re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Putin’s spokesperson is clarifying his boss statements now, and says that if Ukrainian F-16 will operate from airfields outside Ukraine, Russia will try to destroy them only over Ukraine

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I mean, im pretty pro-ukes here… but if F16’s were operating out of a NATO country by or on behalf of Ukraine, I would find it reasonable to destroy them wherever they were stationed.

Im actually surprised they are clarifying that they would only destroy them over Ukraine. This seems like a big crawfish from Russia. They’ve gone on record before saying that even giving them weapons makes you a target…

You may be right.
May have been some big time poker here, with US saying "Not only do we intend to provide F-16's but they will be based elsewhere (in NATO). Whatcha gonna do about it?"
For Ruskies to threaten the bases would bring all of NATO conventional sources into the war.
The spokesperson seems to be saying,
"We are not threatening the bases".
Is that what just happened?

I think it’s more complex than that.

We’ve been pretty clear about not striking Russia directly outside of Ukraine, even though they are completely justified in doing so.

Russia saying they will leave planes alone unless they are directly over UA is an extension of that agreement.

Everyone wants actual fighting to happen in UA and no where else. UA is turning into a wrestling ring.

UA was a wrestling ring on day 1.
The match was supposed to only last three days.
Its still the ring, although Ukes are making some across the border forays.

Iran. Don't forget Iran.

And Syria.

Russia and Putin will walk away from this with a bloody nose and a bit less swagger but they are going nowhere and are much more important geopolitically than Ukraine, once the shooting stops everything goes back to normal.

We are simply doing to Russia what they did to us many times before, this is not WW3 and other than on TV and in online chat rooms everyone gets it.

This is from a woman who is a journalist and a former aide to Zelensky:

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The centre of the fighting in Ukraine has switched to the road to Mariupol where the Ukrainian offensive is slowly pushing back Russian forces, with British Challenger tanks ready to join battle, a deputy minister Hanna Maliar in Kyiv has said.

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LINK

This would mean the Vuhledar direction.

Edit: I have no idea why Ukraine would announce that Challenger tanks are going to be fighting there.

Things picked up on the rounds.

The first of a multiple part series that takes a very in depth analysis of Russian mobilisation and how these troops are being used by, a reportedly Russian based, independent analysis team.

This part is about how mobilisation was conducted and goes through the different regions in a high degree of detail. I recommend reading the entire article, the conclusion I have quoted below.

https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-in-russia-1

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To conclude, it is safe to assume that the announcement of mobilization came as a surprise not only for the Russian population, but also for the MoD. We provided ample evidence of that in our overview of issues related to allocation of the newly drafted recruits within the MoD’s infrastructure, let alone multiple cases when soldiers had to be quartered in civilian buildings. Moreover, lodging facilities were woefully unequipped to accommodate draftees, with many barracks failing to provide beds and mattresses and utilities being in poor condition. This assumption is further corroborated by the fact that tent camps had to be built on the territory of multiple units and training grounds. It was not until days or even weeks after the launch of mobilization that the tents started popping up, revealing that the MoD struggled to keep pace with the rapid turn of events. At the same time, in many cases, regional authorities had to contribute heavily to the construction of tents, as the MoD proved to be unable to cope with this task on its own.

As observed in our analysis of training capacities and their attribution to specific regions, the manner in which regions were merged into larger groups corresponding to the old military administrative division of the country may also indicate that the MoD was caught unprepared for mobilization. Furthermore, it can be suggested that in its pursuit of the "partial" mobilization in the fall of 2022, the MoD relied on the mobilization plans developed long before the 2010 reform of military districts (the groups of regions we identified are based on the boundaries of military districts established back in 1998).

Overall, despite a large number of problems encountered at the initial stage, and aside from sloppy logistics and poor combat readiness of fresh draftees, the authorities managed to accomplish the main goal of mobilization, having enrolled the targeted number of men for service in Russia’s Armed Forces. Public discontent failed to trigger any major civil unrest across Russia, while occasional local protests (e.g. those in Russia’s constituent republics of Tuva and Dagestan) were quickly suppressed before they could spread. As to mobilized troops, their dissent almost never escalated beyond videos exposing the chaos at the training centers and tent camps, or public appeals seeking help from the authorities. Few cases of mass protests (e.g. those involving draftees from Chuvashia who staged a riot¹, ² in a military unit in Ulyanovsk, draftees from the Kazan Higher Tank Command School¹, ², and draftees from Tomsk stationed at the tent camp in Chebarkul) were promptly quashed by the authorities and did not evolve into significant outbreaks. Isolated outbursts of confrontation between soldiers and commanders resulted in criminal convictions for the former (Aleksandr Leshkov of the 1430th Regiment who pushed an officer at the Patriot Park in the Moscow region was sentenced to seven years in a maximum security penal colony; Stanislav Rybin who threatened an officer with a knife received a six-year sentence).

Typically, draftees were assigned to a training center within a military district they were mobilized from, to be given three months of training. Training quality and scope varied significantly, depending rather on the training facility than on the duration of the course. However, considering the actual amount of time spent in training, lack of competent instructors, and an upsurge of complaints from mobilized soldiers themselves (regardless of the region they were trained in), the level of training can in general be estimated as rather low. Widespread assumptions that mobilized personnel would only be assigned to "protect the liberated territories" also affected the training outcome. While some of the draftees were still in training, others started to deploy to the frontlines as early as in late September. This process was completed by early January, by which point most of the mobilized troops had been moved to the combat zone or areas nearby.

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Checking their website, it is not a long stream of pro any side talking points, instead focusing on calling out and analysing claims by various medias, especially Russian state media, going back to 2015.

https://citeam.org/



For anyone interested in the more technical aspect of OSINT - Brady Africk has a quick thread on how aircraft are identified and tracked using satellites.

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1669815386349486084



Great short (for him at least) thread from Tartarigami on the challenges Ukraine faces with mines during the counter offensive.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1669746591299764225

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Mines pose a significant challenge for our army during the counter-offensive. As I've highlighted months ago, the difficulty lies in effectively tackling this issue while dealing with the constant threat of fire from enemy aircraft, AT weaponry, and artillery.

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Post of the day if true.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1669819305259671559 - Video

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Fire in the Belgorod Ministry of Emergency Situations

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Edit: Clarity

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The only above the equator people to side with Putin are Politards and those who immediately surround Lukashenko. Tucker the stupid phucker is also one of Putin's admirers.

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1) stop being so emotional. This war really isn’t that big of a deal in grand scheme of things

2) nearly every country that supports Russia is north of the equator. The only country I can think of that is in the southern hemisphere is South Africa