- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/1/23 at 4:00 pm to IAmNERD
Posted on 7/1/23 at 4:00 pm to IAmNERD
Basically I think Ukraine sees it as you have to fight the Russians hard somewhere so why not let it be in a place that has already been wiped off the map? Bakhmut does not exist anymore. The name of the game is killing Russians, better to do it somewhere already destroyed versus destroying more of their land. Anywhere they can push them back they are going to do it and right now the south of Bakhmut looks to be a weak spot for the Russians.
1
Posted on 7/1/23 at 4:36 pm to LSUPilot07
They don't even have to take the town itself.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 5:10 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
Can someone with a better understanding of tactics and strategy than myself make Bakhmut make sense to me?
I'll give it a shot. You definitely need to keep in mind that wars are not always won and lost strictly by what happens on the battlefield, but on morale and the emotional forces that guide a nation. The US didn't lose Afghanistan because of a lost battle; we were defeated because we lost the will to fight and the Taliban did not.
A year ago, Bakhmut was of significant strategic importance. As Russia was completing its capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansik, Russia was hopeful that it could finish the task of capturing the Donbas -- one of the key objectives that Vladimir Putin had laid out as a reason for the invasion.
To do this, Russia needed to capture the key cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Sloviansk was of particular emotional importance, because it's where the war began back in 2014. Capturing these cities would involve pushing south from Izium and west through Bakhmut.
So, a year ago, the capture of Bakhmut was THE key objective, as Russia ran into repeated difficulty in pushing south from Izium. Taking Bakhmut and then pushing along the highway towards Sloviansk would put the city in a vise.
Of course, after the Kharkiv offensive in September, the Russian strategic objective of conquering the entirety of the Donbas became unrealistic, as Russia no longer possessed Izium or even Lyman.
But of course Russia couldn't admit this! No, they had to pretend that mobilization would allow them to pursue a new offensive which would retake Lyman and Izium -- in addition to pushing through Bakhmut.
So, in Russian fantasyland (which Putin probably still believed going into Russia's winter offensive), Bakhmut was still of significant strategic importance.
That's why Putin was happy to have Wagner fight here and take the city.
As we know, Wagner almost completely enveloped the city, even to the point that Ukraine briefly didn't have a road in and out of the city, but Gen. Syrsky and the rest of the Ukrainian command rejected the view of the pundits (and me and others here) that the fight for the city should be abandoned in favor of fighting on higher ground. "Bakhmut Holds!" became a rallying cry for Ukraine, and as the rest of Russia's offensive prospects faltered, the capture of the city took on monumental importance for Russian morale as well.
But Ukraine's fight forced Wagner to use up much of its force. A week ago, Wagner had less than half of the men that they had at their peak. And Ukraine's fierce resistance caused Prigozhin to miss the deadline Putin had given him of completing the taking of the city by Victory Day on May 9th.
The loss of so many of his men, combined with his failure to get the reward he'd hoped for, pushed Prigozhin closer and closer to the edge, until he finally went over it.
And that has now led to the permanent removal of Wagner from the battlefield. Wagner, by far Russia's best fighting force and the unit responsible for only Russian success of the last 12 months, will fight in Ukraine no more. And that dispute has caused considerable disruption to Russian morale, as Putin looks weak and Russian officers up and down the chain of command are evaluated for the loyalty to the regime.
... to be continued
Posted on 7/1/23 at 5:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
So, at the present, Bakhmut is not of strategic importance in the strict military sense, but the city has tremendous importance in the political and emotional arenas.
Ukraine is now prioritizing the retaking of Bakhmut for several reasons:
1) Progress in its offensive in the south is slow. American military aid money is running out. To convince Congress to approve another large aid package, Ukraine needs to show that the aid that we've been giving them works, and that they have the ability to retake significant territory.
In the next six weeks, during which time Congress will be debating the next aid package, Ukraine needs a prize to show off to show Americans that more aid is worth it, and the odds of that are increasingly slim in the south.
In contrast to the south, where the terrain is open and flat and Russian drones, the Bakhmut area is hilly and wooded. In addition, Russia has not built up the same kind of defensive lines in this area that it has in the south.
