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Started By
Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:36 am to back9Tiger
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:36 am to back9Tiger
quote:
Yes, I'm in the industry. over 425 plants have shuttered in the path. That is 200 plus chem plants, 200 plus petro plants and the rest misc and power.
I knew there was a lot of industry out there but I had no idea there were 425 paths in Lake Charles... or are you counting a larger area?
3
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:36 am to OldSouth
quote:
The state west of I-49 WILL lose power
I agree. This kind of wind can damage the large transmission towers and substations. If those are out, nobody has power regardless of your local conditions.
Gustav wrecked the power grid and this will almost surely be much worse.
ETA - Also substations can be flooded by surge or river flooding in some areas.
This post was edited on 8/26/20 at 11:39 am
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:37 am to NorthEndZone
Not to mention right of ways probably havent been maintained in areas
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:37 am to DLauw
quote:
Looks like I’m headed to Metairie.
2020 has gone full blown nuts with people evacuating to NOLA for a hurricane.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:38 am to LSUFanHouston
From Port Arthur to Cameron.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:38 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:39 am to YatInTheHat
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:39 am to Mr. Hangover
Imo if you’re a hotel owner in an area that’s getting a ton of evacuees and you don’t let the “no pets” rule slide, or at the least allow them with an extra cleaning charge, you’re a piece of shite along with the price gougers.
These people might lose everything. Give them shelter with their pet it’s not a big deal.
These people might lose everything. Give them shelter with their pet it’s not a big deal.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:40 am to RedHawk
quote:
2020 has gone full blown nuts with people evacuating to NOLA for a hurricane.
Lol. I was thinking the same thing. Strange times indeed.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:40 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
I agree. This kind of wind can damage the large transmission towers and substations. If those are out, nobody has power regardless of your local conditions.
A bit off topic, but I have never seen high tension power pole/line damage like what I saw after the April 27, 2011 Hackleburg tornado crossed the TN river and took out several near the Nuclear Plant. They were bent over like they were toys. Just folded over double and twisted. I am still amazed by the pictures.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:40 am to YatInTheHat
Governor on now saying if you think you’re safe since you made it through Rita, this surge is higher. The winds are higher.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:40 am to YatInTheHat
Not sure if this has been posted already, but Eric at Space City Weather talking about what could have happened in Houston. Frickin scary man. Praying for all those in SWLA:
quote:
Here's some real talk. If a 145-mph Laura were to make landfall in Freeport or San Luis pass, Houston as we know it would be pretty much gone. Surge inundating Galveston Bay, energy assets. Wind damage across the entire city. Power outages for weeks to months. We are unprepared.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:40 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/15/23 at 7:19 am
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:41 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Okay, someone help me out. Rita’s surge was 15’-16’. Ike’s was 20’. Why is this projection so much higher than those with a similar surge projected?
Didn't they change how they model/report this a few years ago? Maybe they changed it from above sea level to above ground level?
Maybe someone smarter can chime in.
In short, yes. NOAA uses the SLOSH model which is very rudimentary. They predict storm surge at a very unresolved level which doesnt take into account every landform which may locally influence water levels and then they just overlay water these coarse water level predictions with a refined digital elevation (terrain) model and sortof make it look like it is results at a granular scale. The better place for storm surge predictions is here, run in part by local institutions like The Water Institute and LSU and uses the ADCIRC model, which is the state of the science.
SLOSH gives a doomsday prediction, which may be intentional by the feds to get the message across. CERA gives a much more realistic look (but in Laura's case, it is still a doomsday prediction).
This post was edited on 8/26/20 at 11:43 am
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:41 am to LesGeaux45
Damn, good timing
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:41 am to BillyGibbons
quote:
2020 has gone full blown nuts with people evacuating to NOLA for a hurricane.
Lol. I was thinking the same thing. Strange times indeed.
I evacuated to NOLA for Andrew
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:41 am to DLauw
quote:
Looks like I’m headed Harvey.
May be better off riding out the storm.
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:42 am to msutiger
quote:haven't they had a few warning shots recently?
Laura and this should be the warning shot to push the city into action
This post was edited on 8/26/20 at 11:42 am
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:42 am to Tigerfan1274
High tide. Plus rain water back logging in calcasieu river
Posted on 8/26/20 at 11:42 am to LSUFanHouston
To be specific and to show the massive scale of Laura's projected impact footprint:
Confirmed more than 425 industrial plant assets have been shuttered in advance of Hurricane Laura making landfall. Onshore, this includes more than 225 petroleum refining units totaling more than 2.8 MM BBL/d of refining capacity, 14 ethylene crackers totaling 22.8 billion lbs/yr capacity and related polyolefin units.
Offshore, the potential impact on production now stands at 382 platforms and shut-in capacity of approximately 1.7 MM BBL/d of oil production and 2.6 Bcf/d of natural gas production.
Confirmed more than 425 industrial plant assets have been shuttered in advance of Hurricane Laura making landfall. Onshore, this includes more than 225 petroleum refining units totaling more than 2.8 MM BBL/d of refining capacity, 14 ethylene crackers totaling 22.8 billion lbs/yr capacity and related polyolefin units.
Offshore, the potential impact on production now stands at 382 platforms and shut-in capacity of approximately 1.7 MM BBL/d of oil production and 2.6 Bcf/d of natural gas production.
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