re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

When the war started I’d falsely assumed that we would see Russia’s version of shock abd awe followed by hundreds of Russian tanks and thousands of Russian storm troopers rolling across the Donbas west deep across Ukraine and the war would be over in relative short order,

That’s how little I know.

LOL. Girkin has announced from prison that he intends to run for president against Putin.

quote:

---

When the war started I’d falsely assumed that we would see Russia’s version of shock abd awe followed by hundreds of Russian tanks and thousands of Russian storm troopers rolling across the Donbas west deep across Ukraine and the war would be over in relative short order,

That’s how little I know.

---

Same, which makes me question did they want this to be a war of attrition from the start or did I vastly overestimate their military capabilites or were they just not THAT comitted

quote:

---

Same, which makes me question did they want this to be a war of attrition from the start or did I vastly overestimate their military capabilites or were they just not THAT comitted

---

That’s a lot to chew on.

There’s been so much BS between then and now, it’s hard to tell.

In my opinion they tried a lightning strike over several theaters before Ukraine had been weakened. The Kiev theater was a disaster for them and that defeat encouraged Ukraine and invited the West to come in big with aid.

Then they were out maneuvered and were thrown back in Kharkiv and Kherson. Since then they have been on defense with some exceptions. Nothing like their initial thrusts.

Isw update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 17 to 18.

A Kyrgyzstan government official called on the Russian government to help Kyrgyz migrants in Russia against the backdrop of recent proposals from Russian government officials to decrease migrant work opportunities in Russia.

Courts in the Republic of Dagestan reportedly continue to charge participants of the October 29 antisemitic riots with minor administrative crimes, while select Russian ultranationalists call for increased government control in order to curb the alleged spread of Islamic extremism in Dagestan.

The Russian government continues efforts to restrict citizens’ access to the internet and to strengthen its control over the Russian information space.

The European Commission will reportedly include sanctions on the sale of petroleum tankers to Russia in an upcoming sanctions package in an effort to curb Russian schemes to skirt the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

Russia has reportedly frozen prisoner of war (POW) exchanges with Ukraine since the summer of 2023.

---

quote:

---

Also according to my friends in Russia, Putin’s recent announcement of plans for mobilization of its economy went over like a wet fart in church Can you link something on this? All I'm seeing is the mobilization from last year and articles speculating about another mobilization

---

quote:

---

Patrushev - formerly head of the FSB security service - demanded more action from border regions to protect Russia against drone attacks from Ukraine. Regional governors must ensure that mobilisation plans for the economy of the Russian regions and municipalities are developed”. This is seen as a strong hint that a new wave of mobilisation is coming. "I ask the heads of regions and federal executive authorities to personally control the implementation of these tasks,” he said.“Specific attention should be paid to the safety of bio-hazardous facilities.”

---

LINK

My apologies. It was Patrushev not Putin that said it, but since Patrushev is Putin’s new arse whiper in chief it’s Putin’s idea. Apparently the Kremlin is pushing rumors that Ukraine will start using drones use bio weapons to attack Russia. Per my friend(s) the average Russians citizen is scared these calls for the regional governors to take plans for mobilization of the economy means more government control. In the industries the government has already taken over all the workers are supposed to be getting record wages but in reality are only getting paid for a one week a month.

quote:

---

Ukraine and Russia their respective air forces have basically just cancelled each other out.

---

The Russian Aerospace forces didn’t have a cheap guided munition when the war started. That and the Soviet air defense systems were the biggest problems. They’re mass producing jdam analogs now, and that’s allows them to carry out 100s of strike missions every month now, that wasn’t possible before.

The extended range Lancets are also proving useful, and they have some level of autonomous terminal guidance now, which limits the Ukrainians ability to disable them with EW.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 November 2023

Russia is likely considering bringing the Soviet-era M-55 MYSTIC B high altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service. With an operating ceiling of over 70,000 feet, the aircraft has been recently employed as an earth-sciences research platform. However, it has been observed carrying a military reconnaissance pod, developed for employment on Russian fighter aircraft.

A critical flaw in Russian procurement strategy has been its failure to establish an adequate Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability. This is critical for the timely and accurate prosecution of targets by air, sea, and ground forces.

There is a realistic possibility that the M-55 will return to frontline service to bolster Russia's limited ISTAR capabilities over Ukraine. Operating at high altitudes enables the sensors to work at considerable stand-off range. It is almost certain that the aircraft will conduct missions against Ukraine from the relative safety of Russian airspace.

A neutral Ukraine, exactly like neutral Belarus.

quote:

---

Moscow didn’t want the war.

---

Then why did Russia start it?

quote:

---

They wanted a neutral Ukraine,

---

Well that backfired on them. When I first went to Ukraine in 2012 Ukrainians saw Russians much like Canadians see Americans. A common people with a lot of similarities but just enough differences not to be one people. Now Ukrainian people hate Russia more than Palestinians hate Israel. Ukraine is now determined to join NATO and will be a thorn in Russia’s side for at least a century. Oh yeah, Russia lost its neutral northern border when Finland and Sweden joined NATO. So much for the buffer zone.