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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:57 am to DabosDynasty
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:57 am to DabosDynasty
Ukraine going neutral and "demilitarizating" is basically just an invitation for Putin to come get the rest in 3 years
Might as well duke it out and wait for Putin to get offed
Might as well duke it out and wait for Putin to get offed
1
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:58 am to klrstix
quote:
Interesting... I think this is more favorable than Putin's initial terms...
It is literally his opening terms minus "denazification"
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:59 am to Enzos Tiny Pito
I didn’t see demilitarizing in the stated terms this time, but could have missed it. Agree if they remain, if not this is probably the best terms they’ll get. If demilitarization is included, yeah you gotta just go ahead and fight to the death or someone comes to help.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:02 am to IAmNERD
quote:The crazy part is that this is essentially in the Russians' back yard considering how close they are to their jumping off point. Maybe the rivers are preventing reinforcement and resupply?
'm amazed at how bad the Russians suck at holding objectives once captured.
Even if half the stories of Ukraine retaking stuff that had already been overrun are true, it shows how inept they really are.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:07 am to upgrayedd
quote:
Maybe the rivers are preventing reinforcement and resupply?
Cucumbers were known to drown to a man in the rivers during wwii. Doesn’t matter how many die, as long as the order is followed.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:08 am to upgrayedd
quote:
The crazy part is that this is essentially in the Russians' back yard considering how close they are to their jumping off point. Maybe the rivers are preventing reinforcement and resupply?
It's weird because for all the small scale Ukranian victories we see on YouTube where we're like "hmm, seems suspicious" it's obvious they are having some less documented (although we hear of it) but consistent success knocking out resupply and the like.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:11 am to Pettifogger
quote:
It's weird because for all the small scale Ukranian victories we see on YouTube where we're like "hmm, seems suspicious" it's obvious they are having some less documented (although we hear of it) but consistent success knocking out resupply and the like.
I'm curious what the Russian naval capabilities are in the area. Maybe they don't have much "brown water" capabilities. Seems like they could easily resupply and reinforce that area via sea/river.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:18 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Am I the only one who thinks these are pretty reasonable terms to start negotiation?
You could probably get them to soften on some of those issues. Seems like a win for Ukraine. But if they want to fight to the death then I’m not going to stop them.
If I was Ukraine I would agree to never join nato then quietly acquire nukes overnight like Israel did. That’s the only thing that will deter Putin.
Of the major points at issue, Russia has softened its stance on neutrality / demilitarization and "de-Nazification" whatever the hell that means. The demands for Crimea and the eastern republics remain the same.
Game theory suggests that Ukraine should keep pushing as hard as they can, and they will get continually better terms with each successive round. Russia strategically lost this war when they hadn't seized the capital and toppled the government within a week. Even if they take everything from the Dnieper east, they almost certainly can't hold onto it, and neither could a puppet government. Every successive day and week will continually bleed them both logistically on the ground and economically at home at a level that is unsustainable for them.
If I were Ukraine, I'd probably be ultimately willing to give up the eastern republics and Crimea but the neutrality clauses are a non-starter. Time is on their side now; they can wait out the Russians, and they know and the Russians know it.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 9:22 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:34 am to upgrayedd
quote:
The crazy part is that this is essentially in the Russians' back yard considering how close they are to their jumping off point. Maybe the rivers are preventing reinforcement and resupply?
I read an article or watched a video that hypothesizes the reason Russia is having such logistical troubles is due to the miltary's reliance on railroads. The military basically owns all railways in Russia and has something like 10% of their military manpower dedicated to the railways in some form or fashion. That's why they're able to mobilize and build up at the border so much equipment so fast and efficient.
But once they reach the borders, those railways are no longer under Russian military control. The story also stated that the Ukrainians had done a good job of sabotaging key rail entry points into the country. Not sure if that's true, but it would seem obvious. But since they can't rely on the rails to transport equipment past their own border, they switch from railways to trucks and they simply don't have enough. Picture those GRAD or TOS rocket launchers: each projectile has to have its own truck to bring one rocket to the launcher. So that's 20 or 30 trucks for one weapons system. That's why we are seeing these long convoys in Ukraine because they're basically having to use the roads and convoys as trains and that's obviously a lot less efficient.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 9:35 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:36 am to AbuTheMonkey
Well stated Abu.
I would ask for SOME kind of security guarantee (from USA, UK, France and Germany but not all of NATO?).
And I would push for admission into the European Union.
I would ask for SOME kind of security guarantee (from USA, UK, France and Germany but not all of NATO?).
And I would push for admission into the European Union.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:46 am to IAmNERD
quote:
each projectile has to have its own truck to bring one rocket to the launcher. So that's 20 or 30 trucks for one weapons system.
