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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/31/23 at 7:15 pm to imjustafatkid
Posted on 7/31/23 at 7:15 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
I wouldn't describe "on the run from the Ukraine government" as "free
He’s producing pro-Russia propaganda during wartime from inside Ukraine. He could be killed on the street and no one would bat an eye. The fact that he is walking and talking and posting on the internet is a surprise.
And by comparison, under the Sedition Act of 1918 in the good old US of A, he would be facing 20 years in prison. Ukraine’s laws are permissive by comparison.
This post was edited on 7/31/23 at 7:21 pm
2
Posted on 7/31/23 at 7:53 pm to TBoy
quote:
He’s producing pro-Russia propaganda during wartime from inside Ukraine.
Is he? I don't see anything like that on his Twitter.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 9:10 pm to imjustafatkid
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Wagner Group may be supplanting the Russian military as the Belarusian military’s key training partner.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely succeeded in recruiting an unknown number of Wagner personnel following Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, though Prigozhin ordered remaining Wagner fighters to assemble in Belarus by August 5.
Prigozhin stated that the Wagner Group stopped recruiting in Russia and claimed that the Wagner Group does not need to recruit more personnel and has sufficient reserves.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian state as adequately supporting long-term force-generation efforts and meeting Russian weapons demand through domestic production and international cooperation.
Imagery posted on July 30 and 31 visually confirms damage to the Chonhar Bridge following a Ukrainian strike on July 29.
Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war, very likely violating the Fourth Geneva Convention.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 31.
Iran and Belarus are deepening bilateral cooperation over the backdrop of their mutual support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak stated on July 30 that Kyiv and Washington will begin consultations on providing Ukraine “security guarantees” as soon as the week of August 6 – 13.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna and Avdiivka-Donetsk City lines and made claimed gains in Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified a law on July 31 increasing the fine for mobilized personnel’s or conscripts' failure to arrive at a military registration office after being summoned.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 9:10 pm to TBoy
Interesting interview with Ukrainian military planner who goes by the callsign "Arty Green."
Youtube link
It's 56 minutes, and I didn't watch every second, so I'm not going to try to summarize key points, but I thought that the following idea was very interesting. This isn't his thought directly, but rather it's my take on his take:
Prigozhin has thousands of men with him in Belarus. Wagner is paying them, and these men aren't doing much to make any money. They might be generating a little money from Lukashenko for some training of Belarussian troops, but not much. Basically, Prigozhin is paying this men vast sums of money to wait.
But wait for what? Well, Prigozhin can see which way the wind is blowing. He knows that Ukraine is winning, and he knows that the political leadership in the Kremlin will not survive major losses. When the Ukrainian offensive succeeds in taking the "land bridge" this fall, and when it also takes Bakhmut, and when Putin desperately tries to do another mobilization to stem the losses, that's when another mutiny attempt would likely succeed.
And "Arty Green" points out that Prigozhin would likely get widespread backing from many units of Russian troops in such a case.
His view (and mine) is that the war ends as a result of political turmoil in Moscow, not simply on the battlefield itself.
Putin is up for re-election on March 17 of next year -- that isn't that far off! Putin is still popular today, but if Russia has lost the "land bridge" and Bakhmut, and if Crimea is threatened, would he be re-elected (assuming that a coup hadn't already forced him out)? I think he would lose in a landslide, and all the election fraud in the world wouldn't work.
Youtube link
It's 56 minutes, and I didn't watch every second, so I'm not going to try to summarize key points, but I thought that the following idea was very interesting. This isn't his thought directly, but rather it's my take on his take:
Prigozhin has thousands of men with him in Belarus. Wagner is paying them, and these men aren't doing much to make any money. They might be generating a little money from Lukashenko for some training of Belarussian troops, but not much. Basically, Prigozhin is paying this men vast sums of money to wait.
But wait for what? Well, Prigozhin can see which way the wind is blowing. He knows that Ukraine is winning, and he knows that the political leadership in the Kremlin will not survive major losses. When the Ukrainian offensive succeeds in taking the "land bridge" this fall, and when it also takes Bakhmut, and when Putin desperately tries to do another mobilization to stem the losses, that's when another mutiny attempt would likely succeed.
And "Arty Green" points out that Prigozhin would likely get widespread backing from many units of Russian troops in such a case.
His view (and mine) is that the war ends as a result of political turmoil in Moscow, not simply on the battlefield itself.
Putin is up for re-election on March 17 of next year -- that isn't that far off! Putin is still popular today, but if Russia has lost the "land bridge" and Bakhmut, and if Crimea is threatened, would he be re-elected (assuming that a coup hadn't already forced him out)? I think he would lose in a landslide, and all the election fraud in the world wouldn't work.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 9:13 pm to StormyMcMan
Really good tank chat on the T-72 including Dag Patchett, a former T-72 commander from Eastern Germany.
Goes into many of the design features, especially the auto loader, challenging some of the common Western beliefs about such a system in Russian tanks through Dag's own experience - though it is only a single example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XjFKVyXzls - Video
Goes into many of the design features, especially the auto loader, challenging some of the common Western beliefs about such a system in Russian tanks through Dag's own experience - though it is only a single example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XjFKVyXzls - Video
Posted on 7/31/23 at 10:18 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Really good tank chat on the T-72 including Dag Patchett, a former T-72 commander from Eastern Germany.
Goes into many of the design features, especially the auto loader, challenging some of the common Western beliefs about such a system in Russian tanks through Dag's own experience - though it is only a single example.
