re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian and Russian forces are continuing combat operations in eastern and southern Ukraine, although the rainy weather will likely continue to slow the pace of combat operations until winter conditions fully set in.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes primarily targeting Kyiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy oblasts on the night of November 18 to 19.

Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin formally announced his intent to run in the 2024 Russian presidential elections despite his imprisonment.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be censoring irregular Russian armed formations as part of its ongoing efforts to formalize Russia’s irregular forces and establish greater control over the Russian information space.

Ukrainian officials announced on November 19 that Bohdan Yermokhin, a teenage Ukrainian whom Russian authorities forcibly deported from occupied Mariupol to Russia and attempted to conscript, returned to Ukraine.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger expressed anger on November 19 about Armenia’s decisions to distance itself from Russia against the backdrop of recent deteriorating Armenian-Russian relations.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on November 19.

Regional Russian officials continue to fear the emergence of localized protests in response to the Russian military’s refusal to return some mobilized personnel from the frontlines.

Occupation authorities continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine into Russian national and cultural identities.

---

quote:

---

Russians have definitely shown they're quick to adapt and also that their own version of the MIC is an absolute powerhouse of manufacturing.

---

Huh? If true, why are they begging Egypt for helicopter engines back? Why are they forcing teenagers into factories? Why are they in desperate need of North Korean ammo?

quote:

---

I can't remember where I read it but I saw something that said Russia is manufacturing more shells per month than the west can in a year.

---

I don’t know where you read it, but you should definitely chase it down and give us a link. That is contrary to everything I’ve seen/heard from this war.

quote:

---

quote:
I can't remember where I read it but I saw something that said Russia is manufacturing more shells per month than the west can in a year.

I don’t know where you read it, but you should definitely chase it down and give us a link. That is contrary to everything I’ve seen/heard from this war.

---

Not that I stated this but here is what I dug up
Russian manufacturers are making up to 7 times as much ammunition as Western arms makers, Estonian defense official says

quote:

---

Western officials told the outlet that Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year, which is twice as many as Western intelligence originally estimated it could make before the war.

---

That's 166,666 shells/month

Ukraine is firing shells faster than can be supplied. Can Europe catch up?

quote:

---

But in February 2023, Europe-wide production of artillery ammunition had a maximum capacity of 300,000 shells annually, Estonian defense officials estimated. The best-case scenario of an increase to making 2.1 million shells annually is still years away from being realized.

---

US Army awards $1.5B to boost global production of artillery rounds

quote:

---

Over the last two weeks in September, the service finalized a flurry of contracts that “resourced each major component, material or required production process to maintain momentum for the goal of 80,000 projectiles per month by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025,” it said in an Oct. 6 statement.

Army officials have recently stated that 155mm artillery munition production will increase to 28,000 per month in October, which is double what the Army was producing at the start of the year. The plan is to build roughly 60,000 a month in FY24, reaching 80,000 by FY25. By FY26, the plan is to build 100,000 a month.

---

So the collective West is around 636,000 per year (US 336k and Europe 300k)

So the stat that was talked about appears wrong but that's still just 31.8% of current Russian capacity if I'm reading everything correctly which isn't great

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
20 November 2023

On 7 November 2023, wives of deployed Russian soldiers conducted what was probably the first public street protest in Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine. The protestors gathered in the central Teatralnya Square and unfurled banners demanding the rotation of their partners away from the frontline.

Since February 2022, social media has provided daily examples of Russian wives and mothers making online appeals protesting against the conditions of their loved ones' service. However, Russia's draconian legislation has so far prevented troops' relatives from coalescing into an influential lobbying force, as soldiers' mothers did during the Afghan-Soviet War of the 1980s.

Police broke up the Teatralnya Square protest within minutes. However, the protestors' immediate demand is notable. The apparently indefinitely extended combat deployments of personnel without rotation is increasingly seen as unsustainable by both the troops themselves and by their relatives.

quote:

---

Ukraine's Joint Forces Commander reveals how troops managed to secure access to Black Sea in country's south Olena Roshchina — Monday, 20 November 2023, 15:27

---

No way. I read on the OT that Russia only wanted the Donbas. It’s got to be propaganda.
The moves to take Odessa and Kiev were feints.

If Russia succeeds = was their plan all along

When Russia fricks it up = attacks were just feints or diversions like Kyiv

The wonderful logic of the vodka dick army.

quote:

---

his Foghorn Leghorn arse say that the war was going to be over by the end of the year?

---

I've read several times in the past month that the war is actually over

He’s worse. He’s just a disaffected Neoconfederate who is immensely unhappy at the sight of anyone who is remotely non-white. Also he’s an anti-vaxxer and says some of the dumbest shite which he can never back up. Also, he’s been 100% wrong in pretty much every prediction he’s made since the invasion began.

quote:

---

Didn’t his Foghorn Leghorn arse say that the war was going to be over by the end of the year?

---

It was either him or Errr or it could have been both. It’s getting harder and harder to keep up with which one of the anti Ukraine posters says what.