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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:31 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:31 pm to GOP_Tiger
The IL-22 is swiss cheese history. There’s 0.0000000% chance that aircraft ever lifts off the ground again unless it’s a crane at the scrapyard. Way too much damage to control surfaces and it even took damage to other areas of the fuselage and injured several crew as the pilots requested medical be waiting. Here in the U.S. all emergency services at the airport scramble to an aircraft in distress unless the flight crew otherwise deem it unnecessary. In Russia with how they have operated a pilot declaring an emergency might have a couple babushka’s there at the end of the runway to give them a shot of vodka if they lived. The Russians truly have to be either drunk all the time or just the dumbest group of motherfrickers on earth to shoot down two surveillance aircraft making predetermined routes at predetermined times so Russian ATC as well as air defense should have been easily on the same page for something like this. These aren’t fighters flying near the front low and fast. These are big, slow aircraft well well behind the lines making big slow loops on their own side at high altitude. Somebody really fricked up and is headed to the gulag or front line. They would probably choose the gulag.
This post was edited on 1/15/24 at 11:33 pm
1
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:48 pm to LSUPilot07
And I'm sure Ukraine can map out where the missiles came from (if it was friendly fire) and take out they anti air battery that fired them.
The ineptness shown by Russia since 2022 is really quite staggering.
The ineptness shown by Russia since 2022 is really quite staggering.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 12:34 am to LSU7096
Posted on 1/16/24 at 1:28 am to SirWinston
I’m just checking in to see if Sweden joined NATO yet
Posted on 1/16/24 at 4:58 am to TigerOnTheMountain
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 January 2024
Over the last week, neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have taken any significant ground. Despite progress in late December 2023 in capturing Marinka, Russia has been unable to capitalise and advance either westwards towards Kurakhove or south towards Novomykhalivka.
The encirclement of Avdiivka likely remains Russia's key line of effort; however, to date Russia has made very limited territorial gains at a significant cost in both materiel and personnel. The northern town Stepove remains under Ukrainian control which secures access to the Avdiivka supply route. Russian attempts to isolate the town are unlikely for at least the next week.
Ukrainian marines continue to maintain their bridgehead at Krynky on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, despite Russian attempts to dislodge them. They will highly likely continue to contest this territory for the next week.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 January 2024
Over the last week, neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have taken any significant ground. Despite progress in late December 2023 in capturing Marinka, Russia has been unable to capitalise and advance either westwards towards Kurakhove or south towards Novomykhalivka.
The encirclement of Avdiivka likely remains Russia's key line of effort; however, to date Russia has made very limited territorial gains at a significant cost in both materiel and personnel. The northern town Stepove remains under Ukrainian control which secures access to the Avdiivka supply route. Russian attempts to isolate the town are unlikely for at least the next week.
Ukrainian marines continue to maintain their bridgehead at Krynky on the eastern bank of the Dnipro, despite Russian attempts to dislodge them. They will highly likely continue to contest this territory for the next week.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 6:27 am to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
I’m just checking in to see if Sweden joined NATO yet
Putin's fat bitch who owns Tucker's daddy says no.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 7:51 am to CitizenK
Jan 15 ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and severely damaged an Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
A senior Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, which is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are able to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
Skibitskyi indicated that international sanctions are constraining Russian missile and drone production as Russian forces likely continue to adapt their missile and drone strike packages in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
German outlet BILD reported on classified German documents describing a hypothetical scenario to prepare for a possible future conflict between NATO and Russia. Developing such scenarios, which are usually classified, is a normal task for professional military staffs.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Switzerland on January 15 to discuss aspects of the Ukrainian peace plan and support for Ukraine with global leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum from January 15 to 19.
A North Korean delegation including North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Song Hui arrived in Moscow on January 14 for an official state visit to Russia on January 15 to 17.
Russia and Iran are preparing to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to further develop Russian-Iranian military-technological cooperation.
The Kremlin is intensifying censorship measures to limit criticism of the Russian war effort in Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.
Russian forces made confirmed advances west of Donetsk City and near Krynky amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact.
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is reportedly forming a women’s drone operating detachment.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Ukrainian resistance forces detonated a Russian military UAZ Patriot vehicle in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, injuring four Russian personnel and killing an unspecified number of personnel.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 4:39 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a press conference that France will send another 40 SCALP-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, “hundreds of bombs” of an undisclosed type will be added as well.
LINK
Posted on 1/16/24 at 5:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
After this is all over and the dust has settled, it's gonna be a strange world. I would imagine Russia is not gonna want to deal with those who went all in for Ukraine.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 7:21 pm to ticklechain
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to demonstrate that Russia is not interested in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith and that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine – which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender – remain unchanged.
Russian President Vladimir Putin notably amplified a longstanding Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated the importance of defeating Russia in Ukraine at the Davos World Economic Forum on January 16.
Russian tactical aviation operations are reportedly decreasing near the Sea of Azov, and Russian aviation capabilities may be degraded after Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and caused severe damage to a Russian Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
At least two state-owned Chinese banks reportedly ordered reviews of their business with Russian clients and will sever ties with sanctioned Russian entities and entities with ties to the Russian defense industry.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui for North Korea’s support for Russia in the war during Choe’s official state visit to Moscow on January 16.