In short, retaking Bakhmut is much easier than taking Tokmak or a similar city in the south.
2) The taking of Bakhmut has tremendous potential to damage Russian morale. Today, when one Russian asks another "What have we accomplished in the last 12 months?", the response can be, "Well, we took Bakhmut."
Imagine the frustration level of the Russian public when even that is taken away, when their military is humiliated by losing the only ground that Russia has sacrificed so much to gain in the last year. When the answer is "We've not only not gained anything in the last 12 months, we've lost ground," then the demand will grow for peace.
3) The fall of Bakhmut would also dramatically increase friction with the Russian MoD. The Russian public will conclude that Prigozhin was right: Shoigu and Gerasimov are idiots and thieves, and Putin is foolish and corrupt for leaving them in place.
The odds for internal Russian strife and/or another coup attempt then go WAY up.
So, there's now tremendous strategic value in the Ukrainian effort to retake Bakhmut. If Russia does not wish for the city to fall, it will need to redeploy troops from another area of the front, as they now have no operational reserve. Normally, Wagner would be rotating back into a section of the front right now, but of course those 15,000 troops are gone forever.
Ukraine is now prioritizing the retaking of Bakhmut for several reasons:
1) Progress in its offensive in the south is slow. American military aid money is running out. To convince Congress to approve another large aid package, Ukraine needs to show that the aid that we've been giving them works, and that they have the ability to retake significant territory.
In the next six weeks, during which time Congress will be debating the next aid package, Ukraine needs a prize to show off to show Americans that more aid is worth it, and the odds of that are increasingly slim in the south.
In contrast to the south, where the terrain is open and flat and Russian drones, the Bakhmut area is hilly and wooded. In addition, Russia has not built up the same kind of defensive lines in this area that it has in the south.
In short, retaking Bakhmut is much easier than taking Tokmak or a similar city in the south.
2) The taking of Bakhmut has tremendous potential to damage Russian morale. Today, when one Russian asks another "What have we accomplished in the last 12 months?", the response can be, "Well, we took Bakhmut."
Imagine the frustration level of the Russian public when even that is taken away, when their military is humiliated by losing the only ground that Russia has sacrificed so much to gain in the last year. When the answer is "We've not only not gained anything in the last 12 months, we've lost ground," then the demand will grow for peace.
3) The fall of Bakhmut would also dramatically increase friction with the Russian MoD. The Russian public will conclude that Prigozhin was right: Shoigu and Gerasimov are idiots and thieves, and Putin is foolish and corrupt for leaving them in place.
The odds for internal Russian strife and/or another coup attempt then go WAY up.
So, there's now tremendous strategic value in the Ukrainian effort to retake Bakhmut. If Russia does not wish for the city to fall, it will need to redeploy troops from another area of the front, as they now have no operational reserve. Normally, Wagner would be rotating back into a section of the front right now, but of course those 15,000 troops are gone forever.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 5:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Thanks for this explanation.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 5:58 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
Can someone with a better understanding of tactics and strategy than myself make Bakhmut make sense to me?
Russia started their winter offensive and soon Bakhmut became the focus. Western military strategists and even the Ukrainian MoD said for months that the city wasn't a key part strategically to the war. So we all sat back as Wagner threw their prison conscripts into the meat grinder and thought that this was just a "bleed them white" type of situation playing out. That continues for months with slow progress made by the Russians and then one night Zelensky notes in his daily update that Bakhmut IS a key part of the war and that if it falls, the entire front in the area is ripe for collapse with the Russians having easy access to a couple more key cities in front of them. So they keep the supply road open for a few more months and continue to make the Russians pay for every inch.
During this stage everyone is saying that this is great because despite Zelensky's claims, it still isn't very important other than maybe symbolically for both sides now, but they will defend the city til the last meter to buy as much time to buildup, train, and equip for the spring/summer counter offensive that is currently going on. And they did their job, yet, those key cities behind them, Russia never made any play for them. So things stagnate as Wagner withdraws and hands the city over to the Russian regular forces.
The buildup of equipment and training of new men seems to be as good as it's going to get and the UAF starts on its long awaited counteroffensive. It starts off with a disaster in one area and makes small gains in a couple other areas. Now, as you said, Bakhmut and it's surroundings are hot again and UAF are throwing in at least one, and possibly another, of their new brigades here.
