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Started By
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2
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to CockyTime
quote:The last GFS had 975mb pressure at BR's longitude, and the current NHC track takes it through BR.
There is a small chance we see 100 MPH gusts here in BR but anyone who suggests we see sustained winds in that range is insane.
975mb pressure is equal to a Cat 2. Cat 2 winds start at 96mph. So like I said pretty close to the 100mph mark. FWIW the HWRF has 964mb at the same longitude.
I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. I'm just looking at the models.
This post was edited on 8/27/21 at 8:56 am
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to Friedbrie
The center there looks north of where I thought it was.
But I'm not Duke or RDS
But I'm not Duke or RDS
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to UpToPar
quote:
Correct. Currently, there's only a projected 30-40% change of 74mph sustained winds.
Wind field is going to expand drastically
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Turning my fan on to blow this bitch east.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Is it me or did the models shift west and NHC is on the right side of guidance?
Models pretty much consolidating on Morgan City
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:51 am to tiger91
quote:
How far west are the winds extending?? How bad is Lafayette area expected to be?
You're going to get some TS force winds in laffy most likely.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:52 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Is it me or did the models shift west and NHC is on the right side of guidance?
current track from NHC looks like it splits the difference on those models
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:53 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Mandatory evacuation for zone 1 and 2 in Terrebonne, voluntary for zone 3 and 4. Mandatory evacuation for all Mobile homes and manufactured homes in Terrebonne as well.
you have a map of these zones please?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:53 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Is it me or did the models shift west and NHC is on the right side of guidance?
Not you. The trend is definitely a little west with 06z models.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:53 am to UpToPar
have we considered a nuclear bomb in the gulf to break it up yet?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:54 am to Motorboat
quote:
you have a map of these zones please?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to UpToPar
Yeah, that graphic is also saying there is only a 60% chance of hurricane force winds in general, which we all know isn't correct. 
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to bee Rye
Had a guy talking my ear off last night telling me that the government controls these things and if they wanted to kill it they would just drop a bomb in it.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to UpToPar
What are the time thresholds between gusts and sustained winds?
10 seconds versus 1 minute?
10 seconds versus 1 minute?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to bee Rye
quote:
have we considered a nuclear bomb in the gulf to break it up yet?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to BOSCEAUX
quote:Yeah, then um fricked in covington.
It wouldn’t take much weakening of that high pressure to have the center go right over the Hammond area
But at this time, it doesn't seem like a major wind event for Slidell. Am I wrong?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:55 am to Oates Mustache
quote:Fortune 100 telecommunications here. Lily, Inc. We have a whole GD staff of folks making the calls on events like this. The wireless side is especially sensitive to the when/where/what of these storms b/c they have to be pre-positioned for restoration work. We actually have a blimp which they launched in LC for emergency wireless comms. They had it in the air and working with the eye of Laura still spinning in NWLA.
many people work for companies that have private weather services
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:56 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
Steve Caparotta touched on that graphic a little this morning. As it gets closer, the hurricane force sustained wind chances will increase a good bit.
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