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Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:09 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:09 pm


This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 7:28 am
Top Replies
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:18 pm to
Pretty good consensus now on the westward turn but we have seen models be too aggressive with the ridge over the top of storms, so far this season. This isn't really a pattern that you would expect to see in late September but here we go. Right now, the biggest question is will there be much of a system for the ridge to turn westward?

00z Early Cycle Tracks



18z GEFS



12z Euor EPS



All Replies (132)
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41634 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:12 pm to
Can you elaborate on the potential Gulf threat?
Posted by Capt ST
Hotel California
Member since Aug 2011
12846 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:13 pm to
No kidding, it going to make a loop south?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

Potential Gulf Threat
Which “gulf”?
Posted by arcalades
USA
Member since Feb 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:14 pm to
looks like a bigger threat to Canada than the Gulf
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
13483 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:14 pm to
lol wut

Posted by deaconjones35
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2009
9802 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:15 pm to
If rds says it’s a potential Gulf threat, I’m buying 6 loaves of bread tomorrow.
Posted by deaconjones35
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2009
9802 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:16 pm to
I think you are looking at the wrong system.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
89884 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:16 pm to
quote:

Can you elaborate on the potential Gulf threat?


Maybe after the 8PM Friday point?

I'm sure he's talking long-term.
Posted by Fusaichi Pegasus
Meh He Co
Member since Oct 2010
14567 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:16 pm to
It’s about to take a 90degree turn due west, then kind of south
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41634 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:17 pm to
Well I’ll be dammed. The EURO takes her over south Florida and into Vermillion Bay on 10/2.
This post was edited on 9/23/19 at 9:00 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19812 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:18 pm to
Pretty good consensus now on the westward turn but we have seen models be too aggressive with the ridge over the top of storms, so far this season. This isn't really a pattern that you would expect to see in late September but here we go. Right now, the biggest question is will there be much of a system for the ridge to turn westward?

00z Early Cycle Tracks



18z GEFS



12z Euor EPS



Posted by Skooter
Member since Jun 2008
2253 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:18 pm to
Is the manager in the gulf?
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:19 pm to
Why do you hate us, rds dc?


quote:

Is the manager in the gulf?

Let me be your first upvote.
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 10:20 pm
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41634 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:21 pm to
Many of Louisiana’s worst hurricanes have come in October. Should be interesting to watch since the fronts we usually get by now seem to be nowhere to be found.

ETA: nah, believe it or not I was wrong when I said this. Whew, 34 years and I was finally wrong.
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 10:35 pm
Posted by Modern
Fiddy Men
Member since May 2011
16877 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:26 pm to
Karen sick of yalls shite. She coming for everyone’s manager.
Posted by crewdepoo
Hogwarts
Member since Jan 2015
9605 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:27 pm to
Watch out Alabama
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50836 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:29 pm to
Trump just released an updated cone


This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 10:42 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120322 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

Many of Louisiana’s worst hurricanes have come in October.


Well thats just false

Statistically
This post was edited on 9/22/19 at 10:30 pm
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56355 posts
Posted on 9/22/19 at 10:31 pm to
Gas
Water
Bread
Generator
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