re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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aiting on confirmation, but this analysis of photos taken before and during the Crocus attack claims to show a number of Russian FSB agents in the theater's crowd before and during the attack.

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While I agree he looks similar to the guy, he's not wearing the same shirt, jeans, or watch. 3 guys in blue shirts and blue jeans out of a crowd of 6200 people isn't exactly surprising.

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They sat calmly and some locked doors to prevent members of the audience escaping.

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Did I miss their evidence of this?

Well the obvious candidates are India, South Korea, Pakistan and sub saharan Africa even for 122 mm soviet shells. South Korea has a lot of artillery because they have to with North Korea having millions stacked up all the way back to the end of the Korean war. They also can produce more and have the production capacity to replace them in time, they just have to technically stay out of it. Like the Ukrainian spokesman said, he doesn’t care where they came from just as long as they get them. Ukraine also still produces 122 mm shells itself but it’s not known what their capacity would be. I wouldn’t think it would be very much right now.

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Neptunes don't have the range to reach Sevastapol

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The latest land attack version may have a 400km range.

Ukraine's Neptune Missile Got an Overhaul: What Details the Strike on Konstantin Olshansky Landing Ship Reveals

Defense Express

I think this could be the new reworked Neptune. I highly doubt Russia would have one of its last landing ships anywhere near the Ukrainian mainland.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that the Crocus City Hall attackers originally fled toward Belarus not Ukraine, directly undermining the Kremlin narrative on Ukraine’s involvement, possibly to head off questions about why the attackers headed toward Belarus in the first place.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials appear to be struggling to maintain a consistent rhetorical line about the Crocus City Hall attack, indicating that the Kremlin has not fully figured out how to reconcile its information operations with the reality of its intelligence and law enforcement failure.

Russian officials are proposing actionable but likely impractical solutions to the emotional outcries for retribution in response to the Crocus City Hall attack.

The Moldovan Constitutional Court reversed a ruling banning the Kremlin-affiliated Shor Party on March 26, which will likely allow pro-Russian Moldovan actors to reconsolidate around the Shor Party and reverse the impacts of the previous Moldovan ban on the party.

Ukrainian officials stated on March 26 that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted a strike on the night of March 23 to 24 against a Ukrainian ship that Russian forces had captured in 2014.

Separate investigations conducted by Western media outlets have found that Russian forces may be using Starlink terminals in Ukraine.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut on March 26.

The Russian military has reportedly started recruiting personnel for elements of the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD).

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all you needed was nazis and one mention of the Obamas and I would have had bingo

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Cool. Tell that joke to hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukranian men that died in a war that could have been been drastically shortened if the "West" had actually fought for for peace in lieu of pushing for indefinite money laundering opportunities.

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hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukranian men that died in a war that could have been been avoided if Putin hadnt started it

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Fixed it for you


Also, the most disingenuous argument of this entire misadventure is that we can shorten the war and reduce suffering by forcing Ukraine to roll over and surrender.

Anyone who thinks Russia would just stop at Ukraine has never taken a high school history class

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 March 2024

On 20 March 2024, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu announced the formation of the Dnipro River Flotilla and a boat brigade. This new formation will likely be responsible for securing the Dnipro waterways and islands that separate Russian and Ukrainian controlled Kherson. It is a realistic possibility the Dnipro Flotilla will be subordinate to the Dnipro Group of Forces, which combined the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro Group of Forces in February 2024.

Russia likely wants to prevent and deny Ukrainian cross river operations, such as the operation to establish and maintain the Krynky bridgehead. Russian and Ukrainian forces have both lost large numbers of personnel and equipment in exchanges on Krynky. On 17 March 2024, Ukrainian forces in Krynky reported repelling the 810th Guards Russian Naval Infantry Brigade in the area.

It is likely this formation will decouple river patrolling functions from the Black Sea Fleet, whilst the Black Sea Fleet is operating further afield in the eastern Black Sea. The Dnipro Flotilla will likely be vulnerable to Ukrainian uncrewed surface vehicles which have been effective in destroying Russian vessels operating in the Black Sea.

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Cool. Tell that joke to hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukranian men that died in a war that could have been been drastically shortened if the "West" had actually fought for for peace in lieu of pushing for indefinite money laundering opportunities.

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Couldn’t you say that about every war? If only the country being attacked could have just surrendered and not fought back thousands of lives could have been saved.

Maybe we should have surrendered after Pearl? Maybe Russia could have surrendered to the Germans when Barbarossa began?

But you pro Putin crazies make all kinds of excuses for your guy. He wasn’t forced into taking Crimea and later the rest of Ukraine. He only did that because he thought he could do it on the cheap.

Guess what? He was wrong.

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They currently have a relatively small operation making 152mm shells for their legacy Soviet artillery. They are making a lot more mortar shells, which is a huge need for them (but doesn't get the level of discussion that the artillery shortage gets). They have a 155mm plant under construction that will come online "sometime in the 2nd half of this year."

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They have also contracted with a unnamed former Warsaw Pact country to produce 152 mm shells. It is likely Poland but for obvious security they are not disclosing it.