re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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I think there will probably be a better idea by Saturday.

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ok thanks

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making preparations?

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People are going to freak out big time when this thing gets a name. I'm gonna go ahead and make sure we have flash light and batteries and make sure the generator is gtg

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Is there a chart for what models to watch and what to ignore. I just see a bunch of random letters.

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When watching each model this far out. Look for trends, consistency between each model run, consistency between different models, on the ensemble runs-look at how spread out they are, and where the operational run falls on the spectrum, if it's in the middle, or an outlier, look at the different plots (vorticity, pressure, etc.), see the steering patterns and what could promote or hinder development.

As far as specific models, they all have their benefits and flaws. There are many different models, you have dynamic models, such as the Euro, GFS, CMC, UKMET. You have your statistical models, such as the SHIPS or CLIPER, which are used as a benchmark for the more dynamic models. Then you have your ensembles, which are used to check the accuracy of the dynamic models. On top of that, there are the consensus models, which take multiple models into account, like the TVCN which is a big factor in the official NHC tracks.

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Is it ok to be kinda relieved that Louisiana is in the bullseye? With a storm this far out, chances have to be very slim that it actually ends up where they are predicting. Could we see more westerly shift?

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Sometimes. However, if I recall, Rita, Gustav and Isaac had very little shift from the early projections. Louisiana pretty much stayed in the "cone of uncertainty" for the entire run.

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What's the Euro model show? That's the only one that matters.

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same as it has for the last 4 runs

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my only thing is supplies are low around here in BR. I mean stores have restocked for the most part but plywood etc is in demand.

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Yep going to be a total shite show for LA supply wise if this storm comes anywhere close.

Whatever happened to Mr. Tom Morrow?

rds, Geauxmedic, and Mr. Tom Morrow along with peej have always been my TD.com goto weather gurus.

I have two met sources this morning that are most concerned with Louisiana landfall if it even makes it into the Gulf, and I have no reason to not trust them. Thinking is GFS is shite, and Euro may be too far west.

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GEAUXmedic

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meaning that the Rita track is too far west?

by how much are they talking? i have a bad feeling about this one that it's going to come in around where Katrina did at a sharper angle from the east which is worst case scenario for the state.

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baytiger

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The voice of reason..