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Started By
Message
Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:19 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:19 am
Forecast Model Times:
GFS:
00z - 10:30 pm
06z - 4:30 am
12z - 10:30 am
18z - 4:30 pm
Euro:
00z - 12:45 am
12z - 12:45 pm
This post was edited on 9/3/16 at 9:59 am
47
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:22 am to rds dc
BOOOO!!!
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:32 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:34 am to geauxtigers87
Going to be interesting how it develops. Should know a lot more by Saturday.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:35 am to IT_Dawg
Looks like I need to postpone my SFL trip.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:37 am to rds dc
nm
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:40 am to Chad504boy
quote:thanks for reminding me. You couldn't have bumped my policy up or something 2 weeks?
THERE'S A 30 DAY WAIT!
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:01 pm to rds dc
Recon found a pretty disorganized wave and the popcorn nature of the convection hasn't really allowed for any vertical growth. There is very little in the way of 500mb vorticity associated with the wave. Research shows that shallow waves are less likely to develop than deeper waves.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:02 pm to rds dc
so probably not going to hit us....but FLA is fricked
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:03 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/28/19 at 9:42 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:04 pm to rds dc
quote:
Research shows that shallow waves are less likely to develop than deeper waves.
HWRF is pretty bullish with this system, but it always is. GFS and EURO are polar opposites. They are all pretty consistent with something reaching the Bahamas.
If the past couple of years are of use as an analogue, the models will predict a catastrophic 910 mb bomb and it will dissipate before even gaining tropical depression status. I'm keeping a distant eye on this until we see a closed circulation.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:04 pm to rds dc
Will this affect my Punta Cana Trip?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:06 pm to rds dc
Also, 12z HWRF came in with what might end up being a more realistic upper level setup and doesn't blow the system up. It gave up on having a giant anitcyclone over the top and has a more sheared system. Model flip flopping in full force 
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:07 pm to bamarep
quote:
Will this affect my Punta Cana Trip?
Does this trip have dates attached to it?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:08 pm to rds dc
Can you translate this into something that anyone understands?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:09 pm to Wimp Lo
More recent model showed more favorable conditions for development of a tropical cyclone, but the model didnt develop the system in question. Very paradoxical...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:10 pm to Wimp Lo
We fricked.
Also Peej said we have nothing to worry about with this one in the other thread.
Take that as you will...
Also Peej said we have nothing to worry about with this one in the other thread.
Take that as you will...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:10 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
Can you translate this into something that anyone understands?
12z HWRF had a weaker system that is encountering more wind shear than previous runs.
Also, Euro looks pretty bullish through 60 hrs
Posted on 8/23/16 at 1:11 pm to rds dc
My rule of thumb is that if there is a fully formed cyclone moving through the Florida straits in August/September, get prepared.
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