LINK - Video
That was so good. Thanks for sharing.
Posted on 7/31/23 at 10:19 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
all the election fraud in the world wouldn't work.
Oh my sweet summer child
Posted on 8/1/23 at 12:13 am to Hateradedrink
We still up in here committed to fighting this war for freedom and democracy?
When do the Ukraine elections begin?
When do the Ukraine elections begin?
Posted on 8/1/23 at 12:22 am to Errerrerrwere
quote:
When do the Ukraine elections begin?
When their constitution says to. Case closed
Posted on 8/1/23 at 4:30 am to CitizenK
I think is the first reported footage of Gerasimov that has been widely circulated since the attempted Wagner mutiny.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1686264748210278400 - Video
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1686264748210278400 - Video
quote:
Russian media announced the arrival of the Chief of the General Staff of Russia Valery Gerasimov to Ukraine, reportedly he visited the Zaporizhzia region and 'inspected' the troops and plans.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 4:38 am to OutsideObserver
I saw this much earlier in the feeds and was waiting for someone to get it geolocated.
I was not disappointed. Not quite at the level of the one doing the rounds earlier in the week where they were shooting in completely opposite directions with an rpg and machine gun, but close.
Add overly foliaged bushes and trees alongside goats to the list of things that should steer clear of the Akhmat brigade.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1686232775936892928 - Video
I was not disappointed. Not quite at the level of the one doing the rounds earlier in the week where they were shooting in completely opposite directions with an rpg and machine gun, but close.
Add overly foliaged bushes and trees alongside goats to the list of things that should steer clear of the Akhmat brigade.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1686232775936892928 - Video
Posted on 8/1/23 at 5:03 am to OutsideObserver
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 August 2023
In southern Ukraine, intense fighting continues to be focused in two sectors. South of Orikhiv, the focus of Ukrainian assaults have been against Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA). 58 CAA is highly likely struggling with battle fatigue and attrition in forward deployed regiments which have been in intense combat for over eight weeks.
Further east, south of Velyka Novosilka, the defending Russian force is drawn from both the Eastern and Southern military districts, likely creating problems of co-ordination. Elements of the 5th Combined Army are likely to be under particular pressure, and probably also feel that they are long overdue for a rotation out of the front-line.
Across the south, common problems for Russian commanders are highly likely to include shortage of artillery ammunition, a lack of reserves and problems securing the flanks of units in the defence.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 August 2023
In southern Ukraine, intense fighting continues to be focused in two sectors. South of Orikhiv, the focus of Ukrainian assaults have been against Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA). 58 CAA is highly likely struggling with battle fatigue and attrition in forward deployed regiments which have been in intense combat for over eight weeks.
Further east, south of Velyka Novosilka, the defending Russian force is drawn from both the Eastern and Southern military districts, likely creating problems of co-ordination. Elements of the 5th Combined Army are likely to be under particular pressure, and probably also feel that they are long overdue for a rotation out of the front-line.
Across the south, common problems for Russian commanders are highly likely to include shortage of artillery ammunition, a lack of reserves and problems securing the flanks of units in the defence.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 6:09 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
Oh my sweet summer child
I mean, if Russia is widely understood as losing the war, and if Putin "wins" a closely contested election, that's going to lead to mass protests.
Putin may have the ideology of the USSR, but he doesn't have anything resembling the USSR's kind of internal security. The FSB is not capable of doing what the KGB did. Putin is capable today of dictatorial rule only because he has popular support.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 6:41 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Putin may have the ideology of the USSR, but he doesn't have anything resembling the USSR's kind of internal security. The FSB is not capable of doing what the KGB did. Putin is capable today of dictatorial rule only because he has popular support.
Maybe not but there are more FSB agents than there were KGB agents.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 7:14 am to CitizenK
quote:
there are more FSB agents than there were KGB agents.
If Russia is seen as losing the war, many of them will be looking for ways to take Putin out.
EDIT: In reviewing my earlier comment, I think it might have seemed to some of you that I was suggesting that Putin might lose the election to a "peace" candidate, Putin would leave office, and the new Russia president would negotiate a peace treaty. No, that's obviously ridiculous.
My point is that an "election" of any kind could dramatically increase political instability in Russia, because the very nature of it invites Russians to reflect on how well the war is going for them. If people are seriously unhappy with Putin, then election fraud and a "big Putin victory" won't stop an armed force led by Prigozhin.
This post was edited on 8/1/23 at 7:57 am
Posted on 8/1/23 at 8:31 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Russia is seen as losing the war, many of them will be looking for ways to take Putin out
There are maybe 200 people who control what happens in the Kremlin. It would be Putin being forced into retirement. Elections have little credibility in Russia. In no way should Russian's be viewed as any nation in the West, centuries of apathy is a real thing. What happened a little over 100 years ago is troops returning from the front and there were a lot more than are in Ukraine today.
It is a mistake to apply any western values to Russia. They don't even think like we do in the West
Posted on 8/1/23 at 8:52 am to CitizenK
quote:
Maybe not but there are more FSB agents than there were KGB agents.
That doesn’t seem right.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 9:23 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
That doesn’t seem right.
Over 1 million FSB agents
Posted on 8/1/23 at 9:29 am to CitizenK
quote:
Over 1 million FSB agents
That’s a lot of pieces of pie.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 9:55 am to CitizenK
I still don’t believe that.
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