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re: Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:58 pm to
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58271 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:58 pm to
How cool will it get here?
Dear sweet baby Jesus let this happen
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120423 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:00 pm to
Im not holding my breath but....

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42946 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:03 pm to
I wouldn’t bank on the flood of cool air across much of the country that the GFS is showing. It’s been showing cooler temps at the end of the period most of the summer, and it never verifies.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145254 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:09 pm to
i got a wedding that day so it would be nice to have some cold temps so im not dying in a suit
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
134887 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Im not holding my breath but....
Posted by lionward2014
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
11729 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:26 pm to
Oh boy what would I give for that to be accurate.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41538 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:59 pm to
Euro doesn't get it into the Gulf this run kinda meanders off the east coast of Florida.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:09 pm to
I mentioned this yesterday that Canada has snow so it's possible but Euro isn't showing it right now last I looked.

Would love to have some cooler air I'm tired of this summer pattern.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:15 pm to
If it just meanders that cold front will wipe it out before it can even make it to the gulf. Best case scenario.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120423 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:21 pm to
Euro does show a trough/cold front but slower and not as deep
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:22 pm to
If the front makes it through which it probably won't because GFS has sucked this year.

I have seen projections for Louisiana's winter this year and it seems to be split on what will happen. I've seen possible polar vortex making a cold arse winter but it depends on a lot of scenarios that don't seem likely. We haven't really seen any early cold fronts.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:22 pm to
Is that on the newest run? I haven't looked at it yet.
Posted by Clockwatcher68
Youngsville
Member since May 2006
6915 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

GFS sticking with that cold front next thursday over last 48 hours or so.

It’s exactly the same as an ongoing no-hitter.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19821 posts
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:16 pm to
After looking a little better today, likely from Jerry being void of deep convection, Karen is once again a mess with the MLC located on the north shore of PR with what appears to be the LLC racing off to the NE. In disorganized systems like this one there are usually multiple vorts rotating around a larger elongated circulation and it is possible that the storm spit one of those off the the NE and another one is tightening up under the deep convection near the MLC.







00z Early Cycle Tracks



Still a lot to be worked out but one good sign is that the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all keep Karen weak over the next 5 days.

Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15664 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:44 am to
Yeah- Karen has a very bleak future it would appear. Hostile conditions at every turn. Won’t be surprised if she just dissipates in the next couple days.
Posted by Teton Tiger
Somewhere between here and there.
Member since Mar 2005
2994 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:01 am to
quote:

Many of Louisiana’s worst hurricanes have come in October.
Hilda 1964 I think?
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99174 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:03 am to
Looks like Puerto Rico wasn't too kind to Karen.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90885 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:36 pm to
Latest GFS has a storm spinning up in the Caribbean and entering the gulf and becoming a major hurricane. Gets trapped and stalls over water in the southwest gulf not sure of projected path/landfall


ETA it was on the 12z. 18z has a depression hitting south Florida so that’s a big difference
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 5:38 pm
Posted by Nicky Parrish
Member since Apr 2016
7098 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:05 pm to
quote:

Hilda 1964 I think?

You are correct.
Tornado Went through LaRose above the Intracoastal, crossed Bayou Lafourche south of Valentine.
Thirty something people killed. A friend of my dad lost his mother, wife and mother in law.
I was 14. Remember it well.
Posted by cypresstiger
The South
Member since Aug 2008
10639 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:37 pm to
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