re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What has happened with the Russian offensive in the north? When it kicked off a lot was made about it but lately it's been radio silence.

I am assuming either stalemate or Russian advancements because had Ukraine pushed them back I think it would have been publicized.

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The Ukrainians had to pull units from other places along the front and send them to Kharkov to deal with the Russians. And it appears they sent a number of brigades that were being reconstituted as well. Which is bad.

The Russians are making small gains in the places where the Ukrainians pulled those men. The line is weaker now. The Ukrainian units in the north also got chewed up, especially in the first couple of days.

Zelensky said yesterday (?) that the Russians are going to come over the border again, to the west of their current position, and attack Zolochev, which is North West of Kharkov.

The Russians are still trying to break the Ukrainians through attrition. They're making the front line longer, which is hard for Kiev, they increasingly just don't have the men, and they're forcing the Ukranians to defend the ground in places that aren't favorable to them. The supply situation here also favors the Russians, while it's not easy for Kiev. Forcing Kiev to shuffle units around to put out fires, also exposes those units to destruction.

I would love to see it moved to the Poliboard and pinned. That would be interesting and entertaining.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

US and German officials confirmed that the United States and Germany have changed their policies to allow Ukraine to use US- and German-provided weapons to strike Russian territory with some restrictions but did not offer precise details about these restrictions.

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against a Russian long-range radar system in occupied Crimea and an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on May 31 following the May 30 Ukrainian strike against the Kerch Strait ferry crossing.

Ukraine signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Sweden, Iceland, and Norway on May 31.

Russia's continued efforts to rally Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member countries around an imagined confrontation with the West likely stems from Russian concerns about the CSTO's longevity as a vector for Russian influence.

Although Russian forces made significant tactical gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast in early May 2024, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov heavily overestimated Russian advances in Ukraine since the start of 2024.

Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on May 31, the first POW exchange since February 8.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced on May 31 that it will not join the June 2024 Ukraine peace summit.

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

Russian State Duma Information Policy Committee Chairperson Alexander Khinshtein announced on May 30 that he and Duma Security Committee Chairperson Vasily Piskarev submitted a bill for the Duma's consideration that would eliminate toll fees for Russian military, Rosgvardia, and Federal Security Service (FSB) vehicles.

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As some people know I used to have access to data on widows pensions, permanent disability pensions and rough numbers of missing. Last time I spoke to a person that knew, added up the three numbers were approaching 375k-this was three and a half months ago. The reluctance to identify and recover adds approximately 40k to the numbers I was told. I was also told it was in Russia’s best interests to downplay any real numbers.

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It clear the Russian objective is to stretch Ukraine’s army to its breaking point. As Russian attacks continue to spread to different sectors of the front, this forces Ukraine to deploy more and more of its dwindling reserves to the front where those reserves then be attritted. Basically, Russia’s aim is to “bleed them white”.

And, at least right now, it appears to be working.

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Working? It's become a strategic disaster for Russia. Russia's escalation in Kharkiv has now resulted in Ukraine gaining the ability to strike targets in Russia, endangering many Russian military installations that were otherwise safe.

And Russia has been bleeding itself out in the Kharkiv region, not Ukraine.

Read Professor O'Brien for the argument spelled out in more detail.

ROGERS, MCCAUL, TURNER RELEASE STATEMENT ON BIDEN ADMIN’S UKRAINE HALF-MEASURE

May 31, 2024
Press Release

Washington, D.C. – After weeks of sustained Congressional, international, and public pressure, the Biden administration partially reversed its policy to prohibit Ukraine from using U.S.-provided weapons against legitimate military targets in Russian territory. According to these reports, Ukraine will now be permitted to use certain U.S.-provided weapons in limited areas within Russia which neighbor Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast in light of Russia’s ongoing offensive there. However, Ukraine is still prohibited from using U.S.-supplied ATACMs to strike legitimate targets deeper in Russian territory. In response, U.S. Representatives Mike Rogers (R-AL), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Michael McCaul (R-TX), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Mike Turner (R-OH), Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, released the following statement:

“This decision should have been made before Russia’s recent offensive in Kharkiv, not after. Instead, the Biden administration’s continued handwringing crippled Ukraine’s response, forcing them to stand idly by and watch Russian forces prepare for an imminent attack just across its border. Moreover, by leaking to the press that the policy reversal only applies to certain U.S.-provided weapons in a limited area within Russia, the administration has telegraphed to Russia exactly how to effectively adapt to this change in policy, thereby decreasing the military effectiveness of the decision. To win this war of self-defense against Russia’s aggression, Ukraine must be allowed to use U.S.-provided weapons against any legitimate military targets in Russia, not just along the border near Kharkiv. Once again, President Biden’s policy of slow walking and half-measures is dragging out this conflict without providing Ukraine with a decisive advantage on the battlefield to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table as soon as possible.”

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Just gonna share this picture as I think it's pretty telling about all the advances we've seen in the daily updates

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This looks like WWI playing out 100+ years later. What a debacle for all involved. And it’s disgusting to think about all the destroyed human lives. Our decision to meddle in that part of the world sure hasn’t aged well.

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The funny thing about that map is if you think Russia is actually trying to gain a lot of ground right now (they aren’t) you’ll think they are being stymied. If you think they are just trying to extend and pressure the front, this backs that up as well.

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Yes, this is what’s happening. Russian attacks have had very limited success. Ukraine appears to be successfully blocking any significant gains.

The pro Russian crowd will tell you that they are taking few casualties and Ukraine is getting worn down trying to defend the front.

The pro Ukraine side say it’s too early to tell what is going to happen, and that Russian losses are high since they are attacking. There is also the notion that the Russian economy can’t keep this up.

I think we all know that right now the front is pretty stable. Other than that no one really knows how good or bad the situation is for other side.

Imagine being so misinformed and detached from reality that you actually believe all this.