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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/14/23 at 12:25 am to Tiger985
Posted on 7/14/23 at 12:25 am to Tiger985
quote:
100,000 plus dead and counting for absolutely nothing. Awesome deal!
This stupid war hasn't changed a single thing geopolitically. Just a lot of dead people and orphans and widows.
Mass madness.
Russia should withdraw.
0
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:10 am to Chromdome35
quote:
It will be interesting to hear their response to getting asked "Why did you activate these reserves?" If anyone will ask it.
I think that when it's announced what they are calling up, will give a good idea as to why they are calling them up.
ETA: I'm not aware of any pending massive shipments of war materials to Ukraine, enough so that it would require activating reserves to support.
I saw this earlier and haven't seen anything official beyond the announcement.
It is being used by several Pro-Russian sources as evidence that those that signed on 3-6 year terms under Trump are coming up for renewal and are leaving the service rather than sticking around and that manpower shortages will only get worse because it ties in with the narrative that the armed forces have gone "woke".
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:14 am to OutsideObserver
Early reports of a push around Urozhaine.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679757653931700225
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679757653931700225
quote:
Russian channels report big fights in the 'Vremievsky ledge' which is the area south of Velyka Novosilka.
"The enemy went on a large-scale offensive in the area of Urozhaine. Prior to the attack, they conducted a massive artillery preparation. There's a big fight going on."
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:17 am to OutsideObserver
Weren't they on the brink of almost taking Marinka a few weeks ago?
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1679714956282068992
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1679714956282068992
quote:
Colonel General Kadyrov reported that Chechen Akhmat 54th Brigade has been withdrawn from Marinka
"The problem is that the city has literally been turned into an underground fortified area with many underground passages. This makes it possible for Ukrainians to move unnoticed."
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:20 am to OutsideObserver
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 July 2023
On 12 July 2023, Russian state media reported that nuclear-powered submarines of Russia's Northern Fleet will not be taking part in the main Navy Day fleet review in St Petersburg on 30 July 2023.
Since the current Navy Day format was established in 2017, this would be the first year that no nuclear-powered submarines have been involved. The change is likely primarily due to allow for maintenance and to retain availability for operations and training.
There is also a realistic possibility that internal security concerns since Wagner Group's attempted mutiny have contributed to the decision.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 July 2023
On 12 July 2023, Russian state media reported that nuclear-powered submarines of Russia's Northern Fleet will not be taking part in the main Navy Day fleet review in St Petersburg on 30 July 2023.
Since the current Navy Day format was established in 2017, this would be the first year that no nuclear-powered submarines have been involved. The change is likely primarily due to allow for maintenance and to retain availability for operations and training.
There is also a realistic possibility that internal security concerns since Wagner Group's attempted mutiny have contributed to the decision.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:23 am to OutsideObserver
I had suggested Darth do one but he hasn't yet but someone did and used a salt lamp.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:26 am to Obtuse1
Posted on 7/14/23 at 4:28 am to Obtuse1
Article from Russian publisher The Bell on the resignation of Popov which gives some more context and possible ramifications for Russia, apologies on translation.
https://thebell.io/chem-opasna-otstavka-generala-popova-perevody-v-strany-relokatsii-stali-padat-k-threads-prisposablivayutsya-moshenniki
Edit: Fixed quote
https://thebell.io/chem-opasna-otstavka-generala-popova-perevody-v-strany-relokatsii-stali-padat-k-threads-prisposablivayutsya-moshenniki
quote:
Rumors of the resignation of the commander of the 58th Army, Major General Ivan Popov, were confirmed. His troops defend the key Zaporizhzhya direction
THIS MATERIAL ( INFORMATION ) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE FOREIGN AHENT OF THE BELL LIBO CONCERNING THE ACTIVITIES OF THE FOREIGN AHENT THE BELL. 18 +
On the resignation of Ivan Popov yesterday afternoon wrote associated with PMC « Wagner » Grey Zone channel. According to the channel, the reason was the report of Popov to the chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, in which the army commander insisted on replacing units that suffered significant losses by the killed and wounded. Gerasimov allegedly accused Popov of « misinformation and panicking ». About the same reported channel « VChK-OGPU », adding that Popov was removed by Gerasimov after he announced his readiness to report to Putin personally.
On the eve of the evening, the appeal of Popov himself published former commander of the 58th Army, deputy Andrei Gurulev. Popov confirmed his resignation, claiming that he got rid of « for a day off », after he identified « problem issues » in the army before the leadership. « The situation returned difficult with senior authorities when it was necessary to either shut up and keep quiet, and say what they wanted to hear, or call a spade a spade », — says Popov.
