re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Lots of Confusion from Ukrainian Sources regarding possibly Two Incidents which have occurred tonight over the Sea of Avov, with Initial Reports stating that Ukrainian Air Defenses had Downed a A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft as well as an Il-22 Signal-Intelligence Platform, however according to several Sources with the Russian Air Force a possible Friendly Fire Incident did occur with a Il-22 near Crimea and the Aircraft was able to Successful Land back at an Airfield, but that No Incident had occurred involving a A-50.

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Per Russian sources, Russian air defenses hit a Russian Air Force Il-22 SIGINT aircraft over the Sea of Azov/Black Sea area in a friendly fire incident, with the damaged aircraft managing to make it back to an airfield.

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From HUR's Vadym Skibitsky:
-Russia produced ~2 million 122mm/152mm artillery rounds in 2023 and received 1 million 122mm/152mm rounds from North Korea
-Russia produces ~115-130 "strategic" (>350km range) missiles per month
-~330-350 Shahed drones can be produced per month

He notes that actual production of Shaheds and missiles each month varies due to parts.
-Russia can produce 100-115 operational-tactical class of missiles (e.g. Kh-31, Kh-59) per month
-He says ~4% of Shahed drones fail to launch or explode immediately

He notes that actual production of Shaheds and missiles each month varies due to parts.
-Russia can produce 100-115 operational-tactical class of missiles (e.g. Kh-31, Kh-59) per month
-He says ~4% of Shahed drones fail to launch or explode immediately

Compared to last year, Russia's missile campaign this winter hasn't focused on energy infrastructure, but instead primarily on other infrastructure like Ukraine's defense industry and C2. He says Russia has started to use Shahed drones against military targets at the front.

He says ~1,000-1,100 Russians join the military every day, and they are used to replace losses and form reserve regiments. He doesn't specify what percentage of them come from mobilization or volunteers, but he says the salary is the key motivation for those volunteering.

He says former members of Wagner have signed contracts with different PMCs under the command of the Russian MoD or Rosgvardia in Ukraine or in Africa and the Middle East. He also says Iran hopes to receive Su-34 bombers from Russia.

He says almost 80% of the components Russia receives, especially for electronics, comes from China and that most of these aren't even produced in China. As a result, he says it isn't that much of a problem for Russia to find the necessary components

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There's increasing speculation that Ukraine could have pushed a Patriot system right up to the front line in order to get the range to shoot down these high-value targets.

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According to new data from the Russian government, about 54,200 Russians were diagnosed with alcohol dependence in 2022

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