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2
Posted on 1/17/24 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
Also,
Le Monde reports that on Tuesday French President Emanuel Macron announced sending "several hundred" AASM HAMMER powered gliding bombs to Ukraine (in addition to 40 SCALP missiles).
Le Monde reports that on Tuesday French President Emanuel Macron announced sending "several hundred" AASM HAMMER powered gliding bombs to Ukraine (in addition to 40 SCALP missiles).
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
Looks like that Trump thing in Iowa might be waking Macron and the Frenchies up. I have been watching European programs for a couple of days and they are panicked at the thought of Trump winning. Get rid of their social welfare programs and start spending on defense or start learning Russian.
This post was edited on 1/17/24 at 5:44 pm
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:46 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
I’m just checking in to see if Sweden joined NATO yet
And when they do, then what?
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:47 pm to crazy4lsu
Isn't Orban now blocking them or threatening to.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 5:51 pm to AU86
Both Hungary and Turkey reaffirmed their commitment to Swedish ascension to NATO in November of 2023. All that remains is ratification by their respective parliaments.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 6:02 pm to crazy4lsu
They must be feeling pretty confident. I heard last week that they were planning on deploying troops to Estonia.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 6:04 pm to AU86
Military integration has continued since they first applied in 2022. Everything else is just politics.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 6:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Military integration has continued since they first applied in 2022. Everything else is just politics.
Military integration and meeting NATO standardization is a requirement of membership. Certain boxes need to be checked prior to admittance.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:24 pm to Scuttle But
Looks like things are heating up on the Iran Pakistan border. Not where I would have guessed a spillover to happen, but there it is.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:28 pm to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:remember when you said finland didnt want to join NATO
I’m just checking in to see if Sweden joined NATO yet
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:37 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
A Ukrainian intelligence official reported that Russian forces lack the necessary operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensive efforts in more than one direction in Ukraine.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reiterated on January 17 that the elimination of Ukrainian statehood and independence remains one of Russia’s core war aims.
Ukraine successfully employed a Ukrainian-refurbished hybrid air defense system (FrankenSAM) for the first time.
Germany and France announced additional military assistance to Ukraine on January 16.
The Russian ultranationalist community will likely concretize xenophobia and insecurities about Russia’s ethnic composition as key shared principles within the community in 2024, as Russian ultranationalists continue to seize on incidents involving migrants and non-ethnic Russian groups to call for anti-migrant policies and express growing hostility towards non-ethnic Russians in Russia.
The Kremlin’s ongoing attempt to court the Russian ultranationalist community will likely generate increasing friction between the Kremlin’s desired rhetoric and policies concerning migration and interethnic relations and those of Russian ultranationalists.
Significant protests erupted in Baymak, Bashkortostan Republic, following a Russian court’s guilty verdict for a prominent Bashkort activist, prompting a swift Russian government response as well as backlash from the Russian ultranationalist community.
Widespread Russian milblogger complaints about an Uzbek community leader in Russia prompted the Russian Investigative Committee to open a criminal investigation, suggesting that the Russian government may feel increasing pressure to respond to milblogger demands as the ultranationalist information space coalesces around xenophobic and anti-migrant ideals.
The Russian military command continues to convict Russian officers in cases associated with Ukrainian strikes as part of a likely effort to improve discipline across the Russian military.
The Kremlin continues efforts to expand Russia’s influence in Africa through the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the MoD-controlled Africa Corps.
The threat of US secondary sanctions is reportedly having a large-scale effect on Turkish-Russian financial ties.
Positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact on January 17.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov confirmed that Russian authorities are increasing the size of the Rosgvardia contingent in occupied Ukraine to strengthen occupational control.
Posted on 1/17/24 at 8:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Looks like things are heating up on the Iran Pakistan border. Not where I would have guessed a spillover to happen, but there it is.
Yeah I’ve been waiting on the response from Pakistan and it looks like it’s just happened. Don’t know either of the groups targeted, that said it looks like a tit for tat so hopefully it stops at that and Pakistan makes clear next time is war to deter it.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 7:23 am to DabosDynasty
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 January 2024
The Central Bank of Russia has increased its interest rate by 1 per cent to a new base rate of 16 per cent. This is the fifth increase since the current cycle of rises began in July 2023, when the base rate was set at 6.5 per cent.
The rise has been lower than previous ones. Russian inflation continued to accelerate towards the end of 2023, rising to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in November, up from 6.7 per cent in October. Overall, inflation for 2023 is estimated to be 7.4 per cent by Russia's statistics service, nearly double the Central Bank's target.
Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to negatively impact the outlook for the Russian economy. Imports have risen faster than exports, likely contributing to the rouble depreciating since the start of the war - highly likely a driver of inflation. As Russia ramps up its defence spending at the cost of other areas, the risk of the Russian economy overheating remains likely.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 January 2024
The Central Bank of Russia has increased its interest rate by 1 per cent to a new base rate of 16 per cent. This is the fifth increase since the current cycle of rises began in July 2023, when the base rate was set at 6.5 per cent.
The rise has been lower than previous ones. Russian inflation continued to accelerate towards the end of 2023, rising to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in November, up from 6.7 per cent in October. Overall, inflation for 2023 is estimated to be 7.4 per cent by Russia's statistics service, nearly double the Central Bank's target.
Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to negatively impact the outlook for the Russian economy. Imports have risen faster than exports, likely contributing to the rouble depreciating since the start of the war - highly likely a driver of inflation. As Russia ramps up its defence spending at the cost of other areas, the risk of the Russian economy overheating remains likely.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:13 am to cypher
quote:
4 The Central Bank of Russia has increased its interest rate by 1 per cent to a new base rate of 16 per cent.
quote:
The rise has been lower than previous ones. Russian inflation continued to accelerate towards the end of 2023, rising to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in November, up from 6.7 per cent in October. Overall, inflation for 2023 is estimated to be 7.4 per cent by Russia's statistics service, nearly double the Central Bank's target.
quote:
Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to negatively impact the outlook for the Russian economy. Imports have risen faster than exports, likely contributing to the rouble depreciating since the start of the war
More evidence of the booming Russian economy????
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:23 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
A Ukrainian intelligence official reported that Russian forces lack the necessary operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensive efforts in more than one direction in Ukraine.
quote:
Positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact on January 17.
How much longer can this stalemate hold before one side reaches exhaustion? One Insta account I follow gives daily updates on Russian losses. It claims Russia is losing between 700 men on slow days to over 1,000 men on high intensity days. I’m sure the numbers are somewhat exaggerated. But even if they’re only half that number, Russia is losing almost 200,000 men yearly and we’re in like year three of this war. And I imagine Ukrainian’s losses have to be similar. And neither side is getting anywhere. It’s just a stagnant meat grinder being fed daily for no appreciable benefit to either side. How long can either side keep this up?
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:43 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
How much longer can this stalemate hold before one side reaches exhaustion? One Insta account I follow gives daily updates on Russian losses. It claims Russia is losing between 700 men on slow days to over 1,000 men on high intensity days. I’m sure the numbers are somewhat exaggerated. But even if they’re only half that number, Russia is losing almost 200,000 men yearly and we’re in like year three of this war. And I imagine Ukrainian’s losses have to be similar. And neither side is getting anywhere. It’s just a stagnant meat grinder being fed daily for no appreciable benefit to either side. How long can either side keep this up?
Seems like barring a change in the tech and equipment gap, or use of nukes (don’t see this happening) it would favor the side with the most men, which is Russia. With more hotspots developing around the globe (israel, Red Sea, South China Sea, now a tit for tat between Iran and Pakistan) western aid seems to logically have an expiration at some point soon. The failure was in part, but not all of it, not supplying Ukraine to the point they could truly push back in the first 18 months and be able to threaten territorial Russia to get to the peace table. Time was never Ukraines favor. We discussed early on, I could be wrong but I believe to your credit this was one of your own inputs among others too.
I saw something the other day where Zelensky had supposedly asked Switzerland to try to broker a peace deal, but haven’t validated. Could be crap.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:54 am to Darth_Vader
The war started in 2014. The war escalated in Feb of 22.
It’s either in the tenth year or second year depending on how you look at it,
Contrast that with the Korean conflict.
It’s either in the tenth year or second year depending on how you look at it,
Contrast that with the Korean conflict.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:05 am to doubleb
Saint Petersburg attacked by drones
Russian port facilities in St. Petersburg were attacked by unspecified strike drones.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported on this.
According to the Ministry, on the night of January 18, at about 1:30 a.m., Russian air defense intercepted a fixed-wing drone in the Leningrad Region.
Ukrainska Pravda, citing its sources in the special services, reported that the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine was behind the attack on the Russian infrastructure facility.
“This is a DI operation which involved modern Ukrainian systems. Information continues to be collected, and there are confirmed hits on the targets. From now on, the military facilities of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region are within the range of Ukrainian forces,” the source stated.
When asked whether it was the first time Ukrainian drones attacked the Leningrad region of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainska Pravda’s source replied that “not for the first time, but this time is different, and the enemy could feel it.”
It is worth noting that the Russian JSC «Petersburg Oil Terminal,» which was struck, is the largest Russian terminal for the transshipment of petroleum products in the Baltic region.
The object is located directly in St. Petersburg and is 900 kilometers from the closer Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian Military Portal
Russian port facilities in St. Petersburg were attacked by unspecified strike drones.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported on this.
According to the Ministry, on the night of January 18, at about 1:30 a.m., Russian air defense intercepted a fixed-wing drone in the Leningrad Region.
Ukrainska Pravda, citing its sources in the special services, reported that the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine was behind the attack on the Russian infrastructure facility.
“This is a DI operation which involved modern Ukrainian systems. Information continues to be collected, and there are confirmed hits on the targets. From now on, the military facilities of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region are within the range of Ukrainian forces,” the source stated.
When asked whether it was the first time Ukrainian drones attacked the Leningrad region of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainska Pravda’s source replied that “not for the first time, but this time is different, and the enemy could feel it.”
It is worth noting that the Russian JSC «Petersburg Oil Terminal,» which was struck, is the largest Russian terminal for the transshipment of petroleum products in the Baltic region.
The object is located directly in St. Petersburg and is 900 kilometers from the closer Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian Military Portal
Posted on 1/18/24 at 12:33 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Seems like barring a change in the tech and equipment gap, or use of nukes (don’t see this happening) it would favor the side with the most men, which is Russia.
I have to disagree.
The Russian state is deprived of eggs right now, do you really think the state can survive another 2-3 years of this? They have 7.5% inflation with 16% interest rates.
Time isn't on Russia's side. They can easily run out of money before Ukraine runs out of men.
And if the US does offer more support for Ukraine, Russia is in real trouble sooner rather than later.
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