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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/30/23 at 10:14 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 7/30/23 at 10:14 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
ISW kinda sucks.
Early in the conflict, they were indispensable. But that was before everyone had their curated lists in Telegram and Twitter. Indeed, it was before certain Twitter posters lined up connections in various Ukrainian military units, such that they could report from them. It was before certain Twitter posters started signing up and paying for satellite images that showed exactly where shelling is taking place.
It's not that ISW got any worse. It's just that the OSINT community got so much better.
2
Posted on 7/30/23 at 10:26 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
as the average American knowing we have over a thousand troops and have spent billions in the region.
Why have we done this? What's our reason for being there? NATo Obligations?
Posted on 7/30/23 at 10:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's not that ISW got any worse. It's just that the OSINT community got so much better.
Nah, they’ve always sucked. It’s a collection of academics, failed spies and out of touch military officers who don’t have the balls to stand by their own assessments. The majority of our senior officers in Iraq and Afhganistan were more concerned with getting promoted than winning. The majority of our spies are academics with zero real world knowledge. That’s who ISW hires and as far as I’m concerned they’re amateurs with fancy title.
Posted on 7/30/23 at 10:45 pm to supadave3
quote:
Why have we done this? What's our reason for being there? NATo Obligations?
Remember Benghazi?
Well during the Libyan civil war Gadaffi hired a bunch of mercenaries from a tribe called the Tuaregs. These guys have a been nomadic band of mercenaries, traders and smugglers between sub-saharan and the Med since the middle ages at least. Think turban wearing light skinned black dudes on camels. They’re good fighters.
So they were fighting for Gadaffi when the west intervened in the war. The Tuaregs saw the writing on the wall and hauled arse back to the sahel with a bunch of Gaqdafi’s weapons. The Tuaregs have never had a country to call their own. They tend to star a rebellion evey 100 years or so but they always lose becuase they’re nomadic and don’t really tend to stick together. But in any case they formed a little army and started to take over Mali starting in the North. And they were quite succesful at first. They conquered Gao and Timbuktu and Mopti and were working thier way down, up rather, the Niger river to the caqpitol of Bamako. While this was happening al queda showed up and was like “hey, were muslim too and have lots of money, can we tag along?’”. Of course the Tuaregs said yes.
So the Tuaregs fought all the battles and took all the towns and kept headinging south while al queda set up tyrannical shiari law behind them, chopping off hand and making women cover up their titties and such.
At some point France said that’s enough and, IMO, one of the most impressive military feats of the century, sent about 500 paratroopers and like 3 helicopters to Mali and ended the rebellion in about 2 weeks recapturing all of Mali.
Then the insurgency happened just like Iraq and Afghanistan did with the US and here we are.
Anyways, We’re there because of AQ or ISIS or JNIM or whatever you want to call zealous Islamic extremists these days.
This post was edited on 7/30/23 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 7/31/23 at 6:01 am to GeauxxxTigers23
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 31 July 2023
The Russian authorities are prioritising amending legislation to allow more men to be rapidly drafted into the military. In mid-July 2023, the State Duma increased the maximum age of liability for conscription from 27 to 30, while retaining the current lower limit at 18. While conscripts are not currently deployed in Ukraine, extra draftees free-up professional and mobilised soldiers from other duties inside Russia.
On 24 July 2023, President Putin signed a bill which will gradually increase the upper age limit for those liable for call up as reservists, with senior officers can now be mobilised up to 70. Reservists made up the Autumn 2022 'partial mobilisation' and could provide a more immediate boost to the number available to fight in Ukraine.
The increased chance of being compelled to fight, drone attacks on Moscow, exceptional level of domestic repression, and the recent Wagner mutiny combine to highlight the Russian state's failure to insulate the population from the war.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 31 July 2023
The Russian authorities are prioritising amending legislation to allow more men to be rapidly drafted into the military. In mid-July 2023, the State Duma increased the maximum age of liability for conscription from 27 to 30, while retaining the current lower limit at 18. While conscripts are not currently deployed in Ukraine, extra draftees free-up professional and mobilised soldiers from other duties inside Russia.
On 24 July 2023, President Putin signed a bill which will gradually increase the upper age limit for those liable for call up as reservists, with senior officers can now be mobilised up to 70. Reservists made up the Autumn 2022 'partial mobilisation' and could provide a more immediate boost to the number available to fight in Ukraine.
The increased chance of being compelled to fight, drone attacks on Moscow, exceptional level of domestic repression, and the recent Wagner mutiny combine to highlight the Russian state's failure to insulate the population from the war.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 7:13 am to cypher
Malcontent News has made today’s Situation Report free to the public. It’s been a while since they have done this. It’s about 53 pages or so. Always well sourced and fact-checked.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 9:43 am to TBoy
We finally have a pic of the damage to the Syvash Railway Bridge. It doesn't appear that trains will be running over this anytime soon.
