re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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ISW maps of the main Eastern front May 13th vs a week ago May 6th.

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Where are all the advances I’m supposed to be seeing?

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The whole point everyone is making in response to you, despite your refusal to actually process said info, is that those gains, while yes they are Russian gains, are so minimal, that within the context of the situation, are considered victories as of current for Ukraine.

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Ukraine steadily losing ground on the major front is actually a victory. Damn. Ukraine can’t lose.

That is your problem. I wrote one thing, and you read it how to best fit your narrative.

Is it genuine stupidity or simply lack of desire to have an honest conversation with self? That sir, is of the worst variety of illness. No way to live.

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I subscribe more to this one.

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You subscribe to the New York Times? A bit of a surprise.

Those popped terrets are so revealing about this war. Years from now there will be children’s songs about them.

Up and down the Ukie roads,
The monkeys chased the ferrets,
Then the eagle stopped the chase,
Pop! went the turrets.

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Please post the text behind the paywall

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Same article; no paywall

Ukraine war’s geographic reality: Russia has seized much of the East

ISW update for May 13th

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Key Takeaways

Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.

Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.

Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.

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Immediate items to watch

Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.

The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, including by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River, but may have lost the momentum needed to complete this undertaking.

Isolated and uncoordinated Russian attacks will likely continue along the rest of the Izyum-Donetsk City salient but will not likely make significant gains.

Russian troops may attempt to drive to within artillery range of Zaporizhia City, although it is far from clear that they will succeed.

The Battle of Mariupol will, apparently and surprisingly, continue.

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Those look like WW2 Soviet helmets too.

If you can get behind thee paywall here is a long Times article about the Putin family.

LINK

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Losing territory slowly is not a bad option for Ukraine right now. Time is on their side as they are being re-supplied by the west, and Russian factories are shut down.

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But for how much longer.

Putin was an idiot for not just going into breakaways only and pushing west some and then just using borderization tactics like in Georgia, but that is still a fallback that can be drawn out over time if needed. This is still wrong, but would have solidifying positions with less actual battles & loses while west got tired of it.

Regardless of issues on the Russian home front is Putin in better spot to continue this for next 6 to 9 months than the US is to continue sending current amount of aid or more while also keeping weapons out of the hands of our enemies including Russia after leaving billions in Afghanistan? March $13 billion package and now most likely a $40 billion package this month to last supposedly until September (House added $7 billion above President’s request but apparently its wrong to debate having Inspector General oversee how funds are spent).

Outside of cancer he doesn’t seem to going anywhere and Russians are more used to having less than Americans. US inflation including food & gas prices, stock market, and even keeping baby formula are issues that at least start to make people question funding other countries especially when numbers start hitting May figures (& it’s borrowed or printed). We will be at $54 billion this year and counting (not counting previous aid), and the other countries helping are having issues in their own countries as well.

One poll before current bill might be showing support for aid starting to slip a little, but the way it focused on amount of help & before this larger bill leaves room to see it differently (doing to much % increasing; doing enough also increased; not doing enough decreasing).

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Pew found that 12 percent of U.S. adults now believe the country is providing too much support to Ukraine. That's up from 7 percent in March, when Congress approved a $13.6 billion aid package.

The share of Americans saying the support the U.S. is providing is "about right" rose from 32 percent in March to 35 percent in May, while fewer respondents now believe the U.S. isn't doing enough.

In March, 42 percent of Americans said the U.S. wasn't doing enough, but that figure has fallen to just 31 percent.

The share of respondents who said they were "not sure" rose from 19 percent to 22 percent.

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This bill which will run out in September is the one pushing me to start thinking the amount of money the US will send in aid is going to be much higher and for a longer period than expected. We are also still limited in ability to track weapons sent, and this bill will triple the amount already sent so far.

Though I have always disliked & never trusted Putin throwing increasing amounts of money and weapons to Ukraine without any certainty how long before increasing aid stops yet alone when decreasing will start plus the below crap make me care a little less about Ukraine.

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“We all saw a @CNN video where [Russian] soldiers shot civilians in the back just for fun,” tweeted Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. “How many such crimes are happening at the moment in the east and south of [Ukraine]? Price of delay per day – hundreds killed and raped. Price per week – thousands. Have a nice morning coffee, @RandPaul.”

“We could have already started using the new U.S. assistance package to more effectively save lives of Ukrainians who defend the democratic world. @POTUS, @SecBlinken, @SenateGOP, @SenateDems and American people were in strong support, and @RandPaul delayed so much needed support,” wrote Dymtro Kulbea, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs. 

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Be thankful for what you get & when. It’s not their money nor do they have a say. I agree with inspector general being added to oversee how funds are spent. It’s shameful the house added $7 billion above President’s request and then the Senate & Ukraine expected unanimous consent to vote on house bill as is.


Some below are from April but would like to see less of all of it while tripling the amount of weapons sent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-happens-to-weapons-sent-to-ukraine-the-us-doesnt-really-know/ar-AAWntsN

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/ukraine/2022/04/ukraine-220419-sputnik01.htm

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ex-spies-and-diplomats-say-the-biden-administration-needs-to-shut-up-after-nyt-report-about-us-intelligence-helping-ukraine-kill-russian-generals/ar-AAWZVU7

https://www.twincities.com/2022/05/02/push-to-arm-ukraine-putting-strain-on-us-weapons-stockpile/