Sorry for the long winded recap, but if the place was of such little strategic value, why commit such valuable forces to retake a city that they've already lost and claimed wasn't all that important in the first place? Does it have to do with how little it has been fortified due to all the fighting in the sector while other parts were built up while the world's focus was on Bakhmut? I'd honestly like to try and understand the reasoning here.
Good recap and not long winded at all.
There were 2 different wars being fought in my view in the conflict as a whole, representing 2 different approaches to destroying their opponents morale.
Ukraine is looking to break the Russian army specifically which represents their more limited manpower options, and they see it's command and logistics structure as bloated and the likely fulcrum for any victory. This is reflected in the command and logistical nature of their deep strikes. Bahkmut was far easier area to defend than open areas of land and keeping the Russian focus on it during the winter was important as the lack of mobility severely limited Ukraine as it is one of the strengths their success at breaking Russian morale hinges upon. I saw Zelenskys comments purely as leaning into keeping Russia focused there as at the time they were threatening further south as well at the same time.
Russia is looking to break Ukraine itself which is in line with a country looking to occupy another, and again their deep strikes reflect this approach having seen a far broader focus on non-military targets coupled with their slowing of things down as much as possible to strain Western attention and commitment. Russia's Bahkmut strategy was to use cheap troops to take the Ukrainian bait and perhaps make a breakthrough while they solidified their defence lines to counter Ukraine's better mobility during warmer weather.
Both of these are valid strategies with pro and cons and anyone claiming the hammer was going to come down with a Ukrainian counter offensive in a quick and bloodless breakthrough or that their immediate lack of success means it is a complete failure is not someone I would recommend listening to in terms of strategic opinion. These views encapsulate the fallacy of thinking that near real time information streams gives a complete picture of the war. The reality is that 95% of everything still takes place off screen and is slow and methodical, especially given the constraints on both sides. One thing the last month or so with the dam and Wagner events has shown is that war is anything but predictable and rushing in is not the best idea.
Pertaining to the renewed fight on Bahkmut itself - as others have said taking it back again would be a blow to Russian morale and should, in theory, be easier since the fluid nature of the recent attacks to take it by Russia means they have not established the defence in depth they have elsewhere. Though Ukraine is more likely to encircle and cut off to force a retreat rather than rely on direct assault. If successful it strains Russia in another direction, stretching their command and supply.
I can't link it right now since I first ran into it on Twitter and am "rate limited" for an unspecified amount of time, but the Russian MoD has put out a video comparing the capture of Bahmkut to that of Mariupol and that Bahkmut was not an significant victory. This is partially being used to denigrate Wagner but it is also very interesting they are putting this out now that Ukrainian efforts looks to be intensifying in the area.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/1/23 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 7/1/23 at 6:09 pm to OutsideObserver
Russian media (all of it, all the time) is about propaganda. While I have issues with our MSM for decades due they are all dullards regardless of level of education. It is not 100% about propaganda
Posted on 7/1/23 at 7:39 pm to CitizenK
And the Ruble keeps on sliding...
The rest of the BRICS currencies except the Real have seen similar declines over the last year, how long was it supposed to be before the $ was replaced? Seems like a COL Macgregor prediction in hindsight.
The rest of the BRICS currencies except the Real have seen similar declines over the last year, how long was it supposed to be before the $ was replaced? Seems like a COL Macgregor prediction in hindsight.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 8:16 pm to Obtuse1
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1.
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected.
Russian officials and sources celebrated claims that Russian forces defeated small-scale Ukrainian landings in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on July 1 as if they had won a major victory.
The exaggerated Russian praise for defeating a small Ukrainian landing suggests either that the Russian military command sincerely fears a Ukrainian attack on east bank Kherson Oblast or that it is desperate for an informational victory following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion or both.
Russian forces are likely responding to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut by pulling forces from elsewhere in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russians might initiate an intentional radioactive leak at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as part of a potential Russian strategy to freeze the war.