This almost kills Russian rail logistics in southern Ukraine. Look at the railway map:
Russia could still push trains through western Crimea, close to Kherson, and then east -- but that's a long route, and it's very much in HIMARS range.
Fundamentally, Storm Shadow is enabling the Ukrainian offensive. The Ukrainian offensive would have been a complete failure without it.
This almost kills Russian rail logistics in southern Ukraine. Look at the railway map:
Russia could still push trains through western Crimea, close to Kherson, and then east -- but that's a long route, and it's very much in HIMARS range.
Fundamentally, Storm Shadow is enabling the Ukrainian offensive. The Ukrainian offensive would have been a complete failure without it.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 11:17 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It doesn't appear that trains will be running over this anytime soon.
Three or four hour repair job for a hotshot crew.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 11:28 am to ImaObserver
Posted on 7/31/23 at 11:44 am to ImaObserver
quote:
quote:It doesn't appear that trains will be running over this anytime soon. Three or four hour repair job for a hotshot crew
Yeah that will cause a couple of days delay but easily repairable.
Bridge structures are what they need to damage. That’s weeks to months.
That’s too close to land.
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 11:46 am
Posted on 7/31/23 at 11:54 am to XenScott
That's a large pot hole...that can be fixed fairly easily and quickly. Don't quite understand why everyone is saying its "destroyed"?
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 11:55 am
Posted on 7/31/23 at 12:00 pm to Buckeye Backer
It’s because of the location. It’s near the transition from land to bridge. Soil stability is more of the issue.
That said, it won’t take “weeks” to repair. War-time repairs will get it “good enough” in a few days.
That said, it won’t take “weeks” to repair. War-time repairs will get it “good enough” in a few days.
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 7/31/23 at 12:34 pm to Hateradedrink
For the remainder of the war????
How do they know that even if there is major structural damage we can’t see from above? No one knows how long this war is going to last.
How do they know that even if there is major structural damage we can’t see from above? No one knows how long this war is going to last.
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 7/31/23 at 12:37 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
It’s because of the location. It’s near the transition from land to bridge. Soil stability is more of the issue.
That said, it won’t take “weeks” to repair. War-time repairs will get it “good enough” in a few days.
Right. On regular land, this would take a crew 2-3 hours to fix. But, here, at the edge of the water, there are deeply-driven steel supports under this section of track that are damaged and much more work to replace. It's not something that's going to get fixed in a day.
But this isn't Kerch, where Ukraine has only been able to strike under highly unusual circumstances. This is a location where, when Russia repairs the bridge in a week or two, Ukraine will simply hit it with another Storm Shadow and take it out again.
When Ukraine took out the Chonhar road bridge a month ago, Russia simply plunked down a pontoon bridge the next day, and normal activity resumed. That's not going to happen with this rail bridge.
In that sense, Tendar isn't wrong. The bridge is indeed effectively out of commission for the rest of the war, because Ukraine will keep it so.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 12:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
I wonder what it’s like on those trains moving equipment/supplies to the front. It seems like it would be stressful as shite.. wtf do you even do if you come under attack?
Do military personnel operate the trains?
Do military personnel operate the trains?
Posted on 7/31/23 at 2:01 pm to Athanatos
quote:
If anything this conflict is highlighting what we don’t have, which is a robust production of smaller, cheaper drones and the ability to produce munitions in meaningful quantities to address war time burn rates.
I suspect that this will give DARPA a new set of priorities.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 3:11 pm to ColtRange
Quick update from an insider:
Russia is being annihilated. Ukraine is dominating across all fronts.
Have a great week guys and never stop fighting - Ever.
Russia is being annihilated. Ukraine is dominating across all fronts.
Have a great week guys and never stop fighting - Ever.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 3:14 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Do military personnel operate the trains?
Civilian but a government agency. The director got a Hero of Ukraine award for keeping the trains running.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 3:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
Today. CNN but Petraeus has some experience... Interesting thing is that Ukraine's troops get rotated out periodically, but Russia's evidently not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEqLQDh1n3s
quote:
Retired General and former CIA Director David Petraeus discusses the state of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and reveals what he thinks it will take to break through Russia’s defensive lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEqLQDh1n3s
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 7/31/23 at 4:13 pm to Pecker
quote:
Quick update from an insider:
Russia is being annihilated. Ukraine is dominating across all fronts.
Have a great week guys and never stop fighting - Ever.
fricking bozo!
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