re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

Maybe Russian “regulars” already stole them

---

After raping the women, men and dogs.

quote:

---

If negotiations are the only path to the end, now Ukraine has Russian land to exchange for Ukrainian land.

---

No,

It will probably take a couple of weeks at minimum, the balance of forces in Kursk is around 1:1 right now, but the Russians will annihilate these units and push back over the border into Sumy. The Russian advantage in drones, artillery, and air power will do that.

The Ukrainians did something interesting, they accepted that they were losing the battle of attrition in the Donbas, and gambled (likely everything they had available) on an attack on Kursk. They pulled units from the Donbas for this operation. And they preempted the Russians who were preparing to go over the border themselves.

But the operation doesn’t change the outcome of the war, although it may accelerate its end slightly, the Russians strongly support the war, and the Russian advantage in men and material remains. The attack will have three outcomes, it will further harden the Russian population, see Medvedev’s comments, and it exposes a large number of Ukrainian soldiers and importantly heavy weapons, to destruction at a faster rate. The third is clear from the television clip of Gerasimov and Putin, Putin was very unhappy with him, the Russians saw this coming (there was a big uptitck in airstrikes in Sumy preceding the attack) but they didn’t stop the Ukrainians at the border, and Gerasimov will probably get himself promoted out of his position as a consequence.

Because this is Russian soil the Russian could use conscripts here, which will further increase their manpower advantage, and because it’s Kursk. There’s no political price to pay.

quote:

---

the balance of forces in Kursk is around 1:1 right now

---

ROFL. If that were the case, then why is Ukraine taking control of additional villages as we speak?

You should really try to make your absurd fantasies a little bit more believable.

Reports that another Russian Su-34 has been shot down in Kursk. This really is t Russia’s week. Poor Putin. Maybe he will choke on a dick and this war will end.

quote:

---

So you say it’s 1:1. Ukraine just sliced through Russian forces using guys right off the contested front lines. So how are they still holding Russian forced on the front lines and how are they knifing deeper into Russia all at the same time?

---

The Ukrainians initially had a local advantage in manpower in Kursk, although that’s now equalized. So that’s part of it. The other is, they had DRGs ranging through Kursk creating chaos and the impression of a much deeper penetration. It’s what they did around Lyman in 22. The idea would be to create panic, and Russians would start falling back for fear of being surrounded, even if they weren’t

quote:

---

Lima Whiskey

---

I give you credit for your consistency.

Here is an alternative to your statement:

This attack by Ukraine was not hastily planned; they had been preparing for it for months. The units involved are the strongest and best-equipped in the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine purposely has let the Donbas area appear weak and allow Russia to make gains, and their goal was to suck Russia into this area. This worked; it's what's been happening for the last few months, and we've seen Russia make some gains. Had Ukraine committed that combat power to the Donbas instead, Russia would not have seen what little success it has obtained.

Ukraine launched a surprise attack on Kursk with all that combat power they have kept out of the Donbas against a very weak area of the Russian border. The Ukrainian attack appears to be very large and well-coordinated (I'm sure the US and NATO provided plenty of help in the planning). Russia is responding by pulling combat power out of the Donbas and moving it towards Kursk. This is exactly what Ukraine wants to happen because it takes advantage of all of Russia's weaknesses in operational warfare.

IF, which is a big IF, Ukraine can take Belgorad and a few other strategic transportation points; they can make resupplying for Russia very difficult.

I expect we'll see an attack on the Kerch bridge soon.

This could change the outcome of the war.

When is the last time something really went well for Russia in this war?

Nothing documented yet that I've seen.

With the limited numbers of F16's they have, I doubt we'll see them risk them over the front providing close air support.