In addition to the fatigue and understaffing of units, Popov emphasized the absence of counter-battery fighting and artillery reconnaissance stations in the Russian Armed Forces, which leads to cases of « mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery ». According to him, the troops say that « the senior boss » struck from the rear, « predatory and meanly decapitated the army at the most difficult and tense moment ».
Probably Popov had in mind the still incomprehensible fate of the commander of the SVO Sergey Surovikin. Surovikin « is now resting and is not yet available », said Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma defense committee, yesterday. Today at the Public Observation Commission of Moscow reported, that it is not in either « Sailor Silence » or « Kremlin Central ».
Why is it important
Firstly, Popov’s resignation means that there is no unity in the Ministry of Defense during the fighting, regardless of the Pogozhinsky riot. Secondly, according to his statement, the 58th army of the YVO, defending the key Zaporizhzhya direction, was weakened precisely in the decisive phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, when the Armed Forces allegedly felt weak points in defense. « Fish » indicates and the direct demoralization of personnel by the resignation of « „ simple “ and „ understandable “ honest general Popov ».
As for the counter-battery struggle, this is a systemic weak place for the Russian Armed Forces: they write about it for decades. The artillery systems supplied by NATO to Ukraine are superior to Russian in accuracy and range, and the radar of art history — in mass and parameters. Recognized by a foreign agent « Agency » recently wrote with reference to the OSINT-project Oryx, which in the south of Ukraine Russia loses with a score of 1: 4 on destroyed howitzers and RSZO, and the numerical advantage of the Russian Armed Forces in these types of weapons melts.
Edit: Fixed quote
This post was edited on 7/14/23 at 4:29 am
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:12 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
money would’ve had been better spent building more ships and navy bases in the Pacific to counter the real threat.
What's the "real threat"?
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:13 am to magildachunks
quote:
What's the "real threat"?
Seriously?
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:14 am to OutsideObserver
A 1/4 artillery loss advantage has to net big results in a few months.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:20 am to OutsideObserver
One of the interesting things about Gen. Popov's comments was his complaint that his troops had not been rotated out.
Russia should have done another mass mobilization in February. They should do another one now. The removal of Wagner's fighters from the battlefield has caused an already bad problem with a lack of reserves to become more critical.
And yet we know that Ukraine has yet to use half of the brigades that were specifically prepared for this offensive. As the attritional nature of this campaign continues, it will be interesting to see if Russia's lack of reserves causes serious problems.
Russia should have done another mass mobilization in February. They should do another one now. The removal of Wagner's fighters from the battlefield has caused an already bad problem with a lack of reserves to become more critical.
And yet we know that Ukraine has yet to use half of the brigades that were specifically prepared for this offensive. As the attritional nature of this campaign continues, it will be interesting to see if Russia's lack of reserves causes serious problems.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:23 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Seriously
Yes
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:26 am to magildachunks
China is the real threat to American dominance and hegemony. Russia is a sideshow. What happens in Ukraine will not affect the average American’s life nor change the status quo in geopolitics one way or the other.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:33 am to GeauxxxTigers23
I agree with you on china; however, I think the war has already impacted geopolitics and will continue to impact them for years to come. What happens inside Russia in the aftermath of the war could have major impacts on us.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:44 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
To be fair, we've haven't exactly gone toe to toe with Goliath since then.
You’re right… point being, what happens if we do face an opponent who can keep the air space contested?… something the US hasn’t faced in 70 years.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:54 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
China is the real threat to American dominance and hegemony. Russia is a sideshow.
But the full extent of Russian weakness has only been shown by this war and the degree to which Ukraine has exposed it.
And, with something like half of its conventional power destroyed now, of course Russia is weak -- really weak -- and will be so for at least the next decade.
But that's a feature of this war and not a bug.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:55 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Have you considered that making china realize they truly stand alone has positive implications in this arena?
China is losing face in this just from Russia struggling, let alone the fact they’re realizing in any hot conflict, russia won’t be able to do jack shite. That is going to change their calculus.
China is losing face in this just from Russia struggling, let alone the fact they’re realizing in any hot conflict, russia won’t be able to do jack shite. That is going to change their calculus.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 7:56 am to GOP_Tiger
No, even when Russia was stronger before the war they were second fiddle to China. China has been the only real challenger to America in at least 2 decades.
Posted on 7/14/23 at 8:02 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
, even when Russia was stronger before the war they were second fiddle to China. China has been the only real challenger to America in at least 2 decades.
China relies on Russian equipment for its military, like having to buy Russian engines for its airforce.
China doesn't develop new military tech, it steals or purchases it.
The Chinese military has no real combat experience or effective military doctrine.
The population is aging out of combat service range and the economy is a precarious house of cards that is about to tip.
They are not a threat.
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