it. Conventional wisdom is about 50% of a population being exposed for good "herd" immunity.

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At this rate we would be at a million cases by early next week.

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That's good. Would mean the death rate is well below 1% then.

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Why are you so confident deaths would not also increase at a similar rate?

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I mean they clearly are. The charts in this thread only show U.S. deaths but the global deaths are climbing rapidly.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

We've seen some fluctuations in the results on weekends, given how this now has everyone's full attention, I suspect the labs will be staffed up over the weekend now.

Hopefully, this weekend's numbers will be more consistent.

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Growth rate of new cases are continuing to fall. I believe they call that flattening.

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Yes. Looks like the measures are working.

Praying

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But it would also be a truer representation since active case mortality could go either way

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You can assume that pretty much 100% of the cases not considered critical will pull through and get discharged though.