Is that true? I have zero knowledge of Russian rocket systems, but poking around it looks like the truck fitted Grad (40 tubes) is paired with the 9T254 which can transport 60 rockets.
If there is a situation like you read though, that would explain a lot.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:48 am to Eurocat
Reminds me of the Sochi Olympics.
Russia saw it as their chance to impress the world, they spent $50 million, but when everybody showed up for the games the place was an unfinished mess.
Russia saw it as their chance to impress the world, they spent $50 million, but when everybody showed up for the games the place was an unfinished mess.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:51 am to Enzos Tiny Pito
quote:
It is literally his opening terms minus "denazification"
ok.. my point ultimately is if he has moved any on his terms then I can only interpret that as the negotiating environment ( as in progress of the war, sanctions, internal pressure, ect.. ) is changing for him..
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:53 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Is that true? I have zero knowledge of Russian rocket systems, but poking around it looks like the truck fitted Grad (40 tubes) is paired with the 9T254 which can transport 60 rockets.
Could be. I'm not certain. Maybe it was a different system, but I remember it being a video now and it showed them lifting a tube off the back of one of their trucks with a small crane beside (may have even been attached to the launching system itself) the launcher. It may have been a different system because the tube looked way bigger than what I had imagined a TOS rocket to be. Whatever it was they said had 20 tubes not 40 so idk.
ETA: I found the video I watched if you have 20 minutes to spare sometime. It's a pretty deep dive on how they use their railroads for the military and why it doesn't work beyond their own border. It's called "The Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine".
YouTube
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 10:02 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:00 am to IAmNERD
quote:
I read an article or watched a video that hypothesizes the reason Russia is having such logistical troubles is due to the miltary's reliance on railroads. The military basically owns all railways in Russia and has something like 10% of their military manpower dedicated to the railways in some form or fashion. That's why they're able to mobilize and build up at the border so much equipment so fast and efficient. But once they reach the borders, those railways are no longer under Russian military control. The story also stated that the Ukrainians had done a good job of sabotaging key rail entry points into the country. Not sure if that's true, but it would seem obvious. But since they can't rely on the rails to transport equipment past their own border, they switch from railways to trucks and they simply don't have enough. Picture those GRAD or TOS rocket launchers: each projectile has to have its own truck to bring one rocket to the launcher. So that's 20 or 30 trucks for one weapons system. That's why we are seeing these long convoys in Ukraine because they're basically having to use the roads and convoys as trains and that's obviously a lot less efficient.
Ironically was the Nazis issue as well because at least at the time( and might be true today still) the Russian tracks were wider then the German ones so they had to lay completely new ones when they advanced
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:00 am to IAmNERD
quote:
Maybe it was a different system, but I remember it being a video now and it showed them lifting a tube off the back of one of their trucks with a small crane beside (may have even been attached to the launching system itself) the launcher.
Sounds like the S-400 air to air system?
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:03 am to Eurocat
quote:Ukraine received security assurances against threats to its borders/ political independence after giving up those Nukes in 1994. How's that working out? Just give up your territory today , change your Constitution at gunpoint & get more guarantees to your independence/ sovereignty next time. We promise.
I would ask for SOME kind of security guarantee (from USA, UK, France and Germany but not all of NATO?).
And I would push for admission into the European Union.
If Ukraine isn't confident that they can hold off the Russians maybe concede the territory, agree not to join a military pact like NATO (for now) , but keep open the possibility of joining the EU.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 10:07 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:06 am to Lonnie Utah
Yeah those look like the tubes they were lifting off the truck, but I thought they launcher had more tubes. Idk, I could be getting something mixed up with something else I read at a different time. But I posted a link to the video and it does a good job explaining some of their logistics problems and how it ties into their use of railroads.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:06 am to sugar71
quote:
Kurt Volker, former U.S. envoy to Ukraine, said on Sunday that the Russian invasion will not end through negotiations, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "bent" on destroying the country.
"Face the Nation" host Margaret Brennan asked Volker on CBS if he could see any countries being able to negotiate an end to Russia's attack on Ukraine.
"Not at all. No, we have to understand that Putin is bent on a military victory. He wants to destroy Ukraine, decapitate the leadership. He doesn't care about how many casualties this causes, what happens to the civilian population. This is a messianic mission that he is on. This is why he has to be stopped," said Volker.
MSN
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 10:08 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:08 am to upgrayedd
quote:
Would you prefer she use it as a reason to send in 100k American troops?
I'd prefer for her to stop being a mouthpiece for people like Putin and Assad.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 10:09 am
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