The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on its second reading to digitalize Ukrainian military records on January 16.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut as positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
Russian State Duma deputies from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) proposed a bill on January 16 that would create a legal status for volunteers of the Russian war in Ukraine that would grant them compensation in case of injury or death.
Russian occupation officials from occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts attended a meeting of Russian municipal representatives in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 16.
Posted on 1/16/24 at 9:40 pm to StormyMcMan
Is this what winning looks like?
quote:
Authorities in Ukraine's northeast region of Kharkiv on Tuesday urged residents of more than two dozen villages near the front line to evacuate
Posted on 1/16/24 at 11:27 pm to trinidadtiger
I would say it is what a war zone looks like
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:44 am to ticklechain
I think the feeling is already mutual.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:06 am to Hateradedrink
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 January 2024
On 14 January 2024, a Russian A-50 MAINSTAY, an Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, almost certainly exploded and subsequently crashed into the western Sea of Azov. Concurrently, a Russian IL-22M COOT B aircraft was reported damaged but landed in a nearby Russian airfield. As of 15 January 2024, Ukrainian Commander in Chief, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, claimed responsibility for the loss of the A-50 and damage to the COOT B.
The possible successful targeting of an A-50 MAINSTAY by Ukraine is significant. It is likely that Russia will now be forced to reconsider limiting the operational areas of its aircraft. The A-50 is critical to the Russian air surveillance picture over the battlespace.
The Russian Air Force possesses eight A-50 airframes which can likely cover the immediate operational impact. However, the increased stress on the remaining airframes coupled with the loss of the crew will likely constrain longer term mission sustainability.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 January 2024
On 14 January 2024, a Russian A-50 MAINSTAY, an Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, almost certainly exploded and subsequently crashed into the western Sea of Azov. Concurrently, a Russian IL-22M COOT B aircraft was reported damaged but landed in a nearby Russian airfield. As of 15 January 2024, Ukrainian Commander in Chief, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, claimed responsibility for the loss of the A-50 and damage to the COOT B.
The possible successful targeting of an A-50 MAINSTAY by Ukraine is significant. It is likely that Russia will now be forced to reconsider limiting the operational areas of its aircraft. The A-50 is critical to the Russian air surveillance picture over the battlespace.
The Russian Air Force possesses eight A-50 airframes which can likely cover the immediate operational impact. However, the increased stress on the remaining airframes coupled with the loss of the crew will likely constrain longer term mission sustainability.
This post was edited on 1/17/24 at 8:06 am
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:19 am to Hateradedrink
Interesting theory: LINK
The idea is that Ukraine knew that Russia would respond that way, and so they moved a Patriot system right up to the front line in response. To protect the Patriot, they could've used other radar systems to track the A-50 until it was time to fire.
quote:
If Cooper’s theory is correct, the Ukrainians set the trap on Saturday, when Ukrainian air force jets—presumably Sukhoi Su-24 bombers—struck Russian air force installations across the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. “A number of radars were knocked out,” Cooper reported.
The Saturday strikes, the latest in a long campaign of Ukrainian raids on Russian defenses in Crimea, suppressed the Russians’ ground-based radar coverage, leaving the surviving missile batteries on the peninsula partially blind—especially to the north, where the terrain could mask incoming Ukrainian planes, drones and missiles.
So Russian commanders did the obvious, but stupid, thing. They ordered one of their few remaining A-50U radar planes, which normally fly far to the south over the Sea of Azov, to push farther north in order to extend radar coverage over most of Crimea. An A-50’s rotating radar can see airplane-size targets nearly 200 miles away.
The idea is that Ukraine knew that Russia would respond that way, and so they moved a Patriot system right up to the front line in response. To protect the Patriot, they could've used other radar systems to track the A-50 until it was time to fire.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
To protect the Patriot, they could've used other radar systems to track the A-50 until it was time to fire.
I bet there was some puckered vinyl in that A-50 when that Patriot battery radar first flipped on.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:41 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Is this what winning looks like?
Who said that either side is winning?
Your standard lines are worn out.
It’s a stalemate.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 9:03 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/17/24 at 9:38 am to doubleb
quote:
Who said that either side is winning?
Your standard lines are worn out.
It’s a stalemate.
It is a stalemate, but let's review each side's objectives:
Russia:
- Conquer all of Ukraine (maximalist)
- Conquer the Donbas region/secure Crimea, disarm Ukraine (minimum)
So far: failed on all fronts
Ukraine:
- Retake all lands from 2014, join NATO/EU (maximalist)
- Survive (minimum)
So far: surviving
Pro-Russian crowd sees Russia doing painfully stupid things each and every day, ignore that and laugh because "Ukraine can't push Russia off its land."
Meanwhile, there is a massive egg shortage in Russia. There's a lingering gas/disel crisis in Russia. Millions of Russians are freezing due to power-outages and heater failures.
That's what winning looks like!Posted on 1/17/24 at 10:09 am to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
I’m just checking in to see if Sweden joined NATO yet
Not yet. Currently waiting on Turkey's parliament to ratify. Erdogwan has agreed to it and the parliament's committees have agreed to it. They just have not held the formal vote.
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