re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Quick update from an insider:

Russia is being annihilated. Ukraine is dominating across all fronts.

Have a great week guys and never stop fighting - Ever.

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Russia is on the verge of collapse. They have 2 weeks max

This is a very informative thread on the composition and location of the Russian defensive lines along the Kopani-Robotyne-Tokmak sector of the Zaporizhzhia front. As they note the information they used was several months old so Russia has improved these lines since then. This is the first time I have come across this account, so take with a grain of salt but looks well established and posting history looks solid.

Apologies on the length of this post but I found it be to be very insightful and gives several indicators on why Ukraine has been focusing where they have, as well as covering many of the thoughts and ideas expressed here on the lack of progress against such defences. The comment section also has a good discussion of various points.

https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584386601951238

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1/ Thread: Analysis of Russian defensive network and field fortifications on Kopani-Robotyne-Tokmak sector of the Zaporizhzhia front. This analysis was done using Sentinel Hub EO imagery and commercially available very high-resolution satellite imagery by Airbus DS Pléiades Neo.



2/ Russian defenses have been constructed along dominant heights and ridgelines. Defenses have been established at depth of 25-30km from Russian forward line of friendly troops (FLOT) all the way to the city of Tokmak.



3/ There are several distinct layers or defensive zones. Zone 1: first 3-4km from the RuFLOT is the forward security zone consisting of individual squad or platoon outposts and individual company strongpoints.



4/ Zone 2: first defensive line, 2-3km deep. Company trenches and strongpoints arranged along key terrain features in continuous line. This zone has seen recent additions and is constantly being improved. Villages of Kopani and Robotyne form the linchpins of this position.

5/ Zone 3: 4-5km deep zone with reserve- and possible decoy positions. This zone is also where majority of the local Russian artillery and mechanized reserves will be maneuvering behind the first defense line. Multiple shelter areas for vehicles and equipment observed.

6/ Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep.

7/ Zone 5: Reserve and fallback positions behind the main defensive line (zone 3). Zone 6: Town of Tokmak and the surrounding AT-ditch and strongpoints form the last fallback and reserve position on this sector, prepared for all-around defense.

8/ I have complied a collection of samples of different field fortification types and examples from across this sector. Note that the high resolution Pléiades Neo images are from 13thMAR 23 so they are quite old at this point. Many fortifications were under construction.



9/ 1: Forwardmost Russian platoon (+) strongpoint 600m wide. 2: 1,20km company (-) trench line. 3: 500m wide trench in tree line + additional trenches under construction. 4: Two squad or section outposts guarding a gap between positions.



10/ 5: Company trench system 1600m wide under construction. 6: Anti-tank ditch at the northern edge of Robotyne + small squad strongpoints. 7: Trenches, dugouts, and AT-ditches west of Robotyne. 8: Trenches under construction, northern edge of Kopani.



11/ 9: Reserve trench under construction south of Robotyne. 10: Trenches and dugouts being constructed on heights overlooking Rivne. 11: Two 300m wide platoon strongpoints under construction. 12. 300m wide platoon strongpoint between Solodka Balka and Novoprokopivka.



12/ 13: Around Solodka Balka, 11km behind the RuFLOT, a multilayered main defensive line is being constructed. It comprises of AT-ditches, dragons teeth obstacles, minefields, and multiple consecutive trench lines at average depth of 2-3km.



13/ Notice the large number of dugouts and vehicle firing positions being constructed. These positions have been completed since then. Trenches in the sample pictures 13a and 13b are roughly 3km in width and could serve as battalion strongpoint.

14/ 14-15: as can be seen from this sentinel image, the Russian trench lines and fortifications continue on both sides of Solodka Balka strongpoint with multiple fallback positions and reserve trenches. Russians can deploy multiple battalions of infantry along this defensive belt



15/ Finally before Tokmak, there is a second robust reserve line 6-7km behind Solodka Balka. Tokmak is also surrounded by circular AT-ditch and multiple separate strongpoints. Village of Ocheretuvate is also being fortified for all-around defense.



16/ But that’s enough for today. You can find more about the Russian fortifications on our map at: https://scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194
(From the sidebar click “Russian defence lines”)

17/ Finally we would like to thank @wihurinrahasto for funding our research and enabling us to purchase commercial satellite imagery. This analysis would not have been possible without them. This thread will be followed by tactical-operational analysis at later date.

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Gonzalo Lira just got out of jail and has a thread on twitter about how well he was treated by the democratic judicial system of Ukraine.

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Interesting story - though right now that is all it is.

If he manages to complete his escape, and it isn't a ploy to make him disappear, (which in honesty would confirm his account somewhat) then hopefully the book he mentions will offer something more substantiative than what, for all intensive purposes, sounds like a script for a 90's spy flick.

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Looks very difficult to get through. If they manage to overwhelm the fighters there I would imagine they have every grid there zeroed for arty. Gonna be a tough nut to crack

Reportedly Russia is rotating Spetz into the frontline to replace a depleted unit. That is a waste and not what they are trained for.

“Fixed defenses are a monument to the stupidity of man.”

We will see how accurate that is

I usually ignore Trent Telenko, because he's annoying and posts a lot of BS, but I always pay attention when he posts about logistics, because that is a topic he actually understands at a very high level.

LINK

His main point is that Russia could use barges from Rostov/Taganrog to supply much of the southern front, and barges aren't restricted to Mariupol and Berdyansk, because they have such shallow draft that they could dock and unload at a number of places along the southern coast.

River barges are not designed for even the Asov Sea. How many ocean going barges are available. Plus the double and triple handling. We already know that Russia's military doesn't seem to know what a pallet is, much less containerization.

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Terrible story, but he is free.

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I wouldn't describe "on the run from the Ukraine government" as "free."

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Thanks!

I think the Billion dollar question, is "How many troops does Russia have to man all those lines and are the ones they do have mobile enough to be able to fall back in good order"?

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Very much agree. Defensive lines are fine things to have but if they aren't manned or can't be retreated to in good order they become road bumps to your opponent and obstacles to your own troops.

One of the questions I have is how heavily mined the rear areas are as well. Common sense would dictate that mining them heavily would inhibit an orderly retreat, though you can leave avenues open and mine them after troops withdraw via remote mining and it is a potential way to keep mobiks from retreating - hold the line or retreat over mine fields.

There has been indications that Russia is looking to a new mobilisation, though this has been floated numerous times so may just be noise.

If it does prove true, then it it is likely Russia is running quite low on manpower as mobilisations outside the regular intakes and draining of the prison system have generally been avoided so far by Russia unless the shortage is significant and my impression is that Russia is trying to avoid them till weather conditions are in their favour.

We would also have a reasonably accurate window on how much time Ukraine has left to make an effective breakthrough to take advantage of this before Russia can get more bodies in the field or degrading weather conditions reduce offensive movement. The key question for Ukraine is if they have the combat power remaining after effecting a breakthrough to exploit the situation.