re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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No idea what the real number is. But even if it’s half that, it’s still a quarter of a million.

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I wouldn’t doubt it, because we all know Russia doesn’t really care about casualties and as long as enough bodies are there to take the places of the dead or severely wounded. That’s why I don’t think this is going to workout for Ukraine, unless the US and others take off the restrictions of what Ukraine can do with the weapons the free world is giving them. No one wants escalation, but it just seems to me a country that was invaded should be able to hit Russian territory with the weapons everyone is providing.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

US President Joe Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukraine's European allies continue to announce their support for allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Senior Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are transferring forces to northern Kharkiv Oblast from other sectors of the frontline, indicating that the Russian military continues to prioritize efforts to draw and fix Ukrainian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

French officials reportedly may soon announce that France is sending military trainers to Ukraine.

Western countries continue efforts to increase artillery production and procurement for Ukraine.

NATO member states reportedly lack sufficient air defense capabilities to protect members of the Alliance in Central and Eastern Europe in the event of a full-scale attack.

The Russian government approved a package of amendments to the Russian tax code on May 30 that will introduce a progressive income tax scale starting in 2025, marginally placing some of the financial burdens of Russia's long-war effort in Ukraine onto Russia's wealthy elite.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued efforts to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis as part of the “Year of the Family” 2024 domestic policy initiative.

Russian peacekeepers in Moldova's Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria are reportedly conducting a month-long unauthorized inspection of their armored vehicles and may conduct further provocations in the coming months.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russia formed a new unnamed airborne (VDV) regiment based in occupied Crimea, which currently operates in the Zaporizhia direction.

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StormyMcMan

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Please don't bring facts into s Lima Whiskey post. His fantasy world is too fragile

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The Ukrainians started with a larger force, and they were rushing to get as many men under arms as possible. Training was limited and you didn't get a lot of it. It's a war of survival.

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IDK if your point is accurate at all and it ultimately doesn't matter, but it should be common knowledge that Ukraine has all hands on deck at the front and Russia doesn't. They have a large force, no doubt. But not their entire army.

SBU drones “shut down” Russia’s valuable radar in Crimea - source

Overnight Thursday, May 30, the Russians lost their Nebo-SVU long-range radar detection system worth nearly $100 million.

It was struck by a number of drones, developed by SBU’s military counter-intelligence units, sources say.

The interlocutor reported that the radar set up near Armyansk controlled a 380-km section of the front, ensuring the protection of enemy facilities on the territory of Crimea.

According to one source, after the attack by SBU drones, the space intelligence equipment recorded the shutdown of the radar signal and never recorded it since.

"This SBU special operation made the Russian air defense ‘blind’ on a large part of the front," he said.

Ukrinform

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What has happened with the Russian offensive in the north? When it kicked off a lot was made about it but lately it's been radio silence.

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Russia is building bases/staging areas in various spots close-ish to the front (not just in the north IIRC, but there too), either in anticipation of the lines crumbling or to start an actual offensive.

The 'villages' around Kharkiv that they were taking were sometimes small, like you think of when you hear the word "village", but sometimes there places were actually fairly large/important areas that are kind of like suburbs of Kharkiv I guess you'd say.

Russia doesn't have the force up there to actually take Kharkiv. So maybe the plan was to eventually take the surrounding area and cut off supplies, and then once the logistics depots/bases they are working on are operation to go in whole hog.

That seems to have been stymied for now, because Ukraine isn't just going to give up one of their largest cities that easily to a fairly telegraphed plan.

Ukraine is now either mostly holding ground or taking some back, depending on who you ask.

The recent authorization to strike into Russia near Kharkiv is directly related to stopping this plan, because if Russia did take Kharkiv it would be an absolute field day for their army and it could collapse the entire front depending on what Russia did from there. This seems like an existential battle within the existential war.

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As I outlined in detail a few pages back, the long-term strategic outook is very different.

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If your several assumptions are correct.

Take with your typical rybar amount of salt, but looks like there was a successful POW exchange

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What about western governments changing their previously hardline stances on striking inside Russia points to things going well for Ukraine?

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It's called boiling a frog. And for all their frickups, foreign and domestic, the Biden administration has done a damn good job with this. Russia keeps thinking it needs to go in just a little bit deeper...and then the West counters. And so Russia moves in a little bit deeper, etc.

Reminds me of Gen Harry Heth reporting to RE Lee on the first day at Gettysburg:

"I don't know what else I could have done....one moment it's just a minor scrap with some local militia. Next thing I know, I'm tangling with half the Union army."

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Do you think Russia is winning? How? What does a Russian victory look like? When do you expect it?

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yes. yes. yes. yes.