Russian propagandists are likely conducting an information campaign to destroy the Wagner Group’s reputation as a uniquely effective fighting force in support of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) effort to dismantle the Wagner Group and integrate former Wagner fighters into MoD structures.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks in and transfer airborne (VDV) elements to the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces continued to counterattack recently-liberated Ukrainian positions on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian security procedures on the Kerch Strait bridge are likely slowing down Russian logistics from Russia to occupied Crimea.
Iran may be sending materiel and personnel to Russia to help construct a factory in the Republic of Tatarstan that will reportedly make Iranian combat drones.
Ukrainian and Western sources continue to report on the abductions of Ukrainian children and adults in the occupied territories.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 8:41 pm to tigeraddict
Russia going after Bakhmut = retarded
Ukraine going after Bakhmut = good strategy
Ukraine going after Bakhmut = good strategy
Posted on 7/1/23 at 8:46 pm to OutsideObserver
I appreciate the responses to my earlier question regarding why the renewed interest in taking back Bakhmut. It seems that the only logical explanation that I can come up with is pretty much the consensus around here as well: Right now, it's just the easier path forward since there was no time to build up significant defensive lines in the area compared to other places.
I guess I was overthinking things and didn't really see the significance in trying to retake the city. Especially using some of the newly formed units and equipment (if that's the case...I haven't seen any evidence of the new equipment in or around Bakhmut yet, but it might be). I was thinking they would focus that new equipment to the south of Bakhmut, but that's probably just me getting tunnel vision and focusing on cutting off Crimea.
Again, thanks for the insights.
I guess I was overthinking things and didn't really see the significance in trying to retake the city. Especially using some of the newly formed units and equipment (if that's the case...I haven't seen any evidence of the new equipment in or around Bakhmut yet, but it might be). I was thinking they would focus that new equipment to the south of Bakhmut, but that's probably just me getting tunnel vision and focusing on cutting off Crimea.
Again, thanks for the insights.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 9:14 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
how long was it supposed to be before the $ was replaced?
It would be fun to go bump several threads predicting this from the PT board.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 9:49 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
And the Ruble keeps on sliding...
Poster scruffy still thinks we've made Russia stronger economically.
Posted on 7/1/23 at 11:04 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
I can't link it right now since I first ran into it on Twitter and am "rate limited" for an unspecified amount of time, but the Russian MoD has put out a video comparing the capture of Bahmkut to that of Mariupol and that Bahkmut was not an significant victory. This is partially being used to denigrate Wagner but it is also very interesting they are putting this out now that Ukrainian efforts looks to be intensifying in the area.
This was the video I referred to earlier
quote:
Russian state TV is now doubting the effectiveness of Wagner which took much longer to "liberate a less important Bakhmut" in comparison to Mariupol". Hilarious.
The biggest irony is that this will actually work and in a few weeks, Wagner will be condemned by Russians who get all their news from TV.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1675058889249681409 - Video
Posted on 7/1/23 at 11:11 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
And the Ruble keeps on sliding...
The rest of the BRICS currencies except the Real have seen similar declines over the last year, how long was it supposed to be before the $ was replaced? Seems like a COL Macgregor prediction in hindsight.
Interesting, and in my view on point, read concerning this and what is likely really happening behind the official story from Russia regarding their economy if you ignore the finger waging regarding Putin's criminal status.
https://twitter.com/Beefeater_Fella/status/1674898309117255681
quote:
According to indicted #WarCriminal and his FSB controlled Central Bank , Russia’s inflation forecast as stated on their website is: “given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 4.5–6.5% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024”.
This comical official projection is being used by the state to claim that Russia is not in trouble with it’s economy, as it suffers historic deficits and catastrophic effects arising from being the most sanctioned country on earth.
Russia stopped reporting verifiable and accurate data to the WMF and World Bank in 2022, classifying financial data in law as a strategic weapon - of sorts. You don’t need a degree in economics to figure out something isn’t right with that projection when they announce this:
“From October 1, the Russian military will increase the allowance by 10.5%. Salaries will increase for contractors and conscripts. Also, the salary of employees of the National Guard, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, customs officers and firefighters will increase.”
Context:
In Russia the state is the single largest employer, owning over 539,000 enterprises in Russia, more than 50% of all employed people in Russia work for the regime headed by indicted #WarCriminal Vladimir Putin. The military is the largest single employer as a category of Russian state employers.
Pay increase / Inflation death spiral formula.
Solvent countries don’t increase salaries twice the level of inflation. Inflation and wage increases tend to follow the same trend, but don’t keep pace with one another. Salary increases should be significantly below inflation to prevent a hyper-inflation spiral that will bankrupt a country. Awarding pay increases above the rate of inflation will supercharge inflation into an irreversible death spiral.
https://cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/
https://t.me/moscowmap/55698
https://merchantmaverick.com/how-inflation-affects-salary-and-payroll/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_Russia
Posted on 7/1/23 at 11:32 pm to OutsideObserver
Russia often doesn't lay off workers of state owned businesses but they have to either work without pay or get sent home without pay but still employed. This has been a thing even without the war drain on its economy.
Posted on 7/2/23 at 1:02 am to CitizenK
When does it take a basket of rubles to buy a loaf a bread. The oligarch have lost billions since this started. Kings and Empires have died for much less. Tic tick tick
Posted on 7/2/23 at 4:51 am to TutHillTiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 July 2023
Russia has cancelled the 2023 iteration of MAKS, its premier international air show. Scheduled every other year, MAKS takes place near Moscow and showcases Russia's civil and military aerospace sectors and has become key to securing export customers.
The show has probably been cancelled largely due to genuine security concerns, following recent uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks inside Russia. Organisers were highly likely also aware of the potential for reputational damage if fewer international delegations attended.
The war has been exceptionally challenging for Russia's aerospace community. The sector is struggling under international sanctions; highly trained specialists are being encouraged to serve as infantry in the Roscosmos space agency's own militia. Meanwhile, Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces, General Sergei Surovikin, has not been seen in public since the abortive mutiny by Wagner Group, for whom he served as point of contact with the Russian Ministry of Defence.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 July 2023
Russia has cancelled the 2023 iteration of MAKS, its premier international air show. Scheduled every other year, MAKS takes place near Moscow and showcases Russia's civil and military aerospace sectors and has become key to securing export customers.
The show has probably been cancelled largely due to genuine security concerns, following recent uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks inside Russia. Organisers were highly likely also aware of the potential for reputational damage if fewer international delegations attended.
The war has been exceptionally challenging for Russia's aerospace community. The sector is struggling under international sanctions; highly trained specialists are being encouraged to serve as infantry in the Roscosmos space agency's own militia. Meanwhile, Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces, General Sergei Surovikin, has not been seen in public since the abortive mutiny by Wagner Group, for whom he served as point of contact with the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Posted on 7/2/23 at 8:50 am to cypher
Posted on 7/2/23 at 9:43 am to Mr Happy
Random tweets
LINK
From RWA
LINK
LINK
quote:
??There was an explosion near the military airfield in Primorsk-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Territory (russia), – russian media.
Photo from social networks.
About drones in the war
LINK
From RWA
quote:
A protest in Kiev, demanding that the authorities take action to expand existing military cemeteries and build new ones because there's nowhere to bury all the fallen.
There's a lot of cope on the Z side about civilians on the enemy's side becoming war-weary or taking collective action to try and end the war. I don't see much of that. What they want is space to bury their friends and family. Those cemeteries are going to get fuller and fuller.
LINK
quote:
Incidents involving Russian spies using Brazilian citizenship are being investigated in Brazil - The Wall Street Journal
Brazilian authorities want to find out if Moscow is using the country as an incubator for undercover agents, the newspaper notes.
The newspaper reminds of the story of Sergei Cherkasov, a Russian who tried to get a job at the International Criminal Court in The Hague in 2018 under the name of Brazilian Victor Muller Ferreira.
The WSJ also tells of Russian citizen Mikhail Mikushin, arrested on suspicion of espionage in northern Norway - he worked as a researcher at the University of Tromsø under the Brazilian name Jose Assis Giammaria, and previously spent years at universities in Canada under that name.
According to WSJ sources, Brazilian investigators believe other Russian spies with Brazilian passports may be hiding in the country or around the world.
LINK
Page 2989 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News