re: The order of randomly shuffled deck of cards occurring twice, probably never happened.

I have been in a casino before. This could have been me

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I think you greatly underestimate how many people have shuffled how many decks of cards over how many times.

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To give you an idea of how many shuffles it would take if you shuffled once per second…

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So, just how large is it? Let's try to wrap our puny human brains around the magnitude of this number with a fun little theoretical exercise. Start a timer that will count down the number of seconds from 52! to 0.

We're going to see how much fun we can have before the timer counts down all the way. Shall we play a game?

Start by picking your favorite spot on the equator. You're going to walk around the world along the equator, but take a very leisurely pace of one step every billion years. The equatorial circumference of the Earth is 40,075,017 meters. Make sure to pack a deck of playing cards, so you can get in a few trillion hands of solitaire between steps.

After you complete your round the world trip, remove one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean. Now do the same thing again: walk around the world at one billion years per step, removing one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean each time you circle the globe. The Pacific Ocean contains 707.6 million cubic kilometers of water. Continue until the ocean is empty. When it is, take one sheet of paper and place it flat on the ground.

Now, fill the ocean back up and start the entire process all over again, adding a sheet of paper to the stack each time you’ve emptied the ocean.

Do this until the stack of paper reaches from the Earth to the Sun.

Take a glance at the timer, you will see that the three left-most digits haven’t even changed. You still have 8.063e67 more seconds to go. So, take the stack of papers down and do it all over again. One thousand times more. Unfortunately, that still won’t do it. There are still more than 5.385e67 seconds remaining. You’re just about a third of the way done.

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You're ignoring that every time a deck is shuffled, a new instance has now occurred.

You shuffle once, that is one instance. You shuffle again, it doesn't match your first instance but a second instance is now created and you have two possible points to match. So in and so forth.

I'd think it is more than likely that the same order has been repeated after a shuffle in the history of shuffling cards.

This is similar to the birthday paradox.

In a room of just 23 people, there is a 50-50 chance that at least 2 people share a birthday. In a room of 75 there's a 99.9% chance.

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look up some stats on PLO.

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Keep the Palestinians out of this…

I think its once every 1326 hands.

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You're more likely to win the lottery.

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You can win the lottery multiple times with compared to that ratio.

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I once played cards with a guy who dealt himself a royal flush 5 times in a row.

I lost a lot of money, but it was worth it to see such a rare event!

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He robbed you.

Even though the Falcons are supposed to go winless this season, I’d still bet $1 on them to win the SB given those odds

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I don't think this is comparable to the random permutations of a randomly shuffled deck of cards.

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Why? It's the same, just on a much larger scale.

Rather than 365 individual occurrences, there are 52!