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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/13/23 at 7:55 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 7/13/23 at 7:55 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
They have much more combat experience than any Western military.
One of the big unanswered questions from this war is how attrited is the Ukrainian military. How many of the soldiers who fought on Day 1 of the war are still fighting today? Those are the soldiers who had the most experience and training.
Ukraine is still a "young" military, they only adopted a NATO-style military structure and training regime after the 2014 Donbas invasion. They had been building a solid non-commissioned officer corps up to the start of the war. How many of those Sgts are still in the fight? Of course, they have some highly experienced troops now, but how many of them?
We also continue to read stories that some of the Ukrainian command isn't as versed in Western-style combat operations and still tends toward the "throw them in the meat grinder" style attacks.
Ukraine will emerge from this war (Assuming they either win or reach a negotiated settlement) as a very veteran army. They will be formidable. They will be the 3rd best army in the European theater (US, Poland, Ukraine)
A lot of Ukrainian soldiers have been in combat now for over a year and those from the Donbas area have been in combat for years. They have a lot of combat experience in their army.
This post was edited on 7/13/23 at 8:08 pm
2
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:07 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
So, Western aid has largely been older equipment, used by soldiers with very little or no training. But they've stopped the Russian forward movement and have retaken occupied territories
It just doesn’t matter what you have if you can’t establish air superiority… anything close to parity in ground forces/equipment will result in some form of trench warfare and a stalemate.
Heard a stat a couple days ago…. The last US ground troop to lose his life from an enemy aircraft was 1953… fact is we here in the US have no clue what we would do with contested skies.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:08 pm to Chromdome35
Uhhh?
russian TG is saying that
ukraine knew about the upcoming attack from the 1GTA
they have prepped the battle field.
they knew the attack rout
and they knew the units
and when they were going to attack....
so what could go wrong there????
just how long do you think it will take to get to 300k??? only 64K to go... and the 1GTA with the rest of the central military district has about... 75K alone.
or its about 1.333 troops per cluster bomb.
and yes they are attacking in the open.
LINK
russia is trying a battle of the bulge attack directly into a reinforced easy to defend area in the open where 3 arty brigades are with nice new cluster bombs.
LINK
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army is going to cease to exist if they keep up the zombie attacks (if this is true). Weren't they the crew that got nearly eliminated in the Kharkiv offensive?
russian TG is saying that
ukraine knew about the upcoming attack from the 1GTA
they have prepped the battle field.
they knew the attack rout
and they knew the units
and when they were going to attack....
so what could go wrong there????
just how long do you think it will take to get to 300k??? only 64K to go... and the 1GTA with the rest of the central military district has about... 75K alone.
or its about 1.333 troops per cluster bomb.
and yes they are attacking in the open.
LINK
russia is trying a battle of the bulge attack directly into a reinforced easy to defend area in the open where 3 arty brigades are with nice new cluster bombs.
LINK
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army is going to cease to exist if they keep up the zombie attacks (if this is true). Weren't they the crew that got nearly eliminated in the Kharkiv offensive?
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:10 pm to lowspark12
Our air assets have not operated in contested air space in decades.
We also have not operated in areas saturated with Manpads. Even if the US took out Russia's main air defense network, it would still have to contend with the MANPAD threat.
We also have not operated in areas saturated with Manpads. Even if the US took out Russia's main air defense network, it would still have to contend with the MANPAD threat.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:12 pm to jefffan
They have been mauled twice before, the first time in the opening phase of the war and the second during the Kharkiv offensive.
Looks like they are going for the hat trick.
Looks like they are going for the hat trick.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:14 pm to lowspark12
quote:
The last US ground troop to lose his life from an enemy aircraft was 1953
Amazing
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:14 pm to Chromdome35
Right… our entire doctrine revolves around quickly gaining air superiority and maintaining it. What happens if we don’t? The US is behind in developing ground based rocket systems bc of this thinking.
it truly does suck… but the lessons learned over the last 16 months are huge.
it truly does suck… but the lessons learned over the last 16 months are huge.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:23 pm to Darth_Vader
Ukraine had no choice on timing the offensive.
There’s a presidential election in 24 and NATO will not back this war endlessly.
There’s a presidential election in 24 and NATO will not back this war endlessly.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:03 pm to nitwit
quote:
Ukraine had no choice on timing the offensive. There’s a presidential election in 24 and NATO will not back this war endlessly.
Politics may have lost them the war. They’ve shot their bolt on this offensive. Will they be able to ever regain the initiative? I’m doubtful. At this point I think the fighting will continue for some months to come before Ukraine is forced to sue for peace. What that peace looks like; Who knows?
Had politics not overruled actual strategy, they’d have traded space for time, even letting the the Russians advance further into Ukraine to keep them on the offensive. Make the Russians think they’re winning based on the territory they’re conquering, all the while bleeding the Russian army and extending it supply lines.
Then, when the time is right, for example in the spring of 2024, and the Ukrainian’s have those now fully trained brigades, capable of working together as an entire corps or perhaps even army sized formation, backed up by air support that they’ve had time to train with, then they launch their offensive.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:08 pm to Darth_Vader
They should have tried for peace at the beginning but everyone wanted to fan the flames instead.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:16 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I’ve thought from the beginning these units were hastily trained and thrown into combat, all without adequate air cover.
You can’t put together something like a mechanized brigade from scratch, train it for a few months, and expect it to do much. It takes at least a year before they become a cohesive force. And even then, you ease them into combat in more quiet sectors. You don’t use them as the spearhead of a major offensive.
