re: Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat

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It's more of the middle of the screen but it's clearly still there at the end of the gif.

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ok, then lower middle of the screen- I don’t know about ‘clearly’ but it is barely there- there is a small area of convention trying to recover but for a few frames there was absolutely nothing.

Are we all gonna die or not? I just need to know as soon as possible

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Tropical Storm Karen

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This isn’t even a system right now and is probably going to fall apart when it gets North. The naming of these storms is getting out of hand.

Everything is turning into dust around here

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I've never wished a hurricane or tropical storm on anyone before, but we could REALLY use the rain here in Alabama

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Then hope it fricking rains soon, not come with a hurricane. This is the second Gump state jackass who has come in wishing for a hurricane.


"I don't care if I don't have electricity for a week, my roof gets blown off, and I have to pick up branches for a week. At least my yard will be watered finally. My wife/sister stuck the water hose where it doesn't belong again, and I told her that was the last time I was buying one."

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We need you Karen in Alabama. We are dry AF.

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X 1000

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This isn’t even a system right now and is probably going to fall apart when it gets North. The naming of these storms is getting out of hand.

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It used to be. Then shear happened.

It doesn't mean it's gone away forever, nor does it mean it was wrong initially.

Snow is projected in Canada this week so it's very possible a strong cold front makes it far south but we'll see. Would be nice.

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level
swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen
has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is
possible that a center reformation will occur near the new
convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical
cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of
30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still
supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure
of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should
remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength
is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen
could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.
Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it
passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely
to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall
over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable
intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the
intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack
of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good
agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into
a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by
Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer
ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and
western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and
could cause the system to essentially stall over the western
Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is
again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus
aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the
consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position
shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time
is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system
is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall,
flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown