re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It’s been a bad week for Russia loss wise. Not so much territory wise, but with current conditions, ukraine needs to degrade Russias equipment/manpower/logistics to move the line.

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What possible risk/. reward calculus could the Russians possibly be looking at to justify the risk of those type of losses?
What strategic advantage would justify this type of repeated, costly attack?


It's impossible to know why the Russians are doing what the Russians are doing.

I tend to think they're really struggling to hold on in the south. They've been getting hit pretty hard for months and I'm sure they're hoping to relieve the pressure.

This could be the worst of all worlds, though -- massive losses, no gains, no relief for the south.

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I have a mental image of Putin sticking pins in a map like Hitler.

I'm wondering how they hit so many helos in one spot. Are they parking them right next to each other? From what I've read they didn't get that many atacms (sp). They couldn't have targeted each individual helicopter....did they? Seems like parking them next to each other is poor form. Which they have shown plenty of in the past, but damn

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I'm wondering how they hit so many helos in one spot

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They were given and used the cluster variant. Think it had about 1000 bomblets.

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M39 (ATACMS Block I) missile with inertial guidance. It carries 950 M74 anti-personnel and anti-materiel bomblets, each about the size of a baseball[37] and weighing 1.3 lb (0.59 kg),[2] which are dispersed across a circular area approximately 677 feet (206 m) in diameter, covering 360,000 square feet (33,000 m2) in total

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Aircraft have extremely thin skin to save weight which allows you to carry more fuel and bomb loads so even a single bomblet in the right place can take an aircraft out for good but these ATACMS have about 900-1000 bomblets that get thrown out over a large area because in the final moments the ATACMS do a spin about 100 feet above the ground that throws the munitions to cover a wide area. Russia does have earth work shelters that protects it on the sides and rear but since the ATACMS releases it’s bomblets in the air those shelters provide little cover from bomblets raining down on top where there is no protection for the Russian helos. They do space the aircraft out about 150 feet from each other to protect from a conventional strike but they fired 3 ATACMS at the Berdyansk airfield and 3 more at Luhansk’s airfield which would have basically covered the entire tarmac punching holes through the helo’s skin, fuel tanks, avionics, etc. I’ve been saying the Berdyansk airfield should have been at the top of their target list and apparently it was. If this doesn’t happen in secret like it did Russia would have flown those aircraft out of range but now they have dealt the largest blow to Russia since Kerch getting hit and the Moskva being sunk.

Gotcha, I thought they were just a single warhead of substantial size

ISW Update

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Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on October 20 and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian military command remains committed to offensive operations in the area despite heavy materiel and personnel losses. Geolocated footage published on October 20 shows that Russian forces secured minor advances west of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka).[1] Russian milbloggers and a Ukrainian military observer claimed that Russian forces captured a Ukrainian stronghold near the waste heap just northeast of Avdiivka, advanced to a rail station north of Avdiivka, and advanced near the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant south of Avdiivka.[2] One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), south of Avdiivka, near Stepove (8km northwest of Avdiivka), and near Novokalynove (11km northwest of Avdiivka), however.[3] Other milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to one kilometer on the Stepove-Berdychi line (8-10km northwest of Avdiivka) on October 19 and that fighting is ongoing near Berdychi on October 20.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Stepove, Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Sieverne.[5]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 20 that Ukrainian forces damaged and destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles during the past day of fighting near Avdiivka.[6] Ukrainian soldiers operating in the Avdiivka area reported on October 20 that Ukrainian forces have destroyed 200 Russian armored vehicles in the past four days.[7] Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash stated that Russian forces are attempting to repair damaged equipment while still in the field.[8] Footage published on October 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system near Avdiivka.[9] A Russian milblogger complained that Russian counterbattery fire near Avdiivka is decreasing in effectiveness due to poor communication and the failure to stockpile munitions ahead of the offensive effort, very likely exacerbating material losses in the area.[10] The initial Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka area on October 10 also resulted in high verified Russian equipment losses, and the fact that Russian forces regrouped and re-launched assaults after the initial attacks suggests that either Russian forces believe they can feasibly take Avdiivka, or that the Russian military command is poorly prioritizing offensive operations regardless of cost

Ukrainian forces continued larger-than-usual ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 20 and established a confirmed presence in a settlement on the east bank. Geolocated footage published on October 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced into northeastern Krynky (27km east from Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).[12] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are establishing a foothold near Krynky and continue to maintain their presence near the Antonivsky roadway and railway bridges.[13] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced further into Krynky up to the Kozachi Laheri-Krynky-Korsunka road before Russian airstrikes pushed Ukrainian troops back to the northern outskirts of the settlement.[14] Another Russian milblogger claimed that fighting is ongoing near Pishchanivka (14km east from Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River) and that a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group is operating on the southern outskirts of the settlement.[15] The prominent Russian milblogger suggested that Russian forces only maintained positions on the southern outskirts of Pishchanivka as of the afternoon of October 18, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 19 that Russian aviation struck Pishchanivka, implying that Ukrainian forces were still operating in the settlement

Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to indicate that the Russian units defending the east bank of Kherson Oblast are relatively less combat effective than other Russian forces elsewhere on the front. A Ukrainian military observer stated that the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces is primarily comprised of elements of the 49th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) and likely elements of the newly created 18th Combined Arms Army

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances northwest of Verbove (10km east of Robotyne), though ISW has not observed evidence to confirm this claim.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[25] Russian sources reported Ukrainian attacks south of Bakhmut on the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line and south of Orikhiv near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove.[26]

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, on October 19 to discuss the battlefield situation in Ukraine. Russian media reported that Putin met with the Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander for Russian forces in Ukraine Army General Valery Gerasimov, who told Putin that Russian troops are "solving problems in accordance with the operation plan."[27] Various elements of the SMD are notably currently deployed in critical areas of the frontline — elements of the SMD's 8th Combined Arms Army are conducting offensive operations near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army are defending against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and elements of the 49th Combined Arms Army are operating in the Kherson Oblast direction as of late August 2023.[28] Putin's publicized visit with Gerasimov indicates that Gerasimov is still the active figurehead of Russian operations in Ukraine and was likely meant to posture the effectiveness and involvement of the Russian military leadership as Russian forces pursue offensive and defensive operations along multiple sectors of the front

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I believe this first shipment of ATACMS was for only 12. Joe’s handler who is basically the real POTUS wants to see how they use them but I’m pretty sure more will follow quickly in greater numbers and unitary warhead variants will also come in time. Right now though they are disposing of missiles at a big discount handing them over to the Ukes.

SBU: Russian Orthodox Church runs private military companies to train fighters for Ukraine deployment

The Kremlin-linked Russian Orthodox Church is building and running private military companies (PMC), which recruit and train fighters for deployment in Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on Oct. 19.

The Church receives funding for these activities from financial and industrial groups close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the SBU said. These funds are reportedly donated as "charitable contributions" for "construction of churches."

One example of a church-run PMC named by the SBU is the St. Andrew's Cross organization based in the Kronstadt Naval Cathedral in northwestern Russia.

The Russian news outlet Bloknot reported on the St. Andrew's Cross's activities last year, calling it "the first PMC under the Russian Orthodox Church." The group was reportedly set up in 2017 to provide military training for other mercenary companies' recruits.

The Kyiv Independent