These new brigades were not given that. Now, they’re thrown into the meat grinder, and they’re having to do it without even a whisper of air cover on top of that.
The best combat equipment in the world does no good if it’s not properly employed and supported.
I kinda think that this is where NATO equipment is going to end up making a big difference, though.
Take the 47th Mechanized Brigade, a new brigade mainly using Bradleys on the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis.
They have lost 32 Bradleys. Most of them have been recovered by Ukraine, and some will be repaired and returned to action, but the key point is this ... the guys in those Bradleys survived and can continue to fight.
If those were 32 BMPs, most of the guys in them would be dead, and the 47th would have had its combat power reduced to the point that it would be combat ineffective at this point, and they would have stalled or been rotated out.
Instead, the US has simply replaced the Bradleys, and the guys fighting in them have been allowed to learn from the mistakes that would have left them dead if fighting from BMPs.
And so, after some five weeks of fighting, we're seeing the 47th make some real progress, advancing 1 km yesterday at taking and occupying the first serious Russian line of fortifications.
This post was edited on 7/13/23 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:26 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
One of the big unanswered questions from this war is how attrited is the Ukrainian military. How many of the soldiers who fought on Day 1 of the war are still fighting today? Those are the soldiers who had the most experience and training.
The Swiss Army can field 500,000 from a population of 8 million. Ukraine's population is around 44 million.
Ukraine has the will to fight and deeply held animosities toward Moscow. Stalin's mass murders of Ukrainians is still within living cultural memory.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:29 pm to Landmass
quote:
They should have tried for peace at the beginning but everyone wanted to fan the flames instead.
What good is a treaty with Russia even if Russia agreed to one. They don’t honor treaties.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:30 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
They’ve shot their bolt on this offensive.
No, they haven't. They have still used less than half of the new brigades specially formed for this offensive. We still have not seen a single Stryker or Challenger on the battlefield. I don't think we've seen any Marders either.
I expect cluster munitions to make a significant difference.
And, with the exception of the first day of the offensive, Ukraine has destroyed more Russian equipment than they have lost themselves. And they have especially had success in targeting Russian artillery. That's why Ukraine's deputy defense minister said today that, in the South, "Due to the fact that our soldiers destroy enemy equipment depots on a daily basis, the number of enemy attacks has slightly decreased."
So, my view is that Ukraine is having success in the attritional battles in the South. Ukraine still has immense amounts of Western armor and other equipment on the way: over 100 Leopard 1 tanks, GLSDB, Abrams, etc. -- while Russia digs out rusted T-55s from deep storage.
Yes, Ukraine is advancing slowly, but they are advancing, and they are doing so in a sustainable way. There's nothing that would cause the offensive to culminate before winter.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:51 pm to nitwit
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Former Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov claimed in leaked audio that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems on the western Zaporizhia Oblast frontline to senior commanders.
Popov likely attempted to appeal to the Kremlin to partially or fully strip Gerasimov of command over operations in Ukraine.
Gerasimov may have tried to shield Putin from unwanted criticism to uphold Putin’s ignorance by firing Popov before he could appeal directly to the Kremlin.
Popov’s attempt to directly appeal to Putin for support and his insubordination of Gerasimov’s command is indicative of a pattern of corrosive behavior that has developed within the Russian command and the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
Russian milbloggers expressed varied reactions to Popov’s dismissal, though none disagreed with Popov’s complaints about problems Russian forces experience on the front.
Disruptions to the Russian command overseeing Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine will likely have some immediate but marginal impacts on Russian forces.
Popov’s dismissal over the issue of Russian casualties and reported complaints about lack of force rotations further supports ISW’s assessment that Russian defenses in Ukraine are likely brittle
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 13 and made gains in some areas.
The Kremlin reportedly ordered the detention and suspension of several senior military officers following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24, supporting ISW’s prior assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal.
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 13.
Russian and Ukrainian sources engaged in positional battles near Kreminna.
Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian forces reported conducting limited offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and made some gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of July 13.
Russia may not be fulfilling some of its commitments to Iran in their bilateral security partnership, even as the Russian military continues to rely heavily on Iranian-made drones in Ukraine.
The Associated Press (AP) reported on July 13 that Russian forces and occupation administrations are conducting a wide scale campaign to detain and abuse civilians and are planning to build additional internment infrastructure in the occupied territories.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:53 pm to Auburn1968
What is our ROI on the $ trillion that we handed to them of taxpayer money?
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:54 pm to Landmass
quote:
They should have tried for peace at the beginning but everyone wanted to fan the flames instead.
THIS IS WHAT POLIBOARDERS ACTUALLY BELIEVE
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:58 pm to lowspark12
quote:
The last US ground troop to lose his life from an enemy aircraft was 1953
If true - that is bonkers.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 10:00 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
If true - that is bonkers.
To be fair, we've haven't exactly gone toe to toe with Goliath since then.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 10:03 pm to Landmass
quote:
What is our ROI on the $ trillion that we handed to them of taxpayer money?
Incredible value. Two years ago, if you had told me that we could destroy half of Russia's conventional military, expand NATO by adding Sweden and Finland, dramatically expand the NATO defense industrial base, and enable American weapons manufacturers to generate huge orders from around the world ... all for the low price of $100 billion, without the cost of the life of a single American serviceman?
Oh yeah! That's a good deal.
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