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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/10/24 at 7:57 am to CitizenK
Posted on 1/10/24 at 7:57 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 January 2024
Russia has accidentally discharged two aerial munitions on two separate occasions in the past week. Russia's Ministry of Defence stated that on 2 January 2024 one of their aircraft discharged a munition damaging nine residential properties in Petropavlovka, in Russia's Voronezh Oblast.
The second incident, on 8 January 2024, occurred with a discharge of a FAB-250 unguided munition over the village of Rubizhne, Lunhansk Oblast, in occupied Ukraine, and was confirmed by the pro-Russian head of the Luhansk People's Republic. Both instances were during Russian combat sorties.
Previously, on 20 April 2023 a Russian Su-34 aircraft also had an "abnormal discharge of aviation ammunition" over Belgorod city in Russia. Russia's continued propensity for munition accidents is likely exacerbated by inadequate training and crew fatigue, leading to poor execution of tactics during missions.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 January 2024
Russia has accidentally discharged two aerial munitions on two separate occasions in the past week. Russia's Ministry of Defence stated that on 2 January 2024 one of their aircraft discharged a munition damaging nine residential properties in Petropavlovka, in Russia's Voronezh Oblast.
The second incident, on 8 January 2024, occurred with a discharge of a FAB-250 unguided munition over the village of Rubizhne, Lunhansk Oblast, in occupied Ukraine, and was confirmed by the pro-Russian head of the Luhansk People's Republic. Both instances were during Russian combat sorties.
Previously, on 20 April 2023 a Russian Su-34 aircraft also had an "abnormal discharge of aviation ammunition" over Belgorod city in Russia. Russia's continued propensity for munition accidents is likely exacerbated by inadequate training and crew fatigue, leading to poor execution of tactics during missions.
This post was edited on 1/10/24 at 7:58 am
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Posted on 1/10/24 at 10:03 am to CitizenK
quote:
Poli Sci Prof in Poland tells me that German puppet masters regained control.
I don't care if Poland decides to buy 800 Leopard2s or Black Panthers2s as long as they continue to build up their forces.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 11:59 am to WeeWee
Looks like the first half dozen Ukrainian F-16 pilots will be rated for aircraft operations this spring. My guess was the first batch of their tip of the spear pilots would be ready June 1st so this looks to be right along that timeline. This is only 6 pilots and 6 F-16s though. The next closest group if I had to guess will come in the last couple months of 2024 hopefully to be able to stand their first full operational F-16 squadron by Christmas. It will be early to mid 2025 before they can get most of the others ready. The group in Denmark are Ukraine’s best fighter pilots that already had a strong grasp of the English language so they will be the first 6 along with their ground crews to become operational. Not war winning in the least but even seeing 6 F-16s patrolling the skies this year will not make little Vlad very happy.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 1/10/24 at 12:12 pm to StormyMcMan
I understand that Russia is producing ammunition at a much faster pace. The West does need to step up production. But not substituting bodies in the place of lack of artillery shells.
But I'm steadfast in limiting support to that of a 1SG (I loved being a 1SG but a SFC in combat was much better). Beans and bullets.
But I'm steadfast in limiting support to that of a 1SG (I loved being a 1SG but a SFC in combat was much better). Beans and bullets.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 1:02 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Not war winning in the least but even seeing 6 F-16s patrolling the skies this year will not make little Vlad very happy.
IIRC Ukraine has less than 10 aircraft that are capable of firing western cruise missiles. So even as few as 6 F16s doubles Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Crimea. They may even have enough aircraft to successfully strike the Crimean bridge.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 1:37 pm to WeeWee
His point was that not as good for Ukraine and not as bad for Russia.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 3:25 pm to WeeWee
Ukraine has 6 or 8 Su-24M capable of carrying the Storm Shadow and I believe at least one and most likely 2 aren’t airworthy anymore after the Russians hit the airfield where they are based. So you’re right, it would double their ability to carry
the Storm Shadow. What i’m more interested in is if we supply Ukraine with a small supply of our AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles to supplant the Storm Shadows. We have more JASSMs than the UK or France does Storm Shadow/SCALP.
the Storm Shadow. What i’m more interested in is if we supply Ukraine with a small supply of our AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles to supplant the Storm Shadows. We have more JASSMs than the UK or France does Storm Shadow/SCALP.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 3:45 pm to DabosDynasty
Tusk is nothing but an EU globalist bureaucrat. Polish equivalent to Merkel. Bad news for Poland.
Posted on 1/10/24 at 8:24 pm to AU86
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin’s effort to use the mythos of the Great Patriotic War (Second World War) to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine is at odds with Russia’s current level of mobilization and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetorical attempts to reassure Russians that the war will not have lasting domestic impacts.
The Kremlin may be instructing actors in the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria to set information conditions for a possible false-flag operation in Transnistria as part of wider Kremlin efforts to destabilize Moldova.
The Kremlin may also be reviving its efforts to leverage Transnistria to create instability in Moldova in order to undermine Ukrainian grain exports along the western coast of the Black Sea.
Iran has reportedly developed a new Shahed drone for Russian forces to use against Ukraine and is “close” to providing Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and systems.
European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated that the EU will be able to supply Ukraine with one million shells by spring 2024.
Lithuania announced a new long-term military aid package to Ukraine worth 200 million euros (about $220 million) on January 10.
The very characteristics that make the Russian ultranationalist milblogger community popular – its perceived independence from and willingness to criticize the Russian government – likely continue to complicate the Kremlin’s efforts to co-opt the community as Kremlin mouthpieces.
Russian insider sources continue to discuss the reported removal of First Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU), Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, who was reportedly in charge of the Russian “Volunteer Corps” that was intended to replace the Wagner Group in Ukraine.
Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut and Donetsk City and in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire front.
Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov stated on January 10 that the Russian military plans to reorganize the five existing naval infantry brigades of Russia’s fleets into naval infantry divisions and the Caspian Flotilla’s naval infantry regiment into a naval infantry brigade in the medium-term.
Russian authorities continue to deport prisoners from prisons in occupied Ukraine to Russia and are likely using penal colonies as part of widespread efforts to collect data on Ukrainian citizens.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 12:55 am to WeeWee
quote:
quote:
Poli Sci Prof in Poland tells me that German puppet masters regained control.
I don't care if Poland decides to buy 800 Leopard2s or Black Panthers2s as long as they continue to build up their forces.
Or 40,000 armed drones at $500 each.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 1:00 am to LSUPilot07
Presuming that F16's are upgraded with advanced radar, I don't understand why it takes so long for experienced pilots to get a feel for the new aircraft.
This pace is too slow like so many others.
This pace is too slow like so many others.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 1:05 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Ukraine has reduced their daily volley to around 2000 whereas Russia has increased to 10000 daily.
A key factor here is that Russia is using a lot of Soviet era howitzers that have a shorter range and poor accuracy resulting in Ukrainian artillery showing little concern for counter battery fire.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 7:15 am to Auburn1968
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 January 2024
Ukraine is currently experiencing a cold snap, with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing over the next week leading to lower ground temperatures.
As the ground freezes, the conditions for cross-country movement will almost certainly improve throughout January and into February before thawing in March. The thaw will then lead to a corresponding deterioration in conditions for cross-country movement.
Coupled with the freezing temperatures is an increase in snow cover throughout Ukraine. Snow depth is likely to be a limiting factor for manoeuvrability.
The worsening conditions will be compounded by shortened daylight hours making operating conditions difficult for both sides, which will have to rely on cold weather and night-vision equipment to operate.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 January 2024
Ukraine is currently experiencing a cold snap, with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing over the next week leading to lower ground temperatures.
As the ground freezes, the conditions for cross-country movement will almost certainly improve throughout January and into February before thawing in March. The thaw will then lead to a corresponding deterioration in conditions for cross-country movement.
Coupled with the freezing temperatures is an increase in snow cover throughout Ukraine. Snow depth is likely to be a limiting factor for manoeuvrability.
The worsening conditions will be compounded by shortened daylight hours making operating conditions difficult for both sides, which will have to rely on cold weather and night-vision equipment to operate.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 7:32 am to CitizenK
quote:
His point was that not as good for Ukraine and not as bad for Russia.
If Ukraine can field 12 aircraft (their 6 Migs and 6 F16s) capable of firing western cruise missiles then they have a the ability to launch an attack on the Crimean bridge with enough missiles to not just damage it but destroy it. If they knock out the bridge then Russian is in a pickle. Is 6 F16s a war ending weapon? No but it could change the situation on the ground over the long term especially since they will be getting more jets and missiles as the year goes on.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 7:34 am to cypher
"Plan for victory in Ukraine": US Republicans set out their vision for US role in defeating Russia
Olha Hlushchenko — Thursday, 11 January 2024, 03:58
The US Foreign Affairs Committee, House Armed Services Committee, and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, all of which are chaired by Republicans, have issued a joint document in which they criticise President Joe Biden’s administration for its lack of assistance to Ukraine and demand decisive actions in this regard.
Source: Ukrinform news agency, citing the document
Details: The document, entitled the "Proposed Plan for Victory in Ukraine", was signed by Chairman Michael McCaul of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Chairman Mike Rogers of the House Armed Services Committee, and Chairman Mike Turner of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. It was drafted in late 2023 but has only now started to stir discussions among relevant stakeholders.
Ukrainska Pravda
Proposed Plan For Victory In Ukraine
Olha Hlushchenko — Thursday, 11 January 2024, 03:58
The US Foreign Affairs Committee, House Armed Services Committee, and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, all of which are chaired by Republicans, have issued a joint document in which they criticise President Joe Biden’s administration for its lack of assistance to Ukraine and demand decisive actions in this regard.
Source: Ukrinform news agency, citing the document
Details: The document, entitled the "Proposed Plan for Victory in Ukraine", was signed by Chairman Michael McCaul of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Chairman Mike Rogers of the House Armed Services Committee, and Chairman Mike Turner of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. It was drafted in late 2023 but has only now started to stir discussions among relevant stakeholders.
Ukrainska Pravda
Proposed Plan For Victory In Ukraine
Posted on 1/11/24 at 8:53 am to cypher
quote:
"Plan for victory in Ukraine": US Republicans set out their vision for US role in defeating Russia
Good.
Clarity matters. Give a clear vision of what it will take to "win" - and define winning. Set out what it will cost, how to achieve the goals and then do it.
The US Government authorized "lend-lease" capabilities, and then Biden dithered while Ukrainians died. It's morally reprehensible and makes the US look like incompetent fools.
Posted on 1/11/24 at 9:58 am to Auburn1968
Well first off let’s start with the upgrading of the radars. That is an EXTREMELY time consuming and very technical work that involves basically stripping the aircraft’s systems and slowly replacing, checking, then rechecking the work, then moving on to to the next component rinse and repeat a shitload of times. It’s not like they can just pop a few bolts off and unplug a wiring harness then stick the new one in there and you’re done. This is particularly true if they are going from manually scanned radar to AESA (active electronically scaled array) radars which have more transmitters and abilities to give the pilot real time info faster, clearer and farther in range than the older manually scanned radars.
Now as for why it takes so long for the pilots to learn the aircraft. As far as getting in and flying, you can teach a trained Mig-29 pilot to fly the F-16 in a couple weeks at its most basic form. That isn’t where the issue lies. It’s teaching these pilots how to actually FIGHT the aircraft in combat. The jump from a technical aspect of flying the Mig-29 to the F-16 is like driving a 60 year old old deuce and a half to a brand new Peterbilt. The F-16 is just a technology superior aircraft which makes a lot of the pilot’s job easier but it also takes time to learn all these new elements and then be able to put them into practice in the air under stressful conditions like a combat sortie would be. There’s something we pilots call helmet fire which is when you have your heads up display in your helmet with a million things going on and your brain is trying to process it all at once, all the while you’re still having to fly the jet at extreme high speeds and for Ukraine a lot of the time on the deck flying nap of the earth to stay under enemy radar and air defenses. This stuff takes time and that’s all after the Ukrainians have a good enough grasp of the English language. Even after the Ukrainian pilots get rated to fly the F-16 to an operational squadron that will still go on learning for months as years beyond their formal training period. It’s kind of like golf. You’re never going to be perfect but the more you practice, the better you will be. The more flight hours they get under this new aircraft, the better they will be at utilizing it.
I hope that helped a little to understand. Apologies if it was a little lengthy.
Now as for why it takes so long for the pilots to learn the aircraft. As far as getting in and flying, you can teach a trained Mig-29 pilot to fly the F-16 in a couple weeks at its most basic form. That isn’t where the issue lies. It’s teaching these pilots how to actually FIGHT the aircraft in combat. The jump from a technical aspect of flying the Mig-29 to the F-16 is like driving a 60 year old old deuce and a half to a brand new Peterbilt. The F-16 is just a technology superior aircraft which makes a lot of the pilot’s job easier but it also takes time to learn all these new elements and then be able to put them into practice in the air under stressful conditions like a combat sortie would be. There’s something we pilots call helmet fire which is when you have your heads up display in your helmet with a million things going on and your brain is trying to process it all at once, all the while you’re still having to fly the jet at extreme high speeds and for Ukraine a lot of the time on the deck flying nap of the earth to stay under enemy radar and air defenses. This stuff takes time and that’s all after the Ukrainians have a good enough grasp of the English language. Even after the Ukrainian pilots get rated to fly the F-16 to an operational squadron that will still go on learning for months as years beyond their formal training period. It’s kind of like golf. You’re never going to be perfect but the more you practice, the better you will be. The more flight hours they get under this new aircraft, the better they will be at utilizing it.
I hope that helped a little to understand. Apologies if it was a little lengthy.
This post was edited on 1/11/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 1/11/24 at 7:36 pm to LSUPilot07
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian efforts to expand Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) have yet to fulfill operational requirements in Ukraine and that munitions shortages will continue to prompt Russia to source supplies from abroad.
Freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.
Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on January 11.
Russia may be setting information conditions for future escalations against Latvia by threatening to punish Latvia for closing a likely base of Russian informational influence in Latvia.
European Commission (EC) Defense Industry Spokesperson Johanna Bernsel clarified on January 11 that European Union (EU) member states will be able to produce a million shells per year by spring 2024 but that the delivery of the shells to Ukraine will depend on individual member states.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General published a report on January 11 that states that the failure to document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner is largely due to DoD limitations but that does not suggest that any of the material aid has been misappropriated.
Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced on January 11 that the Verkhovna Rada withdrew a draft law on mobilization for revisions after discussions between Ukrainian legislators and political and military leadership.
A Ukrainian official indicated that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) may struggle to compensate for the loss of base infrastructure after allocating naval assets away from the BSF’s main base of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continued positional engagements along the entire front.
Kremlin newswire TASS reported on January 10 that Russian forces will deploy additional aircraft and vessels and increase the production of hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in 2024.
The Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated on January 10 that it sponsored a trip for 35 Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Mogilev for the New Year holiday during which soldiers taught children “the basics of life safety” and how to behave in “extreme situations.”
Posted on 1/11/24 at 8:34 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Residents across Russia affected by unprecedented winter heating outages in recent days have expressed their growing frustration and urged local authorities to restore heating in their homes. In Podolsk, a town some 30 kilometers south of the capital Moscow, at least 149,000 residents — nearly half of its population — were left in the cold when a heating main burst at a nearby private ammunition plant.
quote:
The Moscow region, where temperatures have plunged to as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius in the past week, as well as the Far East Primorye region, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, Penza, the southern Voronezh and Volgograd regions and others, have all been affected by heating outages this winter. In the Tver region, a group of residents filmed an appeal to President Vladimir Putin, saying that they “are freezing from the cold” in the village of Novozavidovsky.
quote:LINK
Local authorities linked the heating problems to the fact that the town is heated by a boiler plant owned by the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant, a private ammunition factory and one of the largest weapon cartridge production enterprises in the country.
Putin is making the same mistake his communist idols in the USSR made. He is choosing to support a foreign war instead of taking care of the people. It didn’t work out real well for the Soviets IIRC. Also does anyone else find it ironic that Russia was bragging about Europe freezing last winter and now they can’t keep their heat on?
Posted on 1/11/24 at 8:52 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Also does anyone else find it ironic that Russia was bragging about Europe freezing last winter and now they can’t keep their heat on?
Kinda makes me miss OML
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