re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If anything this conflict is highlighting what we don’t have, which is a robust production of smaller, cheaper drones and the ability to produce munitions in meaningful quantities to address war time burn rates.

There's a lot of optimism tonight on the Ukrainian side about what's happening along the Velyka Novosilka axis (what Russia calls the Vremivsky Ridge axis), so I wanted to go over it. I've numbered the areas we're discussing.





1) Ukraine finally took Staromaiorske a few days ago, but Russia counterattacked, and there were reports yesterday that Russia had succeeded in pushing Ukraine out of most of the city. Those reports proved to be incorrect (or, if they were, then Russia was again pushed back), and Ukraine is in firm control of the village.

2) Urozhaine (which translates to "Harvest" -- I've seen a few puns) is currently being cleared by Ukrainian troops. After the loss of Staromaiorske, there was simply no way that Russia could hold it. It may be another day or so, though, before we get official word.

3) Ukraine tried to take Novodonetske a month ago, and failed. Since then they have been unable to do anything over there, until the last couple of days. There are now reports of fighting inside the city, and Ukraine claims to have cut the road from there south to Kermenchyk. It's fall may be imminent.

4) In the western part of this sector, Ukraine made a big attempt to take Pryyutne a couple of weeks ago. Not only did they fail, but then Russia pushed them back something like 2 km. Ukraine has now regained that and is back to the treeline just north of the village. I expect Ukraine to make another attempt to take Pryyutne sometime in the next week.

After that, Ukraine will try to push the whole front line forward to something like the yellow line, before attempting the next objective, which is:

5) Staromlynivka. I do not think it will be easy for Ukraine to take this town. It will likely require several weeks of fighting. It might be September before we see any videos of Ukrainian flags being hoisted in the town.

If and when Ukraine takes Staromlynivka, then the main Russian defensive line is a few more miles ahead. Unless something dramatically changes the pace, I don't see Ukraine making a major attempt to break that line until mid-September.

Still, Ukraine has time to do that before the mud season kicks in. Mud season starts earlier further north, and I don't think that conditions in the south get too bad until mid-November.

Why would they need to mass combat forces on the border to conduct a terrorist attack? That makes no sense

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produce munitions in meaningful quantities to address war time burn rates.

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With our modern ways of fighting are we ever going to need endless supplies of ammo and mortor rounds and such?

We kind of have a lot of subs and ships with cruise missiles and a virtually unstoppable air power.
If we are ever doing this same kind of fighting that Ukraine and Russia are doing, it’s going to be bad.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting on the war in Ukraine and may suggest that the Kremlin has directed Russian milbloggers to refrain from covering certain topics.

Russian President Vladimir Putin disingenuously framed the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive as inhibiting prospects for negotiations.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and made claimed advances in some areas.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kremina and Avdiivka-Donetsk City lines and did not make any confirmed gains in these areas.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations southwest and northwest of Bakhmut and made claimed gains in this direction.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed marginal advances.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces counterattacked and regained lost positions in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.

Russian sources claimed that Russian officials plan to regulate civilian volunteers who take supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly sabotaged Russian military equipment in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast on July 29.

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ISW kinda sucks.

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I mostly agree. I’m glad it gets posted because it is an aggregated summary of events, but there is almost no insight or context or analysis in the reports. Especially if you follow this thread, everything in the ISW reports has largely been flagged by someone.

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ISW kinda sucks.

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It’s anither information piece. That’s about it IMO. Because they don’t want to post inaccurate information they 1) post information as “stated by Russian or as stated by Ukrainian” forces 2) they wait a few days before actually posting map changes as they wait for geolocation confirmation 3) they don’t want to appear biased for either side so the updates are very “bland”.

Knowing how they post allows them to be used another source of information you can pool together to build a picture of what is happening

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For someone who cries "link please?" at any pro Ukrainian opinion/assertation you certainly have no aversion to outrageous hyperbole to make your own points.

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I rarely ask for a link unless i find a claim outlandish or one that I simply disagree with.

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According to the U.S. Airforce, the newest American 'airbase' in Agadez which opened in 2019 and cost $110 million, not a billion. The U.S. base there is only a small portion of the facility, the rest being used by the Niger military. The USAF did build the entire airfield for the $110 million. VOA

The other base is also a small section within the long existing Dori Hamani International Airport in Niamey. The U.S. base uses the existing runway, etc. The U.S. likely had to pay for hangers, a taxiway(s), quarters, offices, etc. The U.S. apparently operates drones out of these bases in support of the (now former) government of Niger against terrorism as part of Operation Juniper Shield. Wikipedia

Total cost likely around $150 million.

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. If you want to talk about the cost of concrete and hanger materials then mayyyyyybe you’re close with the $150 million mark. The pont was that we’ve been housing, feeding, medically supporting and paying nearly 1000 troops at these bases for about 7-10 years depending on how you want to count it. That doesn’t count the cost of fuel and maintenance on all the aircraft and vehicles we’ve been using to assist Niger and our other partners in the region for the past decade. I don’t have the numbers on hand but I beleive our financial and material support to Niger has been +100 million a year for quite a while.

I’m pretty well versed in the region and our activities there. I don’t make up anything I say.