re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The Russians may declare victory by absorbing some Ukrainian land into Russia. Once they turn it into rubble.

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Didn’t two of the worlds largest militaries try this in Afghanistan? How did that work out? Russia can claim all the territory they want but the resistance won’t stop because of money and weapons that’s coming from the west. I honestly believe this is a proxy war at this point and we can’t afford to loose it.

This made me think of how in a number of non-kinetic ways, OBL severely damaged the US
- the PATRIOT ACT and the surveillance state
- burning trillions of dollars that we don't have
- one can argue we created as many enemies as we killed
- thousands of US and allied dead and wounded.

How much damage financially, economically and militarily (eg stockpiles) will this support of Ukraine damage us in the long run?

Good news

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#Donetsk Axis - #Ukrainian troops have counterattacked #Russian forces in the town of Neskuchne. The #Ukraine attack came from the N. This also confirms that ???? controls Vremivka to the N. ???? also shelled what is believed to be the ???? HQ in Neskuchne. Video in next tweet. LINK

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But not all good news

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#Donetsk Axis - #Russian forces have breached the E defenses around the town of Novobahmutovka. #Ukrainian forces are still contesting the W half of the city but ???? forces are advancing. ???? is trying to encircle #Avdiivka to the S. Video confirmation in next tweet. LINK

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Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
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10h
#RUSSIA: The #Omsk conscription office was pelted with Molotov cocktails thru windows at 4am last night. Fire extinguished. Much of the conscription database is stored on paper in such offices. 3rd-world country. These are #RussianResistance attempts to prevent #mobilization.

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LINK

The Russian people are really rallying around the flag for uncle vlad's war.

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I honestly believe this is a proxy war at this point and we can’t afford to loose it.

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From POV of the US what do consider a loss, and what do you consider a victory? Ukraine’s view of victory is not required to hurt Russia.

The new map of northern Europe:

Busy morning, lots of things I’m trying to unpack today. My Latvian/Lithuanian friends are talking about Finland Sweden and also how the Kremlin’s disinformation is falling on deaf ears even among people who would normally be sympathetic. People in Russia in Banks and State “private” companies that I know are in full blown panic. Corporate guys keep disappearing or are being detained for a week then coming back to the office like “husks” or spouting optimistic wooden bullshite that sound like Kremlin talking points. The biggest question that’s being asked or posed amongst the sympathetic is “what’s taking so long?” Why is this special military operation that should take a week dragging on? It’s couched in patriotic tones like we should throw more and better at the Ukrainian military…news about Finland and Sweden joining NATO is adding to the panic. Russians though most don’t understand, have taken a sort of odd pride in hacker GRU FSB actions and are wondering wtf is going on? What’s going on is two fold, 1 certain Americans have explained any cyber shite against US or nato countries will be perceived as an act of aggression met with some pretty severe disproportionate reactions. 2 Russian cyber is fending off some pretty crazy shite from some unnamed sources including critical infrastructure in Russia. This part was revealing for me again, as it seems the call is coming from inside the house. Ie for whatever reasons Russian cyber people are engaged in self sabotage campaigns. I’m completely persuaded to the idea Russia won’t use Nukes Bio chem weapons in this war. Militarily Russia is in real danger of being subsumed by what amounts to superior forces and equipment. Morale in RU forces is absolute shite and has been for weeks (Kiev offensive Moskva sinking) but that river crossing massacre news has gone through the RU military quickly and undeniably to the point where soldiers are quitting. I’m talking about all manner of fragging, disobeying direct orders, leaving units and heading for home! People aren’t being court marshalled because RU isn’t at war so no repercussions it’s like a McDonald’s cook saying “frick this I’m out of here” mid shift. RU Soldiers and Wagner group folks aren’t getting paid or aren’t receiving what they were promised. My Russian guy always liked the term clusterfrick back in the day, he said it a dozen times today. The number of sorties the RU boys are flying is way down from the beginning of the war, Ukrainians are starting to assert themselves in the sky but also there’s technology that’s really messing with Russian comms. I’m forgetting something else but as I said a lot to unpack.

Many many more days to come where some members of this thread will be mourning. People I know are also asking why this latest offensive was so rushed? Full consolidation of battalions, battle groups hadn’t occurred when order was given to push from the east. The river crossing was attempted 3 times when both initial crossings had failed miserably, I’m also hearing RU intercepts confirmed Russian dead is right around the 1000 mark for that event that Ukies are not exaggerating.

I've got a question about artillery and armored vehicles. I'm guessing that any armored vehicle can be destroyed by a direct hit from an artillery shell, but what about shell fragments? I figure that tanks would be armored enough to not get killed by fragments, but maybe they could get mobility disabled from the tracks or something. But what about the IFVs? Can shell fragments actually penetrate those?

Modern Russia is messed up