re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

quote:

---

Punta Cana

---

sorry your Sandals trip will be interrupted.

Is intensity modeling worth much at this point? Not being antagonistic, I really don't know.

quote:

---

Easy there fella. You're being as dramatic as my wife is right now over a fricking system that isn't even a real system yet. There's so much uncertainty with this thing right now. It's like some of you have never been through a hurricane season before.

---

I think we can safely say the current context is a little different than other seasons. How can you not see how people, many of whom lost everything or had family that lost homes and were displaced, would be a little on edge with the small possibly of another storm of any kind?

quote:

---

Computer models are giving forecasters little clarity on Tuesday, as a hurricane hunter recon flight turned up no closed low at the center of the storm.

Therefore, it remains an open tropical wave, with a high degree of uncertainty as to its track, intensity and the magnitude of its ultimate threat to the Southeast. The European model, which is generally more reliable than the American GFS, is predicting the storm will develop into a strong hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico during the next seven days.

---

(no message)

quote:

---

No, intensity modeling isn't worth shite right now. Take the models with a grain of salt in both direction and intensity until we at least have a closed low to look at.

---

This is actually not true. The Euro, for example, does not even use the NHC coordinates for the center location on even named storms. They run their models the same way, with or without a closed low to initialize with.

I will begin feeling better if we get two more runs from the Euro with west tracks, taking this into central Texas if possible. That would tell me that they are still trying to break that ridge down too soon which was my initial fear. I thought at first that they would break it down too soon and it would end up in Louisiana but now it appears they might have been underdoing it even more than I thought and it could miss us to the west completely. At least, that is now my hope.

My big fear is they have shown a Florida big bend hit, a TX hit and will now begin to focus in on the middle ground.

quote:

---

I think we can safely say the current context is a little different than other seasons. How can you not see how people, many of whom lost everything or had family that lost homes and were displaced, would be a little on edge with the small possibly of another storm of any kind?

---

I'm fully aware that the last thing we need here right now is any type of system. Even a tropical rainmaker would be potentially devastating to this area right now. No one is saying otherwise.

Thanks (to Duke too)