re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And to remind everyone, I detest Biden, progressives, and just about every single domestic policy in this country at the moment.

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We know. We know.

Just quoted the last poster.

A war is political adjacent so you can't wipe out politics all together. I hate politics on the OT but Chicken doesn't mind politics leaking out and it is his sandbox. 30 plus percent of tOT threads would be axed on forums with a pure no politics or religion rule and moved on most forums with a political forum. That just isn't the case here.

The best I can hope for is when politics come in someone bothers to at least try to make it germane to the war but the problem is some see everything through a political lens. While it is sometimes difficult I just try to scroll past the posters for whom politics is the only real subject they care to talk about.

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Initially yesterday was only screenshots of the ISW updates

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This was your first post yesterday where you said

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Russia is making gains everywhere on the frontlines in Southeast Ukraine. It appears they’ll be encircling Sloviansk within the coming weeks barring a turn of events.

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You then got called out routinely about why that isn't the case and you were wishcasting/being overly optimistic about Russia doing this. But somehow this whole board are now liberals lime Ukraine are neo nazis

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This board got really angry when I simply pointed out that Russia was making advances in Donbas.

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Which would be fine if it was true but you then used that to state that it was proof Russian total victory was imminent and Kyiv was next.. which given your track record of awful predictions exposed you to ridicule. In reality, yes Russia has made some gains in Donbas while simultaneously getting trounced in Kharkiv.

Speculation about Putins upcoming operation in the linked twitter post, as well as talk about possible coup attempts during it, (read the posts below the first one)

LINK

Overall, on the topic of a coup in Russia, here is a good overview of the possibilities. The coming surgery will be interesting and may be a gauge of Putin's position at present.

For the TL/DR crowd, it's not going to happen any time soon. "[...] the [Russian] political system encourages the appointment of incompetent and loyal people – ones who are unlikely to organize a coup. The whole political system has been built in order to prevent a coup.”

Realistically, although the longer the war goes on, the higher the chances for a coup, it will take a combination of all participants to bring down Putin, not just one or two. That includes all of the below:

the Federal Security Service (FSB);
the Federal Protection Service (FSO);
the active oligarchs (Siloviki);
and adverse public opinion demonstrated by large and continued protests.

So the chances of a coup at this point are slim. However, as this war drags on, people in government and the military will be losing sleep over a well-established Russian practice -

“[Putin] will need a Great Terror to preserve his power,” Oreshkin added. ‘If there is a defeat in Ukraine, Putin will need to purge the elite.”

The more things change...

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Only posts praising Zelensky, Ukraine, and even the Biden Administration are supported on this forum. And of course, hating Trump is a fixture as well.

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lol

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Look at all that praise I'm heaping on the Biden administration right there.

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Now you know how I used to feel on the PT board

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FSB is in serious hot water, almost the entire leadership, middle managers have been demoted sidelined, jailed etc.

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Yes, they justifiably took the fall for the abject failure of the program to undermine the Ukrainian government pre-invasion and also for much of the following logistics/communications catastrophes. But Putin couldn't go NKVD on them (yet) as they still have many friends in high places.

Which is what worries Putin. So most of them are still breathing. How long they maintain this condition is anyone's guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if the death certificates listing "Suicide" as CoD are not already completed. Including ones for the 13-year old daughters...

However, canning most of senior management and about 40% of middle management of the FSB is not the way to prevent regime change. And there will be more. We will see the word 'purge' associated with the FSB more and more in the near future. The remaining members know this and know very well that just standing on the sidelines waiting to see what shakes out is not an option. They have to take a side and go all in and right now the Putin option is looking queasy.

The silovaki may be wobbling as well. They made their careers on being not stupid, calculating their odds correctly and most importantly, being proactive. So as the war goes on and the calculations change, they will be making hard decisions. Why? Again, let's remember that word - purge. They don't want to caught at home when the modern day Yagodas knock on their door.

I think the FSO is solidly behind Putin now and in the future. These are Putin's psychos picked for their blind loyalty. If/when a coup occurs, these guys will have to be taken out. They aren't going to be talked into anything.

The general public? Please. This is where the biggest difference between Russians and people of the West is evident - Russians have no social agency. They do what they are told no questions. Dynamite a block of flats in Belfast and you're dead, no matter who you are. Do it in Moscow? Eh, what a shame, but what can you do about it?

Nice breakdown.