- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Reports of over 20 young camp girls missing In TX floods
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:11 pm to Pecos Pedro
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:11 pm to Pecos Pedro
thanks for the info.
sometimes there's only so much you can do when mother nature conspires against you. i doubt that there will be much recrimination against the camp owners and staff at least i hope not
sometimes there's only so much you can do when mother nature conspires against you. i doubt that there will be much recrimination against the camp owners and staff at least i hope not
1
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:12 pm to SWLA92
quote:
Just watched a video of a women saying her husband saved her, their kids and his mother by breaking a window and getting onto the roof but in the process he cut his arm and severed his artery and bled to death. Just an absolutely sad scenario. This event is so heartbreaking
I just read a post about that. He was 27. Terrible.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:13 pm to Clark14
In 1986 I went on a men's group trip from my church to canoe the Buffalo River. We camped out on a sand bar on one side. Around 4:00am we were all woken by rising water. There has been a major storm hit the western part of the state. We were in the middle of the state and the water worked its way down to us. We all quickly loaded up, got into our canoes and held onto tree branches it rose. It came up about 4'-5' but that was a lot of water. Considering we were in a canyon and had seen tree logs stuck up in trees twenty feet off the river, 4'-5' was nowhere near what it could get up to. Pretty scary when it's dark and all you can do is hold on and ride it out.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:15 pm to 257WBY
quote:
That’s a warning for a fairly specific area. I see that it’s 1 am, but fairly sure all of those camps have security that is on patrol during the night and should be getting that warning.
I just put together all of the Mesoscale Convective Discussions from the WPC and Tweets made by NWS San Antonio leading up to and during the flash flooding. It is too much to put here.
I'd like to know the better local news/weather outlets to try to get an idea of how they covered it in the area, but I don't know the news channels there.
This post was edited on 7/5/25 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:17 pm to Pecos Pedro
They saved lives. They just couldn't save them all. So tragic. It really knocks the breath out of you and we aren't affected directly, so you can only imagine how those folks feel.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:18 pm to Pecos Pedro
That's interesting, thanks for this.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:26 pm to LegendInMyMind
Check out Meteorologist Steve Browne on FB. He was was on the ABC affiliate in SA which is KSAT for decades, Steve is old school and didn't mesh with the new ownership. He was warning of all the same factors lining up as previous flooding events in the same area 3 to 5 days ago on his page. Shame he didn't have a bigger platform to warn folks.
This post was edited on 7/5/25 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:27 pm to TxWadingFool
quote:
Check out Meteorologist Steve Browne on FB. He was was on the ABC affiliate in SA which is KSAT for decades, Steve is old school and didn't mesh with the new ownership. He was warning of all the same factors lining up as previous flooding events in the same area 3 to 5 days ago on his page. Shame he didn't have a bigger platform to warn folks.
Thanks.
I don't have Facebook, but I will try to find his stuff elsewhere.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
5 days ago:
23 years ago a massive flood inundated our area. July 1-5, 2002 produced over 15" of rain in SA with some parts of the hill country near Comfort getting over 48" of rain that week. By the end of that week Canyon Lake overflowed its spillway for the first and only time ever, carving out a huge gorge and washing out the road below the dam. Medina Lake threatened to go over the top of its dam on July 5th which led Judge and Mayor Wolff to issue an evacuation order to those living along the Medina river because if the dam overflowed, the integrity of the dam could not be trusted.
It's a good time to remember those events because there are some similarities on the weather map this first week of July 2025. We have tropical moisture from Barry surging into So. TX right now. Some of that moisture will reach as far north as SA late today with scattered T-Showers likely here. That tropical moisture will continue to stream northward into our area for the next few days with additional T-Showers likely through the 4th of July.
In 2002 a weak upper level low formed across our area as the tropical moisture surged in resulting in that historic flood. In 2002 that upper level low channeled rains into bands that "trained" along the same tracks resulting in the unprecedented flooding back then. This week we will also have a weak low in the upper atmosphere forming across Texas.
No two weather patterns are ever exactly the same and more than likely this week will just bring welcome rain totals to help us out of this 5 year long drought. Tropical downpours can be fierce and are always problematic to forecast accurately. I'm definitely not saying this will be a repeat of 2002 but be aware that there are some similarities that bear watching especially if you plan to spend some camping time along one of our rivers for this holiday week. As always, the uncertainty of the weather is what makes it so darn interesting.
23 years ago a massive flood inundated our area. July 1-5, 2002 produced over 15" of rain in SA with some parts of the hill country near Comfort getting over 48" of rain that week. By the end of that week Canyon Lake overflowed its spillway for the first and only time ever, carving out a huge gorge and washing out the road below the dam. Medina Lake threatened to go over the top of its dam on July 5th which led Judge and Mayor Wolff to issue an evacuation order to those living along the Medina river because if the dam overflowed, the integrity of the dam could not be trusted.
It's a good time to remember those events because there are some similarities on the weather map this first week of July 2025. We have tropical moisture from Barry surging into So. TX right now. Some of that moisture will reach as far north as SA late today with scattered T-Showers likely here. That tropical moisture will continue to stream northward into our area for the next few days with additional T-Showers likely through the 4th of July.
In 2002 a weak upper level low formed across our area as the tropical moisture surged in resulting in that historic flood. In 2002 that upper level low channeled rains into bands that "trained" along the same tracks resulting in the unprecedented flooding back then. This week we will also have a weak low in the upper atmosphere forming across Texas.
No two weather patterns are ever exactly the same and more than likely this week will just bring welcome rain totals to help us out of this 5 year long drought. Tropical downpours can be fierce and are always problematic to forecast accurately. I'm definitely not saying this will be a repeat of 2002 but be aware that there are some similarities that bear watching especially if you plan to spend some camping time along one of our rivers for this holiday week. As always, the uncertainty of the weather is what makes it so darn interesting.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I don't have Facebook, but I will try to find his stuff elsewhere.
If his page is public, you shouldn't need FB to read it, I don't think.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:30 pm to TxWadingFool
3 days ago:
Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002. So far this week rain has been manageable in SA but there have been some channels of 4"+ rainfall west of SA between Uvalde and Del Rio. Tonight, that channel will shift eastward, very close by, between SA and Rocksprings. The Del Rio weather balloon this morning shows a nearly saturated atmosphere from the ground up to 45,000 feet. That's like a nine mile deep, soaking wet sponge hanging overhead in the atmosphere.
Upper level wind currents will be converging over the hill country the next 24-36 hours. That says to me, there is potential at least, for a rain bomb event with rain totals over 6" where rains channel up and "train" over the same track for an extended period. These events usually seem to develop at night and can result in severe flash flooding.
Conventional computer models are notoriously poor at forecasting these events because the grid scale of most models is much too coarse to pick them up. That being said there is one high resolution model that is hinting at such an event developing tonight. That's enough for me to take notice and you should too. The ingredients are there, and we'll see how it plays out. Just remember we recently lost 13 people in a flash flood. We may not be in tornado alley but we do live in flash flood alley. If you come across a flooded roadway with one of those flood sticks and you can't see the 1 foot mark. Turn around, Don't drown.
Rain bomb potential. Earlier this week I talked about similarities on this week's weather maps to what we saw in the great July flood of 2002. So far this week rain has been manageable in SA but there have been some channels of 4"+ rainfall west of SA between Uvalde and Del Rio. Tonight, that channel will shift eastward, very close by, between SA and Rocksprings. The Del Rio weather balloon this morning shows a nearly saturated atmosphere from the ground up to 45,000 feet. That's like a nine mile deep, soaking wet sponge hanging overhead in the atmosphere.
Upper level wind currents will be converging over the hill country the next 24-36 hours. That says to me, there is potential at least, for a rain bomb event with rain totals over 6" where rains channel up and "train" over the same track for an extended period. These events usually seem to develop at night and can result in severe flash flooding.
Conventional computer models are notoriously poor at forecasting these events because the grid scale of most models is much too coarse to pick them up. That being said there is one high resolution model that is hinting at such an event developing tonight. That's enough for me to take notice and you should too. The ingredients are there, and we'll see how it plays out. Just remember we recently lost 13 people in a flash flood. We may not be in tornado alley but we do live in flash flood alley. If you come across a flooded roadway with one of those flood sticks and you can't see the 1 foot mark. Turn around, Don't drown.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:31 pm to TxWadingFool
Yesterday:
The Rain Bomb exploded last night! The core of the bomb was focused just north of Junction between Mason and San Angelo with spokes extending down into Western Kerr and Bandera counties. Radar indicates rain totals in these areas were in the 8-12" range. This is structured like a warm core Tropical Low over land with 60,000 foot tall T-Storms. Wowzer! Heavy rains continue in that area this morning and I'm sure the flooding issues there are fearsome. The good news is a lot of that water is moving into Canyon and Medina Lakes. SA has officially had a skimpy .27" while my rain gauge in NW Bexar shows 1.6" so far.
The core of this tropical bomb system is moving SE down I-10 and its remains will be near SA tonight. History says the system will weaken today but off and on showers will likely continue here all day. The big question is whether or not the core of this bomb will explode again tonight. I believe there's a fair chance it will and this time it will be very close to being centered around SA late tonight with another round of flooding issues. We'll see what happens. In the meanwhile, happy-soggy July 4th 2025. The 23rd anniversary of the July 2002 rain bomb!
The Rain Bomb exploded last night! The core of the bomb was focused just north of Junction between Mason and San Angelo with spokes extending down into Western Kerr and Bandera counties. Radar indicates rain totals in these areas were in the 8-12" range. This is structured like a warm core Tropical Low over land with 60,000 foot tall T-Storms. Wowzer! Heavy rains continue in that area this morning and I'm sure the flooding issues there are fearsome. The good news is a lot of that water is moving into Canyon and Medina Lakes. SA has officially had a skimpy .27" while my rain gauge in NW Bexar shows 1.6" so far.
The core of this tropical bomb system is moving SE down I-10 and its remains will be near SA tonight. History says the system will weaken today but off and on showers will likely continue here all day. The big question is whether or not the core of this bomb will explode again tonight. I believe there's a fair chance it will and this time it will be very close to being centered around SA late tonight with another round of flooding issues. We'll see what happens. In the meanwhile, happy-soggy July 4th 2025. The 23rd anniversary of the July 2002 rain bomb!
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:37 pm to cgrand
These pics I’m seeing are just tragic and horrendous. Mother Nature can be very wicked at times. That amount of rain in that short of time to make that river rise 26’ is astonishing.. prayers still coming….
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:38 pm to TxWadingFool
Pushing 26 inches between Marble Falls and Round Rock just insane
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:39 pm to HubbaBubba
Similar situation on the Buffalo River in the 90s. I decided our group was going to make a big push and get to the takeout that day instead of spending another night on the river. That was the weather event that put a tornado in Fort Smith.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:45 pm to Pecos Pedro
quote:
Pecos Pedro
Thanks for that. Clears up a lot. Heartbreaking
Maybe it’s time to reassess things and add a little more protection and regulation in flash flood zones. 16 were killed in Arkansas in 2010. A Boy Scout camp in New Mexico was hit and one died in 2015. Might have been preventable.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:46 pm to TxWadingFool
Here is his update from about 3 hours ago when we were under the gun just east of SA. Plenty of localized flooding in the NB and Seguin area from the down pour this morning. He goes into what he looks for leading up these events.
Another rain bomb is going off now between SA and Gonzales. This is downstream of Canyon Lake and those on the Guadulupe downstream will experience river flooding. From New Braunfels to Gonzales to Cuero. The clouds making the bomb again are up over 55,000 feet high. Rainfall rates can exceed 4" per hour. Things can change in a hurry.
The physics behind these rain bombs is fascinating to this old chunk of coal. They are obviously difficult to predict and exceptionally dangerous. Computers rain forecasts are pretty useless in these situations which is why the TV mets that rely on them appear hamstrung. Here's what I know to look for.
First, a deep tropical atmosphere that is near saturation from the ground up to over 40,000 feet. That occurs rarely, but often with a tropical system that has come in off the Gulf, Like Barry. Second is a focusing mechanism like a trof of low pressure at the 10,000' to 20,000' level. That's what we had in the July Flood of 2002 and its the same now. That trof converges juicy air currents and forces them to lift. Once the lifting process begins the wet air releases latent heat of condensation and that heat makes the cloud lift rapidly upward like a hot air balloon. It's the same process that fuels hurricanes except they're over land. Computer models are pretty lousy calculating that heat release and none of them can pinpoint the bullseye of these rain bombs. Neither can I. All I can see is the potential.
What's next? The saturated atmosphere is still with us. The trof of low pressure now east of SA will be shifting slowly westward over SA back into the Hill country next 36 hours. By Monday it will be far west and out of here. Until then the radar will tell the story and it will change from hour to hour. I expect more pockets of torrential rain so pay attention and stay safe out there.
Another rain bomb is going off now between SA and Gonzales. This is downstream of Canyon Lake and those on the Guadulupe downstream will experience river flooding. From New Braunfels to Gonzales to Cuero. The clouds making the bomb again are up over 55,000 feet high. Rainfall rates can exceed 4" per hour. Things can change in a hurry.
The physics behind these rain bombs is fascinating to this old chunk of coal. They are obviously difficult to predict and exceptionally dangerous. Computers rain forecasts are pretty useless in these situations which is why the TV mets that rely on them appear hamstrung. Here's what I know to look for.
First, a deep tropical atmosphere that is near saturation from the ground up to over 40,000 feet. That occurs rarely, but often with a tropical system that has come in off the Gulf, Like Barry. Second is a focusing mechanism like a trof of low pressure at the 10,000' to 20,000' level. That's what we had in the July Flood of 2002 and its the same now. That trof converges juicy air currents and forces them to lift. Once the lifting process begins the wet air releases latent heat of condensation and that heat makes the cloud lift rapidly upward like a hot air balloon. It's the same process that fuels hurricanes except they're over land. Computer models are pretty lousy calculating that heat release and none of them can pinpoint the bullseye of these rain bombs. Neither can I. All I can see is the potential.
What's next? The saturated atmosphere is still with us. The trof of low pressure now east of SA will be shifting slowly westward over SA back into the Hill country next 36 hours. By Monday it will be far west and out of here. Until then the radar will tell the story and it will change from hour to hour. I expect more pockets of torrential rain so pay attention and stay safe out there.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:51 pm to Pecos Pedro
At this point everyone is just praying for a miracle. It’s devastating.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:52 pm to TxWadingFool
2" today about 3 miles SE of Bucees in Luling.
Posted on 7/5/25 at 2:55 pm to AGGIES
Yeah my family friends daughter still hasn’t been found. Would take an absolute miracle for her to be found alive at this point
Page 14 of 52
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News