re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Thisbwarbis basically over. The lines will stay where they are and no one will care. Ukraine isn't gettingbanythungbback and Russia isn't getting anymore

quote:

---

Thisbwarbis basically over. The lines will stay where they are and no one will care. Ukraine isn't gettingbanythungbback and Russia isn't getting anymore

---

I don’t disagree with the exception that the missile long game will continue.

quote:

---

Not yet. Still have more luxury cars, jets and vacation homes to buy. Next up, the USA gets to rebuild what we have helped destroy. Should be interesting watching all the resident military experts defend spending American tax dollars to rebuild Ukraini

---

It'll be as much fun seeing "military experts" as it is seeing you AML experts.

This is now a war of attrition unless NATO sends in troops to help Ukraine which it should have done from day one.

quote:

---

unless NATO sends in troops to help Ukraine which it should have done from day one.

---

No. frick you.

I have very near and dear family and friends who would have to go do the shooting. Do you?

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

A Ukrainian public opinion survey on Ukrainian attitudes towards the Ukrainian government and military indicates that Ukrainian society overwhelmingly supports Ukraine’s military and its leadership while experiencing tensions typical in a society fighting an existential defensive war.

A new independent poll from the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center (NORC) found that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains strong domestic support for his regime and his war in Ukraine, despite relatively poor economic conditions and living standards in Russia.

Russian ultranationalist vitriolic responses to gender integration in the Ukrainian military highlight Russia's ongoing shift towards a cultural-ideological worldview that seeks to restore rigid and traditional gender roles and exposes gaps between Russia and Ukraine's respective abilities to mobilize their own societies.

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Ukraine has a shortage of anti-aircraft guided missiles after several recent large Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.

Russian sources continue to complain about persistent command and communication problems that degrade Russian combat capability in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian sources are reviving longstanding calls for a large-scale Russian offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast to create a “buffer zone” with Belgorod Oblast despite the Russian military’s likely inability to conduct an operation to seize significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the near term.

Recent Kremlin and Russian media rhetoric aimed at threatening Moldova likely continues to embolden pro-Russian separatist leaders in Moldova to attempt to sow political instability and division in Moldova.

Bloomberg reported that officials from Ukraine, the Group of Seven (G7) countries, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other unspecified countries held a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 16 to build support for Ukrainian conditions to negotiate with Russia.

Russian forces made confirmed advances southwest of Donetsk City, and positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.

The Russian military is reportedly abusing Serbian nationals whom Russian officials have recruited to serve in Russian formations in Ukraine.

Russian occupation officials continue the systematic oppression of residents of occupied Crimea using law enforcement and administrative means.

---

quote:

---

This is now a war of attrition unless NATO sends in troops to help Ukraine which it should have done from day one.

---

Agreed on attrition, disagree on NATO troops.

Just keep supplying 155mm shells, barrels and let the Ukrainian counter-battery advantages keep blowing up Russian junk.

No more offensives until the Russians are trotting out the T55s more frequently.

quote:

---

Just keep supplying 155mm shells,

---

The issue here is that Russia has a stockpile of almost 4M shells and is anticipated to have production up to 2M shells (1 to 1.5M before the increase)

The collective West isn't producing close to that
The US was around 168k annually, ramping up to 1.2M by the end of 2025

quote:

---

Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.

The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.

Bush said the service now aims to boost its monthly production to 36,000 by March, 60,000 by September, 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025, and 100,000 by the end of calendar 2025 — two and half times more than Wormuth’s year-old goal.

---

The EU is between 400k and 700k annually

quote:

---

By February 2023, European production was at 300,000 rounds annually, according to Estonian defense officials. By November, capacity had risen again, though assessments differ. European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton suggested that Europe could now make some 400,000 rounds annually. Estonia’s Pevkur, speaking at a November media roundtable, put the figure between 600,000 and 700,000—and said it would reach one million rounds in 2024.

In March, the EU announced it would spend 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) to send one million 155mm shells to Ukraine within a year. The money is split between paying countries to send stockpiled shells to Ukraine and acquiring new shells from EU members and Norway under a joint procurement scheme.

But the EU will not meet its goal this year, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed recently. In September, Estonian defense official Kusti Salm said the plan would likely be fulfilled by mid-2024.

---

The West still needs to backfill their own inventories and top of trying to supply Ukriane. Ukraine has reduced their daily volley to around 2000 whereas Russia has increased to 10000 daily. Without looking at NK or Iran, Russia has almost 2 years of inventory to run through with that count

Basically the West production isn't where it needs to be to supply Ukraine with the rounds requested and probably won't be until 2025 at the earliest

This was just interesting from the article though

quote:

---

NATO, whose own procurement agency is also pursuing the acquisition of more 155mm rounds, is finding that prices have quadrupled. 

In October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from 2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60). 

For comparison, the U.S. currently pays $3,000 for its most modern shells, according to an Army spokesperson. That price includes the charge, fuze, and shell body. 

Unlike the U.S., European 155mm production is primarily in the hands of the commercial market. That means that European countries can incentivize production increases through purchases, but cannot order factories to invest in automation, double shifts, or build new plants, as the U.S. has. 

---

LINK

Poli Sci Prof in Poland tells me that German puppet masters regained control. He served as an officer in USMC in Lebanon and then NSA.