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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:44 am to
Posted by Tigers2010a
Member since Jul 2021
3627 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Is going from Nola to BR pointless?


Still too early to say where to go or if you have to go at all but you need to be ready to go.

This one looks like it could be a mean one. How many times have the weather guys said Cat 2 or 3 and at the last moment, it blows up to Cat 4 or 5. Also I don't have a sense of just how large it will be. This one bears close watching and it is almost here.
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93706 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:45 am to
quote:

That seems way stronger than anyone else has been predicting, no?


This is what, I believe, is tough for some to grasp (for some reason), and I mean no offense to you - just posting "to" you.

It's really only been a few days since Ida has been a thing and, initially, all the info was based on models of a wave as no measurements had been taken of the storm and she hadn't yet developed into anything.

Therefore, a couple of days ago you have a wave with no actual data tied to it, then a named storm with multiple NOAA flights, so you're going to get much better forecasts associated with it.

Once the data started coming in, I believe one of the models bombed it pretty quickly, and then the others are seemingly getting closer to agreement with each update.

So, yes...it does seem stronger than they've been predicting, but in context, there wasn't much data of the actual storm being used for those early predictions.

Stay safe, everyone.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
8040 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:45 am to
@ Duke -- seems like Ida is getting stronger ahead of schedule.. Does a stronger storm push harder against that ridge and move the track a little more east?
Posted by VermilionTiger
Member since Dec 2012
39297 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:45 am to
quote:

So is this going to be afar 3 or 4? Worried about wind in Slidell area


Go away dude
Posted by DixonCider
H-Town
Member since Nov 2015
398 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:45 am to
quote:

want to be closer to the eye of the storm?


Dead center hit from the eye would be way better than taking the north east corner of this bastard. Especially with the elevation gain headed to BR.
Posted by fatboydave
Fat boy land
Member since Aug 2004
17979 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:45 am to
quote:

Hwy 90 is down to 1 lane crossing the river in Morgan City.


Not good for those going west
Posted by Friedbrie
Colorado Springs
Member since Jun 2018
1625 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:46 am to

This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 8:48 am
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61743 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:46 am to
quote:

Is going from Nola to BR pointless?


I left Metairie and went to BR for Gustav. Yeah that was not a good plan at all.
Posted by CockyTime
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2015
3393 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:46 am to
quote:

It will be interesting to watch for. Some of the models are showing a Cat 2 storm up around BR. That would definitely be close to that 100mph mark.


There is a small chance we see 100 MPH gusts here in BR but anyone who suggests we see sustained winds in that range is insane. There would be massive destruction throughout the entire city and many deaths with sustained winds in that range
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 8:48 am
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
25756 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:47 am to
quote:

Cantore noticeably absent on TV this morning. Where is he en route to



Taking bets now! Giving 5:1 odds on NOLA
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11967 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:48 am to
quote:

There is a small chance we see 100 MPH gusts here in BR but anyone who suggests we see sustained winds in that range is insane


Keep telling yourself that
Posted by trussthetruzz
Member since Sep 2020
9423 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:48 am to
that’s a cane
Posted by bee Rye
New orleans
Member since Jan 2006
34597 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:48 am to
quote:

I left Metairie and went to BR for Gustav. Yeah that was not a good plan at all.
lol, I did the same

for the guy asking about Slidell, thats all going to depend on if you live in Oak Harbor/Eden Isles or not
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Our in-house guys were predicting this as a possibility yesterday morning. Guess that would be good enough for the Private Meteorologist Bingo Square if you were counting.


I get this joke, but this region is heavy in oil and gas obviously, and many people work for companies that have private weather services. Most of them use StormGeo which gives you one on one access to a "private meteorologist".

So while it's funny and I definitely laugh, some of these people aren't lying.
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
32194 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Mandatory evacuation for all Mobile homes and manufactured homes i


OT is going to be busy this morning
Posted by LSU316
Rice and Easy Baby!!!
Member since Nov 2007
30294 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:49 am to
quote:

There is a small chance we see 100 MPH gusts here in BR but anyone who suggests we see sustained winds in that range is insane. There would be massive destruction throughout the entire city and many deaths with sustained winds in that range


Never say never....but yea I can't see 100 sustained in BR...just my untrained eye and history talking though.
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22984 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:49 am to
quote:

There is a small chance we see 100 MPH gusts here in BR but anyone who suggests we see sustained winds in that range is insane


Correct. Currently, there's only a projected 30-40% change of 74mph sustained winds. 74mph sustained winds is still significant and would cause widespread damage, but 100mph sustained winds would be catastrophic.

Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52621 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Slidell should be fine on this path.


It wouldn’t take much weakening of that high pressure to have the center go right over the Hammond area.
Posted by Zach Lee To Amp Hill
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2016
4989 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:50 am to


Is it me or did the models shift west and NHC is on the right side of guidance?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40243 posts
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:50 am to
How far west are the winds extending?? How bad is Lafayette area